Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[powertoold]

I've been following the whole crapshow in TX and China, and I think one of the main thing that Tesla gets all the FUD is because people lack the basic understanding about EV. With Tesla being the synonym and the forefront of the industry, all that negativity is directed at Tesla, even though other EVs, or in the case of CR piece, all vehicles, are prone to problems when users aren't using it correctly.

As a TSLA shareholder, I think it's time for Elon to change the stance on no ads. I am not saying to go all out a la legacy carmakers to market their cars. Tesla cars are better than that. They don't need that. But EV sector as a whole needs that.

I'd say Tesla is leading the auto industry as a whole, not just EVs. Anything they do that's different will be scrutinized and picked apart.

This week has been tame compared to the FUD and pain we've endured in prior years. So I'd counter to say that Tesla shouldn't surrender to the ad industry. Things are still working out to Tesla's favor. Tesla has endured 10x more FUD than this (and during the hellish Model 3 ramp no less, a time when Tesla was actually at risk of bankruptcy and the team was squeezed to the max).

 

[Big Time]

Hope Fred reads this

Fred’s busy eating his bowl of dog food

 

[Bet TSLA]

I've been following the whole crapshow in TX and China, and I think one of the main thing that Tesla gets all the FUD is because people lack the basic understanding about EV. With Tesla being the synonym and the forefront of the industry, all that negativity is directed at Tesla, even though other EVs, or in the case of CR piece, all vehicles, are prone to problems when users aren't using it correctly.

As a TSLA shareholder, I think it's time for Elon to change the stance on no ads. I am not saying to go all out a la legacy carmakers to market their cars. Tesla cars are better than that. They don't need that. But EV sector as a whole needs that.

Tesla should make ads that EDUCATE consumers about EVs. A very simple thing like range anxiety... it's something we, Tesla or newer EV owners rarely encounter anymore because we charge at home and the car has enough range to cover most people's daily commute. Just do a funny short 15-30sec ad to target many of the misconceptions or worries of an ICE car owner about getting an EV, then end every ad with "Tesla".

By doing that, we can accelerate Tesla's mission, vastly speed up the transition from ICE cars to EV because the average consumer can understand better about it.

Ad was not feasible when TSLA had a 15B market cap and bleeding money. But with TSLA being a 700B juggernaut, it can afford to do that. Furthermore, I vote to spend every cent that Tesla makes on selling regulatory credit on EV/sustainable energy education ads. In 2020, TSLA made over 1 billion on those credits. Putting even just half that onto EV ads can make HUGE impacts on Tesla's business in the long run and probably make places like CNBC to be careful before writing FUDs because now TSLA will be an ad gorilla that spends almost 1B on ads every year. And with all that money coming from regulatory credits, it speaks volumes.

I'll support (not that my opinion makes any difference) educational advertising when Tesla has no problems with meeting demand. When do you think that will be? Until then there's pretty much no point in educating potential customers through paid advertising.

I am impressed no end with how Elon has decided to spend his "try to influence people" money: XPRIZE Carbon Removal. This is influencing people to act in a way that may prove useful and make the world a better place.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Interesting email I just received. I got my solar roof price increased like everybody else but this definitely softens the blow.

View attachment 656534

Does align with their "no solar without powerwall" mandate but wasn't expecting this.

Thanks - very interesting.
So, the contours of a multi-step plan for creating a nationwide (or even international/global) Virtual Power Plant (VPP) is becoming clear:

• Step 1 Raise the prices on solar roof.
• Step 2: Musk announces that Tesla will only sell complete systems.
• Step 3: The price hike has a sweetener, to avoid resentment and to avoid cancellations, namely powerwall(s) added.Remains to be seen if it is just 1 or more. Likely scaled to match the customers solar roof size.
• Step 4: Unlocking additional capacity. Recent tweet by Elon states that the current PowerWall limitations are conservative and may soon be changed - upwards.

Next step is to offer the Virtual Power Plant to customers with a comprehensive detailed legal, software (autobidder) and economical package. That may take a while, due to regulation. But there can be little doubt that the end goal of bundling PowerWalls is to enable participation in VPP.

