Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

You’ve been here since 2014, truly?

Yup. Not very active at the beginning. Buy on the rumor sell on the news has always seemed to be more normal. News the last couple months has been mostly on the meh level. So felt production numbers for Q1 really seemed to catch people by surprise. So thought would be different today. The slow start of the day did result in my picking up over 500 shares today.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Now that the home team is back at full strength, today was the kind of outing we have come to expect. A wire to wire blowout win that was never in doubt in front of an above average sized crowd. The Bears made some pathetic attempts at coming back, but Team Tesla proved too strong to succumb, and all the Bears managed to do was lower the margin of victory by a few points. This week could be interesting as an invigorated squad could put Team Tesla back to a winning record and a positive season point differential.

Today
Score: 691.05
Margin of W/L: 29.30
Attendance: 41,612,393

Season
Record: 31-32
Total margin in wins: 766.15
Total margin in losses: -780.77
YTD gain/loss: -14.62 -2.07%
Avg margin of victory: 24.71
Avg margin of defeat: -24.40
Best Win: 110.58 2021-03-09
Worst Loss: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 5-5
Streak: W1
Avg Attendance: 40,589,914
Avg Attendance of Last 10: 36,176,747

 

[Singuy]

Oh right forgot to write an update.

Asked the CEO of my day care center today to clarify his friend's reverse summon. I asked him twice to make sure that it was not using auto park. I asked him if anyone was in the car when the car went to park itself. He said no one was in the car. He said he'll go back and ask his friend for details since I told him that his friend is the only person we know of with reverse summon. Maybe if the stars align his friend and I can get together for a preview.

Seems like reverse summon is real and it's in some builds. I asked Chuck on youtube if he knows the person I am talking to since he tests FSD beta in Orlando FL. Chuck doesn't know who the person I was referring to.

 

[lascavarian]

This might be my most depressing day as a TSLA investor. Stunned is a good word

Part of what I see being framed to the public is that although this quarter was great, the success is a win for EVs and a confirmation that the overall auto industry has “won” the change to EVs and from here Tesla will lose share as the “real“ brands move in.

The point that every EV sale is a loss of an ICE sale is not in their reasoning yet.

There is some truth that with the stimulus plan, the triumph of Tesla is likely delayed. Such delays prolong the window of opportunity for the traditional builders in their view.

The reality is winter is coming and its name FSD.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Somewhat OT

Space Force finalizing plan to procure broadband from low-orbit satellites

Space Force finalizing plan to procure broadband from low-orbit satellites

spacenews.com

Space Force finalizing plan to procure broadband from low-orbit satellites​

The Space Force is interested in buying commercial broadband services from low Earth orbit constellations.
...
The Space Force noted that it is only interested in current and planned service offerings, not hypothetical possibilities or services that require substantial investment on the part of the government.

Sounds like a good opportunity for someone.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Surely a lot of people are waiting for the financials. You can produce a lot of cars, even sell all of them.... but at what profit margin? regular posters and long term investors like us already know that the financials are likely to be pretty good, but you can see why more conservative investors would be waiting to see the actual bottom line before deciding to believe what they see with the prod and delivery report. Tesla energy remains as unknown, as usual.
Just chill and HODL. Not long till financials now.

 

[wipster]

Yup. Not very active at the beginning. Buy on the rumor sell on the news has always seemed to be more normal. News the last couple months has been mostly on the meh level. So felt production numbers for Q1 really seemed to catch people by surprise. So thought would be different today. The slow start of the day did result in my picking up over 500 shares today.

Man you must have a biiiiggg couch!

 

[Dutchie]

Wall Street have a total crush on GM with anything auto transport related. Anything from driverless technology to EV’s. They somehow love GM. This while GM have hardly anything to show for. What is so special about their Ultium battery? Look at this 3 Autonomous Vehicle Stocks for Investors to Watch
I don’t get it.

 

[vikings123]

Today's action looks like a classic head fake to me. Reminds me of the day after S&P inclusion announcement when the stock was up, but not skyrocketing. To that end, I took a flyer on some June '21 OTM call options.

