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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Sorry to see the fire problem even for competitors. Doesn't help the mission at all.

The Bolt problem is related to EVs and a setback to the mission.

The Hyundai problem is a general problem (not ICE-specific) and could happen to any vehicle with brake fluid leaking near electrical connections.
 
SMR's videos are great, but I generally view them as entertainment and a general aggregator. This one raises some interesting ideas that I haven't particularly heard before. Worth a watch. I've speculated about tesla vehicles being used by governments for crime purposes, but I'm thinking the use cases might be quite large. Road condition monitoring and real time street view services are really cool ideas.

 
Tesla created GA 4.5 rounded tent in February 2020 (Tesla files to expand Fremont factory, make Model Y 'tent' permanent) and expanded it several times, they only filed the paperwork for GA 4.5 to be made permament mid February 2021.

Doh - thanks for the correction - seems I got turned around - it's clear now from the video you posted that I was using the wrong side of the pointy tent as a reference.

Regardless, they are doing some additional work on the 4.5 rounded tent - perhaps related to making 4.5 permanent as you stated.
 
Hmm. Wonder how access is limited?

My suggestion.

Identification:
If tunnels are limited to Tesla vehicles they can communicate via Bluetooth/WiFi.
For other EVs visual model recognition cross checked with number plate,. the car needs to be registered for tunnel use in advance.

Barrier:
Now they know which cars are not permitted to enter the tunnel, they can have some sort of automatic barrier which closes...
To avoid blocking traffic, the barrier system has to steer the offending vehicle into another lane, so the ICE car can get away from the scene, ,but can never enter the tunnel. Any incorrectly identified EV suffers the same fate...

Enforcement:
Camera can send details of offenders to authorities, EV owners can correct the wrong identification.
 
OT

Had a thought this week, triggered by several stars aligning and pointing in the same direction.

Firstly there was the survey that revealed that Elon was well respected by the vast majority of people.

Second was the Gates split, which raised the difference between Bill and Elon. I've never been a Microsoft fan - their software releases always seemed designed to force the user to upgrade, not just the product in question, but other software too. Tesla on the other hand design their products for minimum service and max lifespan. Musk aims to make the world a better place. Gates aims to extort your cash - a tax on doing business.

Then last night I watched episode one of a trashy TV series called Riviera. It revolves around the mega rich, with their yachts, sportscars, art collections, private jets, glitzy lifestyles, obsessions with money and no day job to speak of.

None of the characters presented as likeable or worthy of respect. Yet it wasn't that long ago that signs of wealth (such as a prestige car or a suit and tie) seemed to automatically garner respect. Things have changed. I suspect the world has changed. Elon has moved the goal posts.

If the world's mega rich decide that to be on par with Elon, they can't do it with cash alone or with a touch of philanthropy - they have to do good through their core enterprises, that's huge. The Elon effect could have a greater impact on our chances of turning around the Keeling Curve than even the Tesla effect.

Cheers
 
Speculation that this is done to improve the car's rated range. VW is good at cheating after all, it makes sense they would do this to increase rated range even though the driving experience with such heavily throttled acceleration probably sucks.
I believe power is limited by less powerful power electronics to save money. The more powerful the power transistors that feed the motors, the more they cost. They probably save a bit on the motors as well.

Teslas, on the other hand, are designed to be fast. They had to be to stop the FUD that EV's were inferior. It costs more money for power electronics that handle more current but, unlike ICE engines, the extra power does not cost but a miniscule amount of efficiency. It looks like VW knew they had to be competitive with Tesla on some level and they chose cost. Probably a smart move.

O.T. note: There is a widely held misconception that strong acceleration kills range. This is far more true with ICE than EV, in my experience. Sure, there is an efficiency hit if your tires are fighting for traction but electric motors have relatively flat power/efficiency curves in the middle 80% of the torque curve. It's just as inefficient to accelerate like grandma as it is to accelerate like you mean it. Stay out of the traction limited area in a Tesla and your efficiency will be fine. Braking, regen or especially friction, is what kills efficiency.
 
I believe power is limited by less powerful power electronics to save money. The more powerful the power transistors that feed the motors, the more they cost. They probably save a bit on the motors as well.

Teslas, on the other hand, are designed to be fast. They had to be to stop the FUD that EV's were inferior. It costs more money for power electronics that handle more current but, unlike ICE engines, the extra power does not cost but a miniscule amount of efficiency. It looks like VW knew they had to be competitive with Tesla on some level and they chose cost. Probably a smart move.

