Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Share price forecast

Assuming Tesla growth prospects look as good to analysts as they do now (but no FSD Level 5/Robotaxi/Tesla Network).

end 2021 : 1,500
end 2022 : 2,900
end 2023 : 5,000

WOW you sure are optimistic about the share price!

I am much more conservative with my expectations, but then I never imagined we'd be where we are today with the stock value either. I am beginning to believe my expectations for TSLA when I went all in over a year ago were FAR too conservative, and I'm starting to think I will be much more wealthy much sooner than I ever thought.

Note I'm not complaining, just extremely surprised.

 

[kanweg]

Can you summarize in 3 words or less, please and thanks. You know I can’t slug through one of his posts; I’ll be asleep before I finish the first sentence.

3 Financials are excellent.
2 great financials
1 HODL
0

 

[Discoducky]

WOW you sure are optimistic about the share price!

I am much more conservative with my expectations, but then I never imagined we'd be where we are today with the stock value either. I am beginning to believe my expectations for TSLA when I went all in over a year ago were FAR too conservative, and I'm starting to think I will be much more wealthy much sooner than I ever thought.

Note I'm not complaining, just extremely surprised.

This one is the most optimistic I've seen that has predicted well in the past

 

[Christine69420]

Can you summarize in 3 words or less, please and thanks.

Tesla > TSLA.

 

[Discoducky]

Can you summarize in 3 words or less, please and thanks. You know I can’t slug through one of his posts; I’ll be asleep before I finish the first sentence.

Gross profit record 23.6%

 

[dl003]

Can you summarize in 3 words or less, please and thanks. You know I can’t slug through one of his posts; I’ll be asleep before I finish the first sentence.

Need bigger mountain.

 

[vikings123]

Today is a sad day as I’m selling my Tesla, not TSLA. It is just a SR+ but played a huge role in digging deeper into my TSLA investment and is probably one of the bigger items that solidified my conviction.

Amazingly Carvana was willing to pay me 34.5K for my car that cost me about 38K after rebates and used it for 20 months/15K miles. This tells people are willing to pay almost the new car price if they can get their hands on it sooner. Truly amazing.

I’m hoping to upgrade to a model S or a model 3 LR. If the rumored refreshed model S has a landscape screen then I’m placing my order on the first day and that will be my contribution to Q1. So whatever is your Q1 delivery estimate just add 1 to that number

 

[AudubonB]

Can you summarize in 3 words or less, please and thanks. You know I can’t slug through one of his posts; I’ll be asleep before I finish the first sentence.

OhwhatfunitistorideTSLAupalltheway.

 

[StealthP3D]

To all those who question whether Tesla could manage one million vehicles in 2021 I offer the following:
Q4 2020 actual production 179,757 annualized 719,028
China Model Y is just beginning, Berlin will produce some vehicles in 2021. Fremont is still increasing. Probably 2021 will see increased volume of S and X. Frankly, it seems to me easier to envision one million that it is to imagine less.
As for battery supply, it is clear that this is one typical impediment to faster growth.
Other people can and will analyze this very closely. I simply look at the growth rate of BEV adoption in China, most of the EU and the prospects for many other countries. Then I think about the transition to 4680's by Panasonic, LG, and others plus Tesla itself. Then think about the fact that Tesla is currently using cells produced by most leading manufacturers other than BYD.
We can be very precise about all this. We cannot really be very accurate right now. Some, like @Troy Teslike and @The Accountant are adept at short term forecasts, and revive them rapidly as information improves. When we look at 2021 we have a plethora of major unknowns:
1. How quickly will Covid-19 be contained?
2. How likely is it that the US environmental policies will be adopted quickly enough to drive significant renewables and BEV demand?
3. When will GF Brandenburg have significant volumes?
4. Will Texas permit direct sales this year? Will GF Austin begin producing something?
5. How quickly will GF Shanghai ramp up volumes?
6. How quickly will all the planned 2021 Superchargers, Service facilities, sales facilities and shipping infrastructure ramp? Specifically will rail from Shanghai to Europe materialize reducing shipping time by half or better? How about shipping capacity? Port processing times?