Agreed. This reminds me of the action we saw on the day after inclusion announcement. There was a lot of accumulation and perhaps we need another minor catalyst/news to launch this rocket.

I'm just not willing to take $21 on a $700c for Friday when we are(I would say) very likely to OPEN higher than $721 tomorrow. Maybe just have to sit tight all the way into Wednesday!

I think the bots/MMs have got very smart at this but the patterns cannot be missed. I bet the accumulation and price action today was MMs trying to kill IV and buy back calls. Maybe look at rolling your calls to 3rd week or 4th week?

I would be shocked if there isn’t a Benchmark FOMO part deux in the next few weeks. Somebody will get the party started. The paradigm shift to EVs just got confirmed with data.

 

[gabeincal]

Saw this on Twitter. Put things into perspective: 10 years.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I was up 137% on these random 730C 4/23 so I sold them today. Then, taking note of the explosion in IV which made this possible, I turned around and sold some 750C 4/9. It's whatever. They are welcome to keep holding me down, just keep it below $750 this week and I'll forgive you.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think the bots/MMs have got very smart at this but the patterns cannot be missed. I bet the accumulation and price action today was MMs trying to kill IV and buy back calls. Maybe look at rolling your calls to 3rd week or 4th week?

100%. The IV was literally inside of my brain today sitting just below my willingness to sell. The algos are legit!

I really wish our sharpest minds weren't sitting around trying to figure out how to front-run a transaction by 1/100,000th of a second or predict my inner-most investment emotions. We complain about regulation for the sake of fairness, I want transparency and regulation to get our 2,000 brightest engineers out of hedge fund shops! Close all the nooks and crannies these clowns leverage.

 

[The Accountant]

Surely a lot of people are waiting for the financials. You can produce a lot of cars, even sell all of them.... but at what profit margin? regular posters and long term investors like us already know that the financials are likely to be pretty good, but you can see why more conservative investors would be waiting to see the actual bottom line before deciding to believe what they see with the prod and delivery report. Tesla energy remains as unknown, as usual.
Just chill and HODL. Not long till financials now.

I think there is some truth to this especially if the average investor keeps hearing:
1. Tesla loses money on every car they sell
2. Telsa cut car prices 15 times
3. Telsa is only profitable with regulatory credits
4. Tesla has never defined "deliveries" and it does not equate to sales

I hope the published Q1 with commentary from the Earnings Call gets the stock moving up agian to where is should be.

 

[Pras]

People ignoring (not on this forum but generally speaking) the delivery beat are missing that yet again Tesla is showing that we are constrained by our own limitations and we control how many cars we will sell. The more we build the more we sell. How many companies can say that?

Other typical growth companies (E.g. semiconductor, software) generally say that we will expand the market (more marketing, new market, new product etc), but supply is generally their least concern. Tesla has the market/customers and product, it just need to supply it.

 

[traxila]

Not going to complain because I got what I wanted. TSLA did not run to the stars and I got to load up short terms for earnings, which will be stellar IMO.

Now is Mr. Market going to make me pay for this? Very possibly. We are still struggling with 700.

The long weekend and market exploding all over the place made 1Q P and D easy to forget. BUT, does not mean it goes away. Tesla is primed for an incredible year, and anyone paying attention knows this.

Mr. Market paying attention?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Keep in mind there is still a massive amount of concern about this block trade fiasco and that perhaps there's gonna be some blood in the streets at some point. BlackRock was on Bloomberg yapping about holding the highest level of cash in years, just being primed to sell when a bargain appears and de-risk for the moment.

BlackRock’s Rieder: Running ‘Highest Level of Cash’ in Years

Rick Rieder, global fixed income CIO at BlackRock, discuses market fallout from the block trade turmoil, keeping cash on the sidelines to take advantage of opportunities, and preparing for improved economic growth. He speaks with Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg The Open." (Source: Bloomberg)

www.bloomberg.com

That makes for a lower volume environment which means SP can be pushed around a bit easier.

