Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

It's funny. Everyone wants the next amazon, or the next microsoft. The dot com crash, the financial crisis, and now Covid crash shows people exactly how to miss fantastic opportunities. People are less afraid of a .com crash than missing out on the next amazon. This is why buy the dip became popular. These new wave of investors has zero fear. In fact they chuckle at fear and then triple down, post loss pron and laughs about it.

I’ve started lurking on WSB and wow. Shorts are going to be an endangered species.

Their entire lives have been spent in a free money environment and they were in 9th grade for the 2008 crash. Their lack of fear today doesn't mean they won't crap their pants when the next crash happens.

The younger people are now the less likely they are to have bought into the American dream. They don’t seem to be afraid of being poor. It’s interesting

 

[FireMedic]

I've tracked it for the last few years, but couldn't locate pre-2017 data, cum vehicles per Supercharger connectors:
Q3 2017 = ??
Q3 2018 = 34
Q3 2019 = 49
Q3 2020 = 59
I think they have not been doing the build-out as fast as they need to, and it is time to accelerate. That Supercharger factory in China is well-timed.

p.s. Please could y'all go and do the US-politics someplace else.

I think the part of the story that is missing in these statistics is how much faster the charging speeds have become.
While it’s true there are more cars per supercharger now, the cars spend less time at chargers; furthermore with longer range vehicles on the road, more charging is happening at homes instead of at superchargers.

Here in California, during peak travel periods, Tesla brings out some of those supercharger semi trucks that have approximately 20 stalls each. They are quite helpful to ease the burden during high use periods like holiday weekends.

Edit: Rob did a great job on breaking down this theory a few weeks ago. Should help ease your concerns.

 

[FireMedic]

In six minutes, noon EST, this channel Killowatts says they will show pics of the new S. Not sure if true.

I don’t believe anybody that shoots video in portrait mode.

Kinda like doubling down in blackjack. You either always do it, or never do it.

That’s just how I live my life; you do you.

 

[dgodfrey]

I think the part of the story that is missing in these statistics is how much faster the charging speeds have become.
While it’s true there are more cars per supercharger now, the cars spend less time at chargers; furthermore with longer range vehicles on the road, more charging is happening at homes instead of at superchargers.

Here in California, during peak travel periods, Tesla brings out some of those supercharger semi trucks that have approximately 20 stalls each. They are quite helpful to ease the burden during high use periods like holiday weekends.

Edit: Rob did a great job on breaking down this theory a few weeks ago. Should help ease your concerns.

I mentioned that it my original post here Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
I acknowledge that Tesla will not need to maintain the same pace of expansion as efficiencies improve. I still think that even growing the superchargers at half the rate of production could be expecting too much, thus the assist of a CCS adapter would provide.

 

[gabeincal]

What model of drone are you using?

Mavic Air 2

 

[Prunesquallor]

The thing is IMHO there has never been a more consequential company than Tesla. So hard to compare them to any other company.

Because most people want to put Tesla in the "car company" bucket...they will miss out.

The smart folks here are cleaning up as a result.

The difference in my mind is the nearly infinite market for:

Electric vehicles: 1.4 billion ICE vehicles ripe for the picking

Energy storage: fossil fuel energy production at the economic tipping point.

Plus: Ten year Tesla tech lead on both.

Not sure how Tesla can lose.

 

[insaneoctane]

Don´t know if this was posted, probably not going to be popular here...

Newsom's $1.5 billion plan for electric cars shifts rebate money to equity programs

Wouldn't California's money be better spent on the infrastructure to have reliable power (no more blackouts when it gets hot)? How about offering Californians more affordable energy so more people could make EV purchases more financially viable? Somehow California's average energy cost is in the top 10 highest in the Nation, (7th at 16¢/kWh) but doesn't even break 50% renewable. Idaho is 3rd cheapest in the nation (average 7.9¢/kWh) with 79% renewables. Washington is 4th cheapest in the nation (average 8¢/kWh) with 72% renewables (80% including nuclear). South Dakota is 29th (average 10¢/kWh) with 69% renewables. Just saying California ought to do better, not just get charged more. Not everyone has solar...