All of those questions are quite material for 2021. As @Mr Miserable has shown, there are major port processing, and transshipment issues (e.g. Panama Canal). Mostly we all ignore all those issues but in aggregate they become gigantic constraints now that Tesla will be transporting a million vehicles rather than half a million.

These are issues that have caused most major oems to establish factories all over the world. Tesla is moving at breakneck speed, unprecedented. Regularly TSLA factories have done the seemingly impossible and had major problems doing it. Now we're imagining nearly doubling of all the infrastructure to accommodate 2021 and be ready for 2022.

If ever this has been tricky to forecast 2021 is far more so. Personally I think they will do it plus amazing ramp in TE. This will be, as the legendary Chinese saying goes "life in interesting times".

I'm a big picture kind of guy. I try not to get bogged down analyzing every little facet to come up with a precise growth rate because the value of my investment in TSLA is looked at as a "chunk", at any one time worth perhaps plus or minus 50% depending upon how you look at it. But I know that "chunk" is growing in value over time. It might fluctuate up or down suddenly based upon what news comes to light but the most important thing is the rate of growth over longer time periods like a year or three.

Of all the things you mentioned that could impact value, two things stand out above all the rest as being important to that rate of growth and that is battery supply and in-house battery production. Because that is what will determine unit volumes and therefore growth (the other items listed will likely follow battery supply). The other aspect that is just as important from a valuation perspective are margins. Margins will be most impacted by the timeliness of Tesla hitting their battery production goals and the progression of FSD.

Batteries and FSD. Everything else will follow. So keep your eyes on these two things. I do wish we had better insight into the most difficult challenge Tesla is facing (internal battery production) because that is so important.

 

[Sanny]

Started my napkin math to calc what will happen to margins after a wide FSD rollout. I assume take rate will go up from 27%(?) to 40%+, all 100% of it will be recognized right away (vs 50% now?). What will happen to PE ratio if gross margin goes from 23% to lets say 33%? Can anyone point to someone with a larger napkin who already did calculations?

 

[Nocturnal]

Feels weird to be buying TSLA at >$3600 pre-split but I funded that with LEAPs I sold this morning so it's all good I guess.

 

[GOVA]

WOW you sure are optimistic about the share price!

I am much more conservative with my expectations, but then I never imagined we'd be where we are today with the stock value either. I am beginning to believe my expectations for TSLA when I went all in over a year ago were FAR too conservative, and I'm starting to think I will be much more wealthy much sooner than I ever thought.

Note I'm not complaining, just extremely surprised.

What is so difficult to appreciate?
TSLA 1-5-20 ~$90 and change (edited price) still good comparison
TSLA 1-5-21 $735 and change

 

[Mengy]

What is so difficult to appreciate?
TSLA 1-5-20 ~$90 and change (edited price) still good comparison
TSLA 1-5-21 $735 and change

That would be swell, but I feel like TSLA has gained so much in the past year that it will take a few years to settle down and grow more conservatively now. Much of the future growth is already priced in as the market has finally woken up to what Tesla is doing. It will take new surprises and innovations to spur that kind of growth again in my opinion. Like the robotaxi fleet actively roving, or the Model 2 in production, etc.

Long term TSLA is going to explode into huge valuations, I just feel we are going to see a breathing period for a few years now. I'm expecting more like 0.5X - 1X per year for the stock for a few years now as things consolidate. Again, I do hope you are right and I am wrong of course!!!

 

[Curt Renz]

“It is our best understanding that, if we bring down CO2 to net zero, the warming will level off. The climate will stabilize within a decade or two,” he said. “There will be very little to no additional warming. Our best estimate is zero.”

The widespread idea that decades, or even centuries, of additional warming are already baked into the system, as suggested by previous IPCC reports, were based on an “unfortunate misunderstanding of experiments done with climate models that never assumed zero emissions.”

Many Scientists Now Say Global Warming Could Stop Relatively Quickly After Emissions Go to Zero - Inside Climate News

Chicago Tribune - yesterday: Editorial: Joe Biden and the reality of climate change

Excerpt:

Some things are working in Biden’s favor. The cost of solar and wind power has plummeted over the past decade, making renewable energy far more competitive with coal and natural gas. Auto companies are investing heavily in electric vehicles. The pioneering Tesla company is now worth more than the nine biggest carmakers combined...

