Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

So then why announce it in 2017 for release in 2019? It just looks bad. Many of us here make fun of other brands for these kind of delays.

I believe they answered it last earning. Charging reliability was a problem.

 

[SpaceCash]

Do you know anyone who has made money who likes to park it for years rather than get a 10 or 20x return? Move along....sir.

If you're hyper-concerned about 250k you're not actually wealthy enough to be flexing, sir.

 

[Todd Burch]

So the "Plaid" they released today is really just 18650 battery with a tri-motor drivetrain, while the "Plaid+" is the vehicle they initially described as "Plaid" on Battery Day. (i am making an assumption here that Plaid+ will use 4680, but that's not confirmed)

Seems like a little bit of a bait-and-switch.

The timeline for "Plaid+" is in line with what was announced for "Plaid" on Battery Day --- end of 2021.

I realize I'm making a few sketchy assumptions, so don't get too worked up over any of this. Hopefully we'll know more after the impending "Refresh Conference Call" Elon mentioned tonight. Can't wait to hear more about the powertrain as well as details regarding brakes, tires, steering wheel, and the extensive interior refresh.

I think the plaid was more about the 3 motor performance than about energy density, range, etc....see below diagram.

 

[MP3Mike]

1. A bunch of people had model s performances ordered, and Tesla doesnt want to honor that price so they changed the name, forcing people to pay the new price.

They changed all of the names. People have already started getting emails that if they want to keep their order and get a new vehicle they have to accept the new pricing, but with a $2k discount, and keeping the FSD pricing that they had already committed to.

Really not bad for the people betting $100 on an order against the price increase, they are getting a $2k return on that bet.

 

[adiggs]

Just remember, it was supposed to be released in 2019. They’re now saying 2022. This isn’t a slight delay.

My own observation more broadly about Elon and Tesla. Elon Time - in the short term (few years), the schedule is always overly aggressive and involves many missed schedules. Oh noes - what bad forecast!?! Except in the medium to longer term, we look up and realize that Elon / Tesla (/SpaceX) are doing impossible stuff. And it's routine.

I consider the Roadster and Semi to be right on Elon Time. Even if it can be frustrating for the impossible to take a little more time

They weren't positive they'd continue having the high class of demand problem that they do, so filled the pipe with products to grow their TAM.

Funny thing about this - it's been my observation (as a follower of Tesla since 2012) that not only does the industry, the analysts, and investors under call demand -- ELON underestimates demand. The original Model S program was designed around 20k units. The expectation was it would be good enough to get the company to Model X. Then Model S had so much demand, Model X got to wait.

Around the Model 3 launch - you know, the one where people were lining up outside of galleries to get a reservation, was that they'd get maybe 50k reservations or something on the first day. Apparently there was an internal pool on the number of reservations they'd actually get, with somebody going off whacky with a high of 100k. My wife and I were ~reservation # 130k about 5 minutes before Elon walked on stage.

It looks to me like Semi / Roadster are being pushed out, not because of lack of design, but lack of batteries due to selling so many cars. It's not like they aren't expanding cell manufacturing along with everything else.

This transition to a renewable energy economy is something that is badly wanted in the world - even Elon, as hard as he's pushing, sometimes finds the thing getting away from him.

The timeline for "Plaid+" is in line with what was announced for "Plaid" on Battery Day --- end of 2021.

I haven't seen a Plaid+ version of Model X announced yet. I don't care about the ridiculous acceleration (fun though) - I care about the big range (and presumably 250kw or faster charging). I'd sure like to see one of these late this year - that might pry some trade up dollars from me.

 

[Todd Burch]

this is because the bulk of the "learning" as far as AI is concerned is not in how to drive, it's in identifying the environment and situation. Most of the actual driving is human-written code.

Ironically, I think the "identifying the environment" part is actually the EASY part. I think the path planning and decisions about what the car should do is really the tricky stuff!

 

[glhs272]

RE the steering wheel yoke, when I think about where I put my hands when I drive (which is less than half of the time), it's almost always on the bottom or right where the horizontal piece meets the wheely-part. So I think on net, not having the top half of the wheel could be nice. (Looking through the wheel to see the IC behind it is always a pain). I think I'd have to try it before I decide, but I ain't gonna knock it just because I haven't tried it.

