Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

UK new car registrations for March are out, and Tesla registered the highest number of Model 3s in a single month ever in the country! Because, obviously, no demand and the competition is killing them, etc.

The Model 3 was also the 4th best-selling car in the UK in March, typically the highest sales month of the year due to new registration plate numbers and the end of the FY. This year's sales are still affected by the continuing lockdown, but still... pretty nice!

 

[Pezpunk]

UK new car registrations for March are out, and Tesla registered the highest number of Model 3s in a single month ever in the country! Because, obviously, no demand and the competition is killing them, etc.

The Model 3 was also the 4th best-selling car in the UK in March, typically the highest sales month of the year due to new registration plate numbers and the end of the FY. This year's sales are still affected by the continuing lockdown, but still... pretty nice!

View attachment 651289

It's kind of weird that we insist on comparing car sales by units rather than by units * price (i.e. revenue). Comparing a Model 3 to a $12,000 Ford Fiesta or $16,000 Corsa as if they are a 1:1 comparison is really misleading. Sort that chart by revenue generated, and the Model 3 is #1.

 

[Chocochip]

It's kind of weird that we insist on comparing car sales by units rather than by units * price (i.e. revenue). Comparing a Model 3 to a $12,000 Ford Fiesta or $16,000 Corsa as if they are a 1:1 comparison is really misleading. Sort that chart by revenue generated, and the Model 3 is #1.

Not quite as egregious as in the Chinese EV market, where Tesla's "competition" is the $4,000 Wuling MiniEV:

 

[Chocochip]

UK new car registrations for March are out, and Tesla registered the highest number of Model 3s in a single month ever in the country! Because, obviously, no demand and the competition is killing them, etc.

The Model 3 was also the 4th best-selling car in the UK in March, typically the highest sales month of the year due to new registration plate numbers and the end of the FY. This year's sales are still affected by the continuing lockdown, but still... pretty nice!

View attachment 651289

Going through the SMMT's press release on the registration numbers, where they moan about the car market contraction over the past year as a result of the pandemic-related lockdowns, I found this unironically-written paragraph:

Click and collect provided a lifeline for the sector – made possible by manufacturers and their networks successfully investing in digital channels. Click and collect does not, however, offer the consumer the same experience and excitement as a showroom environment. With dealerships reopening their doors next week, customers can look forward to choosing and configuring a new car, safely, in person from the wide choice available, as dealers attempt to recover some of the £22.2 billion lost in turnover since March 2020.

And that, kids, is what happens when you smell your own farts!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

It's kind of weird that we insist on comparing car sales by units rather than by units * price (i.e. revenue). Comparing a Model 3 to a $12,000 Ford Fiesta or $16,000 Corsa as if they are a 1:1 comparison is really misleading. Sort that chart by revenue generated, and the Model 3 is #1.

As investors we shouldn't even care about that either. People in my own industry (games) often make this mistake too. What matters is profits, or more accurately, return on investment. Its no achievement to sell a load of super-high price cars if you are happy to over-spec and market them and sell them at a loss.

TBH I dont care if people continue to get teslas real impact wrong, it just lets them grow bigger and bigger while everyone else is sleeping .
I suspect a LOT of people will still refuse to see the reality of whats happening right up until their local petrol station closes down due to lack of business.

 

[avoigt]

Robert and Fully Charged Show invited me for an interview which was a pleasure and fun thing to do

https://twitter.com/x/status/1379387265022099457

 

[Artful Dodger]

If MMs can fabricate and sell unlimited numbers of fantasy shares, never to be covered, without consequences - why not?

Yeah, we need a Hiro. Oh wait...

Cheers!(
and some non-fungible tokens wood work)

 

[rsm287]