The best climate option, and the one least susceptible to corruption and mismanagement, is also the hardest political sell: levying a tax on carbon fuels to gradually raise their price. That would stimulate a burst of capitalist innovation to get the greatest efficiency gains for the least expense.

 

[EVMeister]

That would be swell, but I feel like TSLA has gained so much in the past year that it will take a few years to settle down and grow more conservatively now. Much of the future growth is already priced in as the market has finally woken up to what Tesla is doing. It will take new surprises and innovations to spur that kind of growth again in my opinion. Like the robotaxi fleet actively roving, or the Model 2 in production, etc.

Long term TSLA is going to explode into huge valuations, I just feel we are going to see a breathing period for a few years now. I'm expecting more like 0.5X - 1X per year for the stock for a few years now as things consolidate. Again, I do hope you are right and I am wrong of course!!!

If I'm understanding you correctly, you think the stock price will be between where it is now and half of that for the next few years? Surely if you strongly thought you were correct on that you'd sell some of your shares.

 

[Twooz]

If I'm understanding you correctly, you think the stock price will be between where it is now and half of that for the next few years? Surely if you strongly thought you were correct on that you'd sell some of your shares.

I think he meant 0.5x meaning 50% and 1x meaning 100%

 

[Congo Line]

This is exactly what I would expect and it's a great idea. Become a convenience center that offers charging instead of gas, rather than a gas station which offers a convenience store. I think this will keep happening as the demand for gas plummets. I believe that plummet will happen exponentially, commensurate with expected EV production, increasing affordability, growing demand and pent-up demand as well.

Agree this will probably happen, but the location mix will change. People who lives in the suburbs will almost exclusively charge at home, and those neighborhood gas stations which turn into convenience stores will probably see less traffic overall. Especially considering people like my wife, whose favorite aspect of EV ownership is avoiding gas stations.

Whereas, those locations which are more urban could help EV customers who don't have access to residential charging, such as condo or apartment dwellers, and the legacy gas stations-now-charging stations in those areas could possibly do quite well. People would stay longer, have a coffee or snack, use the wifi; kind of like Starbucks.

 

[chronoreverse]

Unless it's an exceptional location, I suspect most urban gas stations will find far better return just selling the land. It'll be fun seeing ICE-drivers complain about the lack of close-by gas stations in the future while BEV-drivers just go home and plug in. Even condos are starting to mandate EV-charging in new buildings; it'll be something that just slowly becomes normal.

 

[StealthP3D]

“It is our best understanding that, if we bring down CO2 to net zero, the warming will level off. The climate will stabilize within a decade or two,” he said. “There will be very little to no additional warming. Our best estimate is zero.”

The widespread idea that decades, or even centuries, of additional warming are already baked into the system, as suggested by previous IPCC reports, were based on an “unfortunate misunderstanding of experiments done with climate models that never assumed zero emissions.”

Many Scientists Now Say Global Warming Could Stop Relatively Quickly After Emissions Go to Zero - Inside Climate News

That BS is so transparent I can see China through it!

The temperature of the globe is a function of the concentration of greenhouse gasses, not their rate of emission. And many of them persist for hundreds of years. Bringing greenhouse emissions to net zero does not reduce the concentration of previously emitted pollutants to zero. Therefore, warming will continue until the emitted pollutants are brought back into balance.

The fossil fuel industry is looking for any excuse to NOT take drastic action to solve our climate crisis.

 

[Mengy]

If I'm understanding you correctly, you think the stock price will be between where it is now and half of that for the next few years? Surely if you strongly thought you were correct on that you'd sell some of your shares.

No, I mean over what the price is today. For example, my predictions for EoY over the next few years:

2021: $850
2022: $1000
2023: $1200
2024: $1400 ($7000 pre split)

But I feel the stock will explode again in 3-4 years time as the robotaxi's start serving and the Model 2 goes into production.

Again, all pure speculation on my part and likely far too conservative, but it's what I'm planning for in my own head. If the shares rise faster then I'll just be even more wealthy than I expect to be, oh darn!!!!