OK, well get in your car and go make a right hand turn. I find it extremely awkward to hold the bottom of the wheel and slide your hand across your lap. I find I always grab the wheel at the top and pull it down. Not having anything up there to grab in order to turn is going to drive me crazy. I will try to keep an open mind about this, but right now I see it as a huge mistake.

 

[Pezpunk]

Yeah I think you've got that right.

My Plaid reservation is now Plaid+. I feel like the naming convention could be better.

ah! I just checked and mine is too. awesome.

 

[Mike Smith]

ARK Invest's Tasha Keeney breaks down Tesla's latest earnings report

 

[MC3OZ]

So the "Plaid" they released today is really just 18650 battery with a tri-motor drivetrain, while the "Plaid+" is the vehicle they initially described as "Plaid" on Battery Day. (i am making an assumption here that Plaid+ will use 4680, but that's not confirmed)

In this context Plaid refers to the 3-Motor drive train, the bigger battery just allows more power and range.

If think they have found they good get good specs from a 18650 battery pack.
Certainly better specs that the previous Performance Model S.

 

[JRP3]

They freaking baned WSB!

On Discord, yes, but WSB on reddit is back up, mods locked it for technical reasons.

 

[Todd Burch]

OK, well get in your car and go make a right hand turn. I find it extremely awkward to hold the bottom of the wheel and slide your hand across your lap. I find I always grab the wheel at the top and pull it down. Not having anything up there to grab in order to turn is going to drive me crazy. I will try to keep an open mind about this, but right now I see it as a huge.

Interesting, I'm the opposite. When I make a turn, I grab the wheel around 5 or 7 o'clock and pull up. Either way, I'm...uh...sure they put a few people in the car to see how they felt about it.

 

[Todd Burch]

In this context Plaid refers to the 3-Motor drive train, the bigger battery just allows more power and range.

If think they have found they good get good specs from a 18650 battery pack.
Certainly better specs that the previous Performance Model S.

And of course remember 18650 is just the shape of the battery cell casing. They did confirm the cell itself is different.

 

[glhs272]

Interesting, I'm the opposite. When I make a turn, I grab the wheel around 5 or 7 o'clock and pull up. Either way, I'm...uh...sure they put a few people in the car to see how they felt about it.

Interesting, I guess my laziness gets gravity to help me make the turn. I get to use the weight of my arm to help make the turn. I guess I have never really thought about it until now...

 

[MC3OZ]

RE the steering wheel yoke, when I think about where I put my hands when I drive (which is less than half of the time), it's almost always on the bottom or right where the horizontal piece meets the wheely-part. So I think on net, not having the top half of the wheel could be nice. (Looking through the wheel to see the IC behind it is always a pain). I think I'd have to try it before I decide, but I ain't gonna knock it just because I haven't tried it.

This reminds me of the Cybertruck:-

• Some are going to love it on first sight.
• Many will grow to like it.
• Some will never like it.

All will talk about it..

Highly skilled professional drivers will probably like it, and many motoring journalists would like to believe they are highly skilled professional drivers.

They can easily make a conventional wheel as a option at sometime in the future. If not some 3rd party will probably make a conventional wheel.

I was surprised, but I think this is a great marketing move, it gets people talking, and those that love it can't wait to get it.

 

[jerry33]

Interesting, I'm the opposite. When I make a turn, I grab the wheel around 5 or 7 o'clock and pull up. Either way, I'm...uh...sure they put a few people in the car to see how they felt about it.

Two things about the round steering wheel. Most important is that the heating seems to be better at the top of the wheel than elsewhere. The other is that you can adjust it to block out the idiot lights. The car will display a text message if there is an issue.

 

[phantasms]

It is a formula car steering wheel, like they use in Formula One. Very cool! As far as turn signals go, the car just knows where you are turning

Even more like F1...

All the stalk functions are now touchscreen on the wheel.

Still not sure on park/drive etc.

I for one am thrilled on the wheel and on the interior as a whole.

 

[coolmanfever]

Now earning call is over.
thumb up if you think TSLA will break over 900 per share buying more share tomorrow morning?

 

[srius]

I think Tesla has now better distinguished the S/X as a higher echelon product compared to the 3/Y.

It looks like the interior is still not up to the (luxury) standard of high end European cars. This is not an issue for tech-oriented buyers, but seems to be a turnoff for main stream buyers, especially the Chinese consumers.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

On Discord, yes, but WSB on reddit is back up, mods locked it for technical reasons.

Too bad I don't use Discord so I could start boycotting them.