 

[Prunesquallor]

The crash happened, like 9 months ago. Old school guys sold out of fear (including warren). New younger investors tripled down. The stock market recovery time frame was unprecedented. I mean what it took 3 weeks to recover? Now everyday we get the "it's gonna crash any minute now" as these companies make all time highs week after week for the past half a year. This was anything but normal because people now are more informed..they are taking investing more into their own hands..and they are no longer listening to conventional norms because it's those norms that caused people to miss out on Amazon, apple, microsoft, etc etc. And I'm not talking about missing out buying the stocks. Many many people owned those names one time in their lives or another. But almost everyone was baited to sell due to conventional wisdom telling them it'll crash due to them being in a bubble because..high P/E or whatever nonsense. So the majority..like 99% of the investors missed out on gains vs the 1% who bought and held.

LOL. I was talking about TSLA with my brother-in-law and I told him how scary the pandemic “crash” was and how close I was to margin calls. He pulled up the SP chart on his phone, and you could barely see that little dip.

 

[Joshker]

My guess is that this is a test mule. I think we will see more significant body modifications than have been shown in the pics.

Can't wait to see what it will look like, and if the X will be revealed at the same time.

I’m just not buying it. The S is beyond due for a refresh, the shutdown, calling to remove/sell all inventory, skate boards etc. Dropping S price to compete with Lucid, the other fresh EV’s (not competitive) hitting the market etc.... I really have a hard time thinking Tesla would miss this opportunity and simply release a 2.5 version of the previous refreshed S.

Tesla knows we’re looking for it and possibly teasing us with this car. If you remember the Cybertruck teaser, people were altering the lighting trying to get more details and Tesla actually watermarked something like nice try only to be seen after doing so.

One thing I find interesting was the huge fender gaps he mentioned, this makes me think that maybe this is indeed a rolling test mule with some of the parts originally built for the Plaid car for the ring. No chance they would drive the actual refreshed car around Fremont if they are not ready to announce it yet. Give us a new car or the S/X sales continue to drop off and you’re wasting precious factory to build them. But if you give us the new car that is better than the 3/Y, I guarantee most of us long term TSLAnaires are going to immediately upgrade.

 

[Nocturnal]

I’m just not buying it. The S is beyond due for a refresh, the shutdown, calling to remove/sell all inventory, skate boards etc. Dropping S price to compete with Lucid, the other fresh EV’s (not competitive) hitting the market etc.... I really have a hard time thinking Tesla would miss this opportunity and simply release a 2.5 version of the previous refreshed S.

Tesla knows we’re looking for it and possibly teasing us with this car. If you remember the Cybertruck teaser, people were altering the lighting trying to get more details and Tesla actually watermarked something like nice try only to be seen after doing so.

One thing I find interesting was the huge fender gaps he mentioned, this makes me think that maybe this is indeed a rolling test mule with some of the parts originally built for the Plaid car for the ring. No chance they would drive the actual refreshed car around Fremont if they are not ready to announce it yet. Give us a new car or the S/X sales continue to drop off and you’re wasting precious factory to build them. But if you give us the new car that is better than the 3/Y, I guarantee most of us long term TSLAnaires are going to immediately upgrade.

Put out an S that feels like the 3 and I will be very tempted to upgrade my P3, maybe to plaid.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Not sure how Tesla can lose.

Well. if Tesla fires Elon and hires me as CEO I think the chance of world domination is only 50/50. So it can happen.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I’ve started lurking on WSB and wow. Shorts are going to be an endangered species.