I'm starting to think the market in general(not regarding TSLA) is looking for actual passage of this relief package and/or a greater global vaccination effort. Maybe they're thinking the sell-in-May even might stall out the recovery. Obviously we double down our oil shorts to hedge in case that happens

 

[generalenthu]

this is something I'd like to see discussed a little bit more.

as far as I understand, if the stock substantially gaps up above a call wall (e.g. 700 for this week), and MM's don't manage to push the price down, they might feel a higher urgency to hedge the calls having gone ITM? And because ATM options have the highest gamma, that could provide some fuel for an upwards rise?

Looking at https://tsla-oi.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html for this and next week's expiration (H/T to @generalenthu) -- it seems that a jump from 661.80 to 711.80 would increase hedging requirements by (3,278,000-276,000) + (3,045,000- -1,680,000) = ~7,727,000 shares. That would be ~20% daily volume of pure buying pressure?

And a jump to 761.8 would mean an increase of (5,704,000-276,000) + (8,121,000- -1,680,000) = ~15,229,000. That would be ~50% daily volume of pure buying pressure?

Starting from what numbers can we expect the options hedging flywheel to become self-sustaining?

View attachment 651038

Was a busy day and didn't get to respond earlier.

I actually think while the near term calls have more gamma per contract, it's the longer term calls that actually cause the squeeze.

With near term options, while there's a call wall effect (where price can spiral higher once breached) there's also the other effect where newly in the money option holders are too quick on the trigger to take profits. I would characterize them as weak hands that create supply. If they're super bullish, they'll roll, but the action today was really meh given the macro backdrop and the P&D report.

In any case I'd pay more attention to gamma from leaps and longer dated options.

 

[st_lopes]

I know he can be divisive in this forum, but he does make an interesting point. Though I could argue that the prior performance was just typical TSLA following macros. The flip side is that macros are set up to make new ATHs over the next few weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1379155789634502658

 

[CyberDutchie]

Wall Street have a total crush on GM with anything auto transport related. Anything from driverless technology to EV’s. They somehow love GM. This while GM have hardly anything to show for. What is so special about their Ultium battery? Look at this 3 Autonomous Vehicle Stocks for Investors to Watch

And their total lack of due diligence with the Nikola and Lordtown partnerships being swept under the rug.

I don’t get it.

Not only Wall Street, politicians love GM. The “too big to fail” once pride of the USA automaker will get bailed out. Note the wording in the infrastructure package, words like “American made”, “labor-friendly”, it’s all a setup to make sure GM and Ford get their unfair share in the future electrified automotive fleet, whether they want it or not.

 

[MC3OZ]

I have seen suggest that the price per cell is quite variable.

The Limiting Factor quoted these raw material prices in one of his videos;-

• LFP - $8 kWh
• High Nickel - $25 kWh

There is a fair chance Lithium is a high proportion of the LFP cell cost.

The other thing we do know is most miners are robust negotiators, and Lithium miners are no exception, in fact they may be better than average.

If Tesla is extracting their own Lithium, we have to wonder what the cell cost for LFP cells produced in house on a Roadrunner line would be, eventually getting the raw materials cost below $8 kWh would not surprise me.

If I had to guess, tesla current NCM cells are in higher range for high Nickel so:-

• NCM - cost $150 kWh - Retail $200 kWh
• LFP - cost $50 kWh - Retail $100 kWh

While these are simply my guesses, I'm probably in the right ballpark,

Energy Storage Batteries are price sensitive, lowering the price will certainly lift demand.

As well a lot of the current TE losses are to do with ramping solar roof, even if that continued, a growth in Energy Storage sales will start to cancel it out.

My read on the current Solar Roof price increase is the online estimator is simply better at estimating. But in the past many jobs would have proceeded to a formal estimate only to be ruled out. It is better to give the customer a more accurate estimate earlier in the process.

For Solar Roof my hope it is becomes less of a drag on margins, it is a long term play, I'm not expecting it to contribute to profits in 2021, but I don't think it will stop TE becoming profitable,

The point of this post is to show how important Tesla inhouse LFP production is. I think Tesla, especially Drew, is well aware of this.