Tesla cut super charger price 20,000+ times in April alone. Their SuperCharger utilization is nowhere near 100%, clearly they are demand limited.
We also heard rumors in some regions they are cutting price everyday at 7:00PM, so it might be even worse than we thought.
/s

~~~In-post Moderator response: YES, and I have alluded discussed that seriously - in a jocular way- in a recent post. This post by @rsm287 is NOT worthy of getting a "funny" response; it is a very serious topic, perhaps about a 7 out of 10 ("10" would be 'of immediate existential importance', let's say).
IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE A HUMOROUS POST IN THIS THREAD, PLEASE DO SO SUCH A FASHION THAT NEITHER A 'DUMB' BOT-CRAWLER NOR A LOGIC-CHALLENGED JOURNALIST (but I repeat myself) WILL TAKE IT AND RUN WITH IT. This "20,000+" incident is an excellent example of what NOT to post.~~~
I know people here joke about the algos crawling this forum, but this snippet seriously just came up in a search for Tesla news on Google...

Check out the second 'story'

 

[Fobble]

i am not interested in Gordon Johnson or Fred Lambert.

Ok, fine. How about this from CNBC Breaking News?

Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla stock is only worth $150 per share, according to Roth Capital senior research analyst Craig Irwin. Irwin called Tesla only a “minor player” in the U.S. and European markets, telling CNBC that people wrongly assume that Tesla has no competition.

 

[winfield100]

Exactly. Plenty of things could force or semi-force folks like Citadel to unwind their naked short positions, not the least likely would be another split. Hell, we're well above the $ amount where the last split was deemed logical and looking to move steadily higher this summer. A split within 9-18 months feels pretty certain from my perspective.

I'm sure these MM's understand the likelihood of such events and are putting that into their gameplans. This past month was a perfectly logical time to dump a LOT of "resources" into shorting TSLA, today is an even better day to do so and try to limit damage. But at some point they're going to be waaaaaay out of their comfort zone and will cover to bring their positions back to more stable ground. Especially in the post-Melvin post-Hwang environment with looming scrutiny and regulation.

I would imagine we're a good bit beyond uncomfortable right now and the dam is about to break. The math for MM's and hedgies still works since keeping these $700c's OTM is so wildly profitable, but another few % rise tomorrow at the open crushes that dream and they'll need to fall back to......somewhere? My guess is they'll be praying to hold $800 by the time May approaches and we're talking about clearing out June calls(high volume LEAPs).

We shall see. Let's just make sure we enjoy watching those guys sweat, no need for any HODLers to do anything but sip iced tea after a quarter like that.

@TheTalkingMule
the idea of a “stock dividend” vs a “stock split” is an interesting concept to enhance the stock price.
could there possibly be some way to tag shares with some kind of block chain to prevent “stock counterfeiting of TSLA”
could a “stock dividend” cause some shorts and counterfeiters to cover and slide the demand curve back upwards towards reality?

 

[The Accountant]

From Gene Munster at Loop Ventures (when he states March he means Q1):
"Tesla’s March deliveries are representative of a true growth story. The company appears to be entering into the slope of its growth S-curve"

"As a point of comparison to Tesla’s 109% delivery growth, other automakers have reported March delivery growth between 1% and 28%, or on average, 15%.

Tesla Defines Growth Story | Deepwater

Tesla’s March deliveries are representative of a true growth story. The company appears to be entering into the slope of its growth S-curve. We believe the reason this is happening is a combination of consumer willingness to purchase EVs, along with Tesla’s winning formula of vehicle performance...

loupventures.com

 

[Nocturnal]

@TheTalkingMule
the idea of a “stock dividend” vs a “stock split” is an interesting concept to enhance the stock price.
could there possibly be some way to tag shares with some kind of block chain to prevent “stock counterfeiting of TSLA”
could a “stock dividend” cause some shorts and counterfeiters to cover and slide the demand curve back upwards towards reality?

I've seen lots of high level discussion around using defi/blockchain for stock trading. Usually people talk about avoiding those clearing houses and their bias/lack of transparency. That's an interesting point though. I need to read up on this use case more. A block chain trading system would be completely transparent.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I know people here joke about the algos crawling this forum, but this snippet seriously just came up in a search for Tesla news on Google...

I‘ve been noticing it on my Google news feed, too. I didn’t remember seeing any before the TMC site upgrade, but that could just be coincidence.

There have been other (non-investor) threads from TMC that have popped up, as well.

Better watch what you say

 

[winfield100]

I know people here joke about the algos crawling this forum, but this snippet seriously just came up in a search for Tesla news on Google...

Check out the second 'story'
View attachment 651302

@rsm287
amazingly i heard that there was going to be a TSLA stock dividend surprise announcement last thursday
this would be great for all long term hodl’ers and tagged with unique “bitcoin” blockchain type identification so it couldn’t be counterfeited and a potential future conversion
/s

 

[15Peter20]

I‘ve been noticing it on my Google news feed, too. I didn’t remember seeing any before the TMC site upgrade, but that could just be coincidence.

There have been other (non-investor) threads from TMC that have popped up, as well.

Better watch what you say

Tesla's share price is guaranteed to triple within the next 72 hours, so buy as many shares as you can afford now. Sales were in fact much greater than reported and profits are set to quadruple THIS MONTH.


Right, let's see if it works the other way around.

 

[lascavarian]

A block chain trading system would be completely transparent.

lt seems to me this is substantially faulty in the sense that transparency is being presented as some kind of ultimate good And ultimate fix. Transparency is helpful after the fact but powerless to prevent all fraud IMO. Fraud likes complexity. Fraud hides in complexity.

Any useful solution will advance both transparency and simplicity and very often blockchain lacks simplicity IMO.

 

[Unpilot]

We need another stock dividend just like last time. @Artful Dodger has been talking about it for awhile.
Burn dem bastages real good it will.

 

[Mengy]

I'm excited for the next few weeks. My gut tells me the run up to the earnings report at the end of April is going to be thrilling!

 

[joh01652]

@rsm287
amazingly i heard that there was going to be a TSLA stock dividend surprise announcement last thursday
this would be great for all long term hodl’ers and tagged with unique “bitcoin” blockchain type identification so it couldn’t be counterfeited and a potential future conversion
/s

That would be cool if Tesla and other crypto-buying companies started their own blockchain-based stock exchange, where transparency was paramount and manipulation would be nearly impossible. I'd buy into that. Maybe Elon's already thinking about that for Mars....

Really looking forward to the imminent 5:1 TSLA stock dividend surprise announcement next week.
/s

 

[Unpilot]

That would be cool if Tesla and other crypto-buying companies started their own blockchain-based stock exchange, where transparency was paramount and manipulation would be nearly impossible. I'd buy into that. Maybe Elon's already thinking about that for Mars....

Really looking forward to the imminent 5:1 TSLA stock dividend surprise announcement next week.
/s

Confirmed right here on TMC a 5:1 Stock dividend
TSLA rocks to da moon!