The younger people are now the less likely they are to have bought into the American dream. They don’t seem to be afraid of being poor. It’s interesting

A lot of young people do not need to own a car, a house or property.
They need a laptop to work as their own « laptop CEOs » with their Shopify business or online services, they need their iPhone to update their instagram while showing all the places they travel.
Of course, some still seek the American dream but a lot are renters.
Are they following Musk who sold everything and became a renter? ;P

 

[MartinAustin]

It wasn't until 2014 that the CCS standard was officially adopted. But, as a taxpayer, I would be annoyed knowing that my taxes were used to promote a private entity. I'm not so naive to believe it doesn't happen but on the surface, subsidizing Tesla's private network is hard to support.

It's not a private network. Name one manufacturer who has been stopped from using it. Has Tesla gone around rooting out manufacturers who have been trying to use it and stopping them?

It's my understanding that no manufacturer has elected to use it. Bollinger might have come close. I think those new Aptera BEVs might be able to use it.

(USA-specific comments begin here) Using taxpayers' money only for what IN PRACTICE are minority standards, is not going to happen. I think they will allocate monies to improve the Supercharger network.

Nobody complained in 2008 when the U.S. Government loaned Ford FIVE BILLION DOLLARS of our money for unspecified future product development. (I think Ford used it to keep afloat and develop the EcoBoost turbocharger for ICE) We have not got that money back yet - and in fact, Ford has successfully lobbied to delay the repayments, 12 years later! It could be argued that Ford blew the money on projects that weren't particularly advanced - especially when compared to what Tesla did with our $465million - which we got back, with $12million in interest. The government could do better than force Ford to pay back the $5,000,000,000 by installing Superchargers.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The latest Dave Lee discussion is with Jason DeBolt, the guy who retired at 39 with 12 million in Tesla. You might have seen a few stories in media about him. Turns out there is a lot more to the story. Including margin calls you would not want to experience and living in his car for six months.

Jason actually gave Dave his trading history and they go through when and at what prices he bought.

I think a lot of the long timers here can relate very well to his story and even me as a relative newcomer could recognize many of his feelings and thoughts from the last couple of years.

Don't think I've ever listened to a podcast/youtube that is almost two hours long but well worth it if you can find the time.

Okay, I listened to it. The whole thing. Pretty useless in my opinion. Dave seems to be desperately searching for some kind of magic that determines who gets rich on TSLA and who doesn't. But it isn't there to be found in individuals or anecdotes. He keeps asking: schooling? job? life experience? I'm surprised he didn't ask whether the guy's sex life was a factor. And, of course, Jason basically said he went with his gut and just knew Tesla had to succeed because the product was awesome. Just like many of the people here, past and present. And some get lucky and get rich, and some don't. And the fields of destitution are littered with those who were impressed by great products and put everything they had into businesses that went bust.

Jason's a guy who got excited about Tesla and put everything into it. He got unlucky in that it didn't go up when it should have, but was pretty much flat for years. He got lucky in that he stuck it out and was there for the 2020 boom in TSLA. He especially got lucky that the great product was being made by what's turning out to be a great business. There's really nothing to be learned from that. There are no doubt dozens of Jasons just at Google who did more or less the same thing and made little or nothing or lost their shirts. If Dave keeps at his search for a few decades, he'll discover it's all survivorship bias. That is if he interviews the other guys, the ones who lost, and discovers they give the same answers.

Me, I've lost a ton of money on TSLA over the years. And I've made a ton of money. Right now, things are very positive. But a year ago, things were very negative. I don't think I'm any different now, nor did I change anything significant about how I was betting on TSLA, nor is Tesla particularly different. All that's really different is that Tesla's last decade of hard work is turning it into an overnight success.

If Dave wants to find magic, he should seek out the people who got into TSLA last January or April. They're the ones who got the most bang for the buck out of Tesla's overnight success. And then he should watch for when they get out. Because there's absolutely no doubt from listening to Jason, that if TSLA goes down the tubes he'll go down with it.

