-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesla uses fewer ECUs than the other OEMs so they are less impacted. (As well as probably never cutting orders.)
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I love puts. They pay you to buy TSLA.
It now takes Tesla 2.5 days to make the same amount of vehicles. Not quite 4 hours, but I'm sure Ford is seeing the same growth and making a truck every 19 seconds now, right? RIGHT?
Looking around I see no shortage problems of AMD Zen 2 notebooks. In fact I see deals all the time for the 4800hs on slickdeals.net.
GPU shortage came from the mining boom. AMD shipped out 3x more GPUs this launch than any other launch. The demand is just unprecedented since people have been waiting for a major upgrade for awhile AND Ethereum is at $1600+.
So far there are plenty of Intel CPUs, minor shortage of Nvidia GPUs low end but major shortage of highend, major shortage of all AMD GPUs, Major shortage of consoles, minor shortage of Zen 3 CPUs(specifically the 5800x) while major shortage for all super high end stuff, and no shortage of Zen 2/Zen 1 laptops or desktop CPU or any made by Intel.
Sony sold the same amount of ps5s during the launch as ps4s.
So what do you make of this? Nothing you said has clarified the semiconductor shortage and its impact on Tesla, for me.
TLDR. Don't worry about the "Ps5 gaming computer" in the S/X. AMD can spare 100k this year.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
We aren't talking about one-off purchases.
We're talking about massive orders by system builders.
Report: AMD Chip Shortage Caused by Packaging Issues, PlayStation 5 | Tom's Hardware
The shortage came from mining AND pent up demand AND launching new consoles that also required new AMD GPUs- all at the same time.
And it's not getting any better..
All the new GPUs from Nvidia and AMD remain sold out at retail, with restocks selling out in 5-10 minutes typically.
At this point that's a bit like mentioning Jaguar has plenty of unsold EVs
Which would include the one going into the new Model S/X.
And one would expect it to show up in the 3/Y eventually too, in much higher numbers if Tesla is serious about starting to make money off selling games and apps.
So a major shortage is not a good thing here.
Maybe I was not very clear about why AMD will allocate 100k GPUs(or maybe APUs) to Tesla even though they are expecting chip shortages 1H of the year(they guided 2H to be more lax)
1. AMD is extremely committed to their partnership, especially to a new brand like Tesla. So far Tesla/AMD still have yet to formally announce their partnership. And AMD stocks have been trading nothing but flat and we see this as a catalyst. I remember 2 years ago AMD would go on and on about partnering with Atari to make the VCS(and us shareholders are like who the hell cares). So just think about how much mindshare AMD is trying to win with Tesla as their partner.
2. AMD made almost 10 million next gen console chips in 2 quarters. These are low margin products at around 25%. AMD will bend over backwards selling chips to Tesla at a much higher margin as stock analyst crap on their margins being almost 10% lower than industry standard(mostly due to consoles).
3. Because AMD can pump out a few million of these chips per quarter, sending 20k of these higher margin chips to Tesla per quarter wouldn't even matter to their logistics.
1. AMD is extremely committed to their partnership, especially to a new brand like Tesla. So far Tesla/AMD still have yet to formally announce their partnership. And AMD stocks have been trading nothing but flat and we see this as a catalyst. I remember 2 years ago AMD would go on and on about partnering with Atari to make the VCS(and us shareholders are like who the hell cares). So just think about how much mindshare AMD is trying to win with Tesla as their partner.
2. AMD made almost 10 million next gen console chips in 2 quarters. These are low margin products at around 25%. AMD will bend over backwards selling chips to Tesla at a much higher margin as stock analyst crap on their margins being almost 10% lower than industry standard(mostly due to consoles).
3. Because AMD can pump out a few million of these chips per quarter, sending 20k of these higher margin chips to Tesla per quarter wouldn't even matter to their logistics.
larmor
Active Member
Nothing to see here, many analysts value Tesla like a car company not a computer...
So lets say I'm comparing them on their specs. I'll save $90 bucks to get the Audi or spend $45k *MORE* to get the Porsche.
*ALL* the specs favor the Plaid+. Who is buying the Audi or the Porsche? They will get blown away.