Comments:
Re 1:
The initial price was just off, the price was too low. Musk always thinks ahead, and given enough scaling the old price might have worked. But no. In this initial phase the price was just way too low.
Note also that Tesla recently made the tiles bigger. My interpretation is that small tiles took too long for roofing crews to install. But, even with bigger tiles, still too low price.

Re 2:
I wondered for years about Tesla energy.
I think Tesla Energy started out in the early '15 and '16 as a hedge against then very important partner Panasonic. It was a card Elon could play everytime Pana was skeptical and foot-dragging wrt Teslas ability to selling even half a million EVs. (Remember how back then that was actually a big unknown, having never been done before)
So Tesla Energy was invented to drain any overcapacity should sales of the cars become problematic. Then it turned out the cars, especially the M3 were successful beyond measure. Tesla Energy has been starved for batteries since. The few projects done was the result of team Tesla long term planning: They needed a utility success, in order to prove to the world that the whole energy hardware software suit was up to the task. And yes, Hornsdale proved this very well.
The PowerWall situation was mystifying though - Tesla Energy retail was even more starved than utillity energy - people have been on waiting lists for PowerWall for years and years. So, why promise people vapor-ware? Again, Elons optimism perhaps got the better of him. From the outside Tesla seems to move fast, but perhaps Elon hoped for more batteries from Pana, CATL and others.
Perhaps Elon got tired of resistance from power companies and regulators, and decided that doing a grand scheme VPP is the best way forward. Also, it signals that the battery starvation is about to end soon.

re 4: Following Tesla's established success with OTA updates. This is a great differentiator for Tesla in contrast to the competition. Also, having more capacity and features is probably either benefitial or necessary for the VPP participation.

TLDR: Tesla is going all in on VPP for private consumers.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I've been following the whole crapshow in TX and China, and I think one of the main thing that Tesla gets all the FUD is because people lack the basic understanding about EV. With Tesla being the synonym and the forefront of the industry, all that negativity is directed at Tesla, even though other EVs, or in the case of CR piece, all vehicles, are prone to problems when users aren't using it correctly.

As a TSLA shareholder, I think it's time for Elon to change the stance on no ads. I am not saying to go all out a la legacy carmakers to market their cars. Tesla cars are better than that. They don't need that. But EV sector as a whole needs that.

Tesla should make ads that EDUCATE consumers about EVs. A very simple thing like range anxiety... it's something we, Tesla or newer EV owners rarely encounter anymore because we charge at home and the car has enough range to cover most people's daily commute. Just do a funny short 15-30sec ad to target many of the misconceptions or worries of an ICE car owner about getting an EV, then end every ad with "Tesla".

By doing that, we can accelerate Tesla's mission, vastly speed up the transition from ICE cars to EV because the average consumer can understand better about it.

Ad was not feasible when TSLA had a 15B market cap and bleeding money. But with TSLA being a 700B juggernaut, it can afford to do that. Furthermore, I vote to spend every cent that Tesla makes on selling regulatory credit on EV/sustainable energy education ads. In 2020, TSLA made over 1 billion on those credits. Putting even just half that onto EV ads can make HUGE impacts on Tesla's business in the long run and probably make places like CNBC to be careful before writing FUDs because now TSLA will be an ad gorilla that spends almost 1B on ads every year. And with all that money coming from regulatory credits, it speaks volumes.

Best way for an educational add: Make fun of the lacking ICE infrastructure.

"I feel sorry for traditional car owners: Why don't they have a gas station in their backyard? It must be sooo annoying to always cruise around looking for gas. I pity them. My car is always ready to go: I have my own re-filling station!".
End by showing a family doing holiday traveling, and refilling at SC. Close with the Tesla supercharger map of the US. Mic drop.

Range anxiety is still a big thing for people not knowledgeable about EVs. Address it upfront.

 

[RobStark]

Still lots of FUD about how Tesla is irresponsible for calling their system FSD, and that they shouldn't have Elon showing how you can take your hands off the wheel. Funny thing that. Mercedes, GM, and Ford doing just that.

The difference is Tesla says you must have your hands on the wheel at all times. Sometimes they say "always ready to take over." They have kinda sorta said the cabin camera can also monitor the driver.

The others are saying they have hands free systems because they have cameras/sensors right on the steering column/instrument cluster to monitor the eyes of the driver to make sure they are paying attention.