O.T. note: There is a widely held misconception that strong acceleration kills range. This is far more true with ICE than EV, in my experience. Sure, there is an efficiency hit if your tires are fighting for traction but electric motors have relatively flat power/efficiency curves in the middle 80% of the torque curve. It's just as inefficient to accelerate like grandma as it is to accelerate like you mean it. Stay out of the traction limited area in a Tesla and your efficiency will be fine. Braking, regen or especially friction, is what kills efficiency.
Heat management and fire avoidance
 
There appears to be a widely held belief that the lull the share price has been in lately is due to FUD, the fatal Texas crash, mis-messaging by Tesla, etc.

I disagree. While there is no doubt these things have at least a small short-term effect, I don't think we would exactly be rallying, at least not strongly, after Q1 results and guidance, even without all the FUD and mis-messaging. While Q1 results were not far from spectacular, I think the share price softness is primarily due to forward guidance. The earnings call sent the message that Tesla's growth will limited by batteries and that 4180 cells will not be manufactured in large volume until 2022. Tesla will buy every cell their suppliers can provide. This probably limits growth somewhat through most of the year (from where it would be if not cell-constrained), even if the growth is good to very good. High valuations come from from being able to knock it out of the park and the battery situation appears to put a damper on the best possible results. I have little doubt they will be strong results but probably not as strong as possible. At least that is the story the market is looking at, actual results could differ but I tend to agree with the market at this point.

The growth will be spectacular in 2022, when 4180 cells are in volume production, and the share price will rise in anticipation of that, probably well before the 4180's are actually in high-volume production because the market will be anticipating a great 2022 unless we have clues that battery progress is slower than anticipated. All bets are off (in a good way) if Tesla is sand-bagging 4180 progress reports or development of battery production falls together more quickly than currently expected. The market loves to anticipate blow-out results in advance of the actual numbers but, likewise, when you have a high valuation, you have to continually deserve it with very good results.

Good times are ahead, but, as usual, the exact timing of when that's recognized is really impossible to forecast. But keep your eyes on the batteries, not on mis-messaging and news stories full of FUD. That might impact shares in the immediate term due to emotions of investors and knee-jerk reactions but it's not what determines the trading range of Tesla, at least not in this stage of their growth, because Tesla products are not demand limited. It's just noise to the actual market for Tesla shares.
 
There appears to be a widely held belief that the lull the share price has been in lately is due to FUD, the fatal Texas crash, mis-messaging by Tesla, etc.

I disagree. While there is no doubt these things have at least a small short-term effect, I don't think we would exactly be rallying, at least not strongly, after Q1 results and guidance, even without all the FUD and mis-messaging. While Q1 results were not far from spectacular, I think the share price softness is primarily due to forward guidance. The earnings call sent the message that Tesla's growth will limited by batteries and that 4180 cells will not be manufactured in large volume until 2022. Tesla will buy every cell their suppliers can provide. This probably limits growth somewhat through most of the year (from where it would be if not cell-constrained), even if the growth is good to very good. High valuations come from from being able to knock it out of the park and the battery situation appears to put a damper on the best possible results. I have little doubt they will be strong results but probably not as strong as possible. At least that is the story the market is looking at, actual results could differ but I tend to agree with the market at this point.

The growth will be spectacular in 2022, when 4180 cells are in volume production, and the share price will rise in anticipation of that, probably well before the 4180's are actually in high-volume production because the market will be anticipating a great 2022 unless we have clues that battery progress is slower than anticipated. All bets are off (in a good way) if Tesla is sand-bagging 4180 progress reports or development of battery production falls together more quickly than currently expected. The market loves to anticipate blow-out results in advance of the actual numbers but, likewise, when you have a high valuation, you have to continually deserve it with very good results.

Good times are ahead, but, as usual, the exact timing of when that's recognized is really impossible to forecast. But keep your eyes on the batteries, not on mis-messaging and news stories full of FUD. That might impact shares in the immediate term due to emotions of investors and knee-jerk reactions but it's not what determines the trading range of Tesla, at least not in this stage of their growth, because Tesla products are not demand limited. It's just noise to the actual market for Tesla shares.
I disagree, it's nothing so technically elaborate IMO. 1Q deliveries indicated ~100% growth is much more likely now for 2021 and was already close to a lock for 2022. I think deliveries caught the big players off guard, but they're simply continuing with their plans regardless.

Shorting shot up dramatically for the period thru 3/31 and sure feels like it's increasing since.

MM naked shorting also feels quite heavy, if not as heavy as pre-eaenings, primarily in support of the proper shorting initiatives above.

I think these guys were making the obvious post-inclusion re-opening trade and got caught