Edit: My 8 year old daughter is laughing as I type this as she created the spreadsheet
In relation to new factories the Battery Day Kato Rd plant gives Tesla the option of starting factories simply for the purposes of making cells.
For example, Indonesia would probably be very happy if Tesla started new factory to turn Nickel into Nickel based 4680 cells which are then exported. This is a simple scaling up of the Battery Day plant, some Tesla staff would need to work for a while in Indonesia.
The Nickel based 4680 cells are a good fit for the Cybertruck and Semi, the question would be where to make the vehicles.
I think the Semi might be easier to make, and does use a lot of cells.
For example, the Semi could be made in India. Kits exported from the US could be married with packs made from Indonesian cells. it would not be hard to adapt the Semi platform to a number of different uses in India.
One difficulty would be supporting Megacharging in India and the Asia Pacific more generally.
But if Megacharging is Solar Farm based, it does not necessarily rely on a strong grid connection, the core requirements are land and sunshine. Whilst solar would work a lot of the time in India, the monsoon .season may present challenges.
Outside of India there are other Asia Pacific locations that might make sense, China prefers Tesla to use cells made in China, but there are many other options.
If the Asia Pacific doesn't make sense, then the Nickel cells from Indonesia could simply be exported back to the US.
If Indonesia also makes Nickel Manganese cells, or makes these instead of Nickel, there a plenty of possible uses for those cells.
Another option for India and Australia would be making iron based LFP cells for energy storage using the Kato Rd tech.
It makes some sense to locate battery factories close to the raw materials, provided the logistics of shipping the cells somewhere where they can be used is not onerous.
For example, Indonesia would probably be very happy if Tesla started new factory to turn Nickel into Nickel based 4680 cells which are then exported. This is a simple scaling up of the Battery Day plant, some Tesla staff would need to work for a while in Indonesia.
The Nickel based 4680 cells are a good fit for the Cybertruck and Semi, the question would be where to make the vehicles.
I think the Semi might be easier to make, and does use a lot of cells.
For example, the Semi could be made in India. Kits exported from the US could be married with packs made from Indonesian cells. it would not be hard to adapt the Semi platform to a number of different uses in India.
One difficulty would be supporting Megacharging in India and the Asia Pacific more generally.
But if Megacharging is Solar Farm based, it does not necessarily rely on a strong grid connection, the core requirements are land and sunshine. Whilst solar would work a lot of the time in India, the monsoon .season may present challenges.
Outside of India there are other Asia Pacific locations that might make sense, China prefers Tesla to use cells made in China, but there are many other options.
If the Asia Pacific doesn't make sense, then the Nickel cells from Indonesia could simply be exported back to the US.
If Indonesia also makes Nickel Manganese cells, or makes these instead of Nickel, there a plenty of possible uses for those cells.
Another option for India and Australia would be making iron based LFP cells for energy storage using the Kato Rd tech.
It makes some sense to locate battery factories close to the raw materials, provided the logistics of shipping the cells somewhere where they can be used is not onerous.
Last edited:
I think you may be incorrect about that. I won’t personally know for about 4 to 6 week.
But...Zack and Jesse over at “now you know/Tesla time news” get their starlink setup next week and they’re quite knowledgeable about Tesla related stuff… They seem to think it will work.
They’re going camping with it. I’ll update you when I know more.
This is how other companies with >$500 billion market cap trade. We truly have become a boomer stock, but at the magnitude of our market cap combined with being an S&P 500 component this shouldn't be surprising.
I've continued to dip my toes into covered calls while researching. This period of stability is a good time to practice as I really want to be able to consistently generate income so I can retire!
I have been selling Puts and covered calls that are about 20% off the current SP for the last couple months. Usually going 2-4 weeks out. This gives the ability to roll to a different strike and later date if the SP moves more than 20%. As IV drops, income will drop, but still making over $30k/ month so far (portfolio is large enough to sell 30 contracts of each without pushing margin limits should I be assigned shares on my Puts, etc. if I don't roll in time).
OMG, I sound like a care bear
I would be too with all my cash money tied up in Tesla.
You should never put your feet on the dash, like that. If there's an accident and the airbags go off then you'll get badly injured.
Edit: OK, I'm at least the third person to point this out, but cannot be stated enough times how dangerous it is
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