Elon says this hardware is an unnecessary expense because Level 5 is right around the corner. But he has been saying that since 2016.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Lol. Another good video from Juice Media.

Australia may have the worst government in the first world, but we make up for it with the best satire...

Cheers

 

[winfield100]

spacex crew dragon almost docked
2 spacex at ISS
live right
edit
5:08 EST soft capture at ISS
edit
this is going to be a “most excellent” earnings report
edit
they will be leaving dragon in an hour or so, 11 total astronauts, 2 dragons and a soyuz docked
their going to need a bigger station.....
edit
who has only 100% reusable rocket to ferry up modules.......to add on
NASA head yesterday was very positive about SpaceX

anyone planning on using Starship to ferry up things?
yes, already in works

(i shall margin a few more DCA shares monday for my children to inherit)
end of edits

 

[Unpilot]

spacex crew dragon almost docked
2 spacex at ISS
live right now
5:08 EST soft capture at ISS

And we flew a helicopter on Mars!

What a time to be alive!

 

[CorneliusXX]

I've been following the whole crapshow in TX and China, and I think one of the main thing that Tesla gets all the FUD is because people lack the basic understanding about EV. With Tesla being the synonym and the forefront of the industry, all that negativity is directed at Tesla, even though other EVs, or in the case of CR piece, all vehicles, are prone to problems when users aren't using it correctly.

As a TSLA shareholder, I think it's time for Elon to change the stance on no ads. I am not saying to go all out a la legacy carmakers to market their cars. Tesla cars are better than that. They don't need that. But EV sector as a whole needs that.

Tesla should make ads that EDUCATE consumers about EVs. A very simple thing like range anxiety... it's something we, Tesla or newer EV owners rarely encounter anymore because we charge at home and the car has enough range to cover most people's daily commute. Just do a funny short 15-30sec ad to target many of the misconceptions or worries of an ICE car owner about getting an EV, then end every ad with "Tesla".

By doing that, we can accelerate Tesla's mission, vastly speed up the transition from ICE cars to EV because the average consumer can understand better about it.

Ad was not feasible when TSLA had a 15B market cap and bleeding money. But with TSLA being a 700B juggernaut, it can afford to do that. Furthermore, I vote to spend every cent that Tesla makes on selling regulatory credit on EV/sustainable energy education ads. In 2020, TSLA made over 1 billion on those credits. Putting even just half that onto EV ads can make HUGE impacts on Tesla's business in the long run and probably make places like CNBC to be careful before writing FUDs because now TSLA will be an ad gorilla that spends almost 1B on ads every year. And with all that money coming from regulatory credits, it speaks volumes.

While there is a ton of noise in the media, Tesla still sells every car it can make and it has done so while increasing prices several times over the last couple of months. This is against a background of declining costs due to wrights law and Elon's many statements that increasing affordability of EVs is one of his main priorities.

Demand must be incredibly strong for these events to be occurring concurrently. Until that changes there is clearly no need for advertising.

These silly media frenzies are not having an impact where it matters.

 

[brantse]

Is Elon sending us a message?

"What does the future hodl?"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1385879790381641728

 

[Maarten]

As a European investor we always look at the exchange rate USD vs Euro.
When you look at it over the past year, it's not a sight that makes me happy:

However, it is always a thing of perspective: have a look at the 10 years chart:

So, we can do worse! But please, more dec. 2016 times in stead of april 2011 times....

Note: I always resize any pictures that I post to ca. 1200x900 pixels, which appears to be a good exchange between good resolution and short time to load.
Nowadays we have fast internet practically everywhere, but when in regions where it is slow (like Bali ), it is nice to have pictures that load quickly.
Little work, big effect.

 

[OrthoSurg]

He'll complain that a 30k increase doesn't justify a free powerwall.

I honestly think the original solar roof cost was way lower than my expectations. Orthosurg what was your initial quote and roof size?

Sorry, no quotation for me yet on solar roof in Canada. My wife is an electrical engineer at HQ and calculated it would take more than 60 years for a solar roof to pay itself. We pay hydroelectricity 0.06$ per kWh.

She’s a supporter of the powewall because of the more frequent outages because the administrators have cut the maintenance on the grid for the last 5 years so save costs so we get more and more outages from trees falling on distribution lines during storms.