Edit: I should note that I always find Dave's podcasts to be a waste of my time. He's clearly talking to a different audience. I most recently listened to him interview Rob Maurer and it was useless compared to any of Rob's podcasts.

 

[Bet TSLA]

But if you give us the new car that is better than the 3/Y, I guarantee most of us long term TSLAnaires are going to immediately upgrade.

That would be a totally insignificant number of people.

 

[Beltsbear]

That would be a totally insignificant number of people.

For every on this board, there are 100 that are not. There are a surprising number of Tslanares.

 

[Mokuzai]

I met Sandy yesterday in Malibu. I'm actually in this video. He's as much of a character in real life as he is on YouTube. Great guy and it was a pleasure meeting him.

 

[wipster]

You know, I was thinking today, with as much fun as we've made of Audi from calling their first BEV an "e-Tron," we should think of a different moniker for the smaller, less expensive vehicle Tesla is designing and probably building in China than the "Model 2."

 

[bigsmooth125]

Totally agree. I often ask how much of my success investing in TSLA was luck vs. skill/acumen. Of course, I want to believe it was the latter but it's hard to say how much. The point of The Big Short by Michael Lewis was that some of the people who hit it big by shorting the market in 2007-8 did so as a result of a confluence of circumstances and quirky personality traits and not necessarily pure smarts. One way I examine this question is I look at the other stocks I invested in or would have invested in if Tesla hadn't existed. I would have done well but not nearly as well. For those curious, in addition to TSLA, I invested in APPL, CMG, and NVDA and would have invested in AMZN. After a decent gain I actually sold these and bought even more TSLA. Today, instead of an overall 14x, I would have made 4x.

Okay, I listened to it. The whole thing. Pretty useless in my opinion. Dave seems to be desperately searching for some kind of magic that determines who gets rich on TSLA and who doesn't. But it isn't there to be found in individuals or anecdotes. He keeps asking: schooling? job? life experience? I'm surprised he didn't ask whether the guy's sex life was a factor. And, of course, Jason basically said he went with his gut and just knew Tesla had to succeed because the product was awesome. Just like many of the people here, past and present. And some get lucky and get rich, and some don't. And the fields of destitution are littered with those who were impressed by great products and put everything they had into businesses that went bust.

Jason's a guy who got excited about Tesla and put everything into it. He got unlucky in that it didn't go up when it should have, but was pretty much flat for years. He got lucky in that he stuck it out and was there for the 2020 boom in TSLA. He especially got lucky that the great product was being made by what's turning out to be a great business. There's really nothing to be learned from that. There are no doubt dozens of Jasons just at Google who did more or less the same thing and made little or nothing or lost their shirts. If Dave keeps at his search for a few decades, he'll discover it's all survivorship bias. That is if he interviews the other guys, the ones who lost, and discovers they give the same answers.

Me, I've lost a ton of money on TSLA over the years. And I've made a ton of money. Right now, things are very positive. But a year ago, things were very negative. I don't think I'm any different now, nor did I change anything significant about how I was betting on TSLA, nor is Tesla particularly different. All that's really different is that Tesla's last decade of hard work is turning it into an overnight success.

If Dave wants to find magic, he should seek out the people who got into TSLA last January or April. They're the ones who got the most bang for the buck out of Tesla's overnight success. And then he should watch for when they get out. Because there's absolutely no doubt from listening to Jason, that if TSLA goes down the tubes he'll go down with it.

Edit: I should note that I always find Dave's podcasts to be a waste of my time. He's clearly talking to a different audience. I most recently listened to him interview Rob Maurer and it was useless compared to any of Rob's podcasts.

 

[2daMoon]

Heck, I guess I'm one of those newcomers. Though not as recent as those newbs from January 2020. No way.

More like November of 2019. Kicking myself for taking so long to sell every asset I could to go all-in after only dipping my toes back then. Still, managed about 4X overall so far, but will be happy to settle for 0.5X/year from here on.

Oh, and I've always been a renter too.