No matter how many idiots say Apple is launching a car brand they will not make it true.
While I agree with your post, the Apple Brand is an asset. The Apple Brand is most useful to those without a brand, but using the brand is a risk. My conclusion there is a <= 5% chance that a Apple branded car might be built in China.
For everything else, there is lots Apple could do well that current car makers don't do well:-
- Car software
- FSD hardware and software
- Chips and electrical components.
What Apple does not do is:-
- Battery manufacturing
- Casting - Materials science
- Car design and engineering
- Making manufacturing equipment
Elon has stated Tesla wants to be best at manufacturing because others will eventually have good EVs with FSD.
People assume existing car makers are better at manufacturing than Tesla, and up to the last year or so that was correct.
But Tesla is pulling ahead, casting is a big part of that, and something that can't be quickly replicated.
So IMO Apple will either help American and European car makers fend off Chinese competition, or help the Chinese out compete the Americans and Europeans (excluding Tesla and possibly VW).
Even given the remote possibility that an Apple branded car is built in China, it is an equally improbable event that the combination of Apple and China could out complete Tesla on manufacturing. Even if that was possible, it may take decades to achieve. (or end up being insignificant).
So if Apple comes on board in any capacity it accelerates the mission and over a 5-10 year timeframe that helps Tesla. It helps build EV brand awareness, and a public charging infrastructure. If helps sell solar and batteries, and it helps further dilute the FUD.
Overall Tesla is making all the right movers to be best at manufacturing, even Apple has no quick fix for that. Most of the small number of really great manufacturing engineers are already working for Tesla or SpaceX.
Even poaching staff is less likely to succeed now, many senior Tesla staff also have considerable Tesla shareholdings. They stand to gain more financially by helping Tesla continue to succeed. Any salary has to overcome that hurdle. Not many US or European Tesla staff will want to go work in China. Having a factory in China and manufacturing R&D outside of China is less efficient.
So overall I'm finding it hard to construct any narrative where Apple represents a threat to Tesla.