But we may use the Cybertruck as a portable powerwall instead. Might be a powertruck.

 

[dww12]

I've been following the whole crapshow in TX and China, and I think one of the main thing that Tesla gets all the FUD is because people lack the basic understanding about EV. With Tesla being the synonym and the forefront of the industry, all that negativity is directed at Tesla, even though other EVs, or in the case of CR piece, all vehicles, are prone to problems when users aren't using it correctly.

As a TSLA shareholder, I think it's time for Elon to change the stance on no ads. I am not saying to go all out a la legacy carmakers to market their cars. Tesla cars are better than that. They don't need that. But EV sector as a whole needs that.

Tesla should make ads that EDUCATE consumers about EVs. A very simple thing like range anxiety... it's something we, Tesla or newer EV owners rarely encounter anymore because we charge at home and the car has enough range to cover most people's daily commute. Just do a funny short 15-30sec ad to target many of the misconceptions or worries of an ICE car owner about getting an EV, then end every ad with "Tesla".

By doing that, we can accelerate Tesla's mission, vastly speed up the transition from ICE cars to EV because the average consumer can understand better about it.

Ad was not feasible when TSLA had a 15B market cap and bleeding money. But with TSLA being a 700B juggernaut, it can afford to do that. Furthermore, I vote to spend every cent that Tesla makes on selling regulatory credit on EV/sustainable energy education ads. In 2020, TSLA made over 1 billion on those credits. Putting even just half that onto EV ads can make HUGE impacts on Tesla's business in the long run and probably make places like CNBC to be careful before writing FUDs because now TSLA will be an ad gorilla that spends almost 1B on ads every year. And with all that money coming from regulatory credits, it speaks volumes.

Ads are for spreading lies. Other than the FSD timeline, Tesla is about the truth. We need a Dominion type lawsuit. That stopped their FUD from media outlets.

 

[Mengy]

Australia may have the worst government in the first world, but we make up for it with the best satire...

That was both hilarious and yet sad at the same time. I had no idea Australia was so backwards on EV's.

 

[Buckminster]

I only do optimism. Pretty sure CGT increase can only be good for TSLA (if it passes):

1) Peeps gonna roll out of Exxon and into TSLA before it goes through. Who wants to hold the Exxon bag? Sell in 2 yrs and pay 40% CGT or sell in 5 yrs and hope you have a CGT bill following the losses.
2) Fewer people will sell TSLA down the line - short squeeze 3.0 (I'm still wtg for 2.0...)

Many will realise that TSLA is the generational company that you can buy to ride this out.

 

[CLK350]

Is Elon sending us a message?

"What does the future hodl?"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1385879790381641728

Actually super ambiguous, the weekend teaser I guess: HODL apparently was first used in the BTC context, which explains the unusually high number of Tweet comments from crypto fans

https://twitter.com/x/status/1385930647248715781

 

[PeterJA]

These silly media frenzies are not having an impact where it matters.

 

[Hock1]

Well, I’m thinking about giving things another week, and if nothing positive happens SP-wise, I think I'll cash out about 10% TSLA and redeploy into a couple of the non-TSLA ARK ETFs. I don’t see any big catalysts until the new factories start coming on-line.

I'm so glad you wrote that. Guarantee of going to moon. Thanks.

 

[PeterJA]

Best way for an educational add: Make fun of the lacking ICE infrastructure.

"I feel sorry for traditional car owners: Why don't they have a gas station in their backyard? It must be sooo annoying to always cruise around looking for gas. I pity them. My car is always ready to go: I have my own re-filling station!".
End by showing a family doing holiday traveling, and refilling at SC. Close with the Tesla supercharger map of the US. Mic drop.

Range anxiety is still a big thing for people not knowledgeable about EVs. Address it upfront.

Great concept for an ad. Why don't you suggest it to one of the hungry little digital-media startups that make such ads to showcase their talent. Many such Tesla ads are on YouTube. Or you could produce it yourself if you are savvy with home video.

If they/you do a good job, the YouTube ad could go viral and reach millions. Elon could retweet it to his 50 million followers, who could retweet it to theirs, etc.

Put some humor in it for maximum effect. Here is a good example, although it's an expensive pro commercial. Cheaper spots can be effective with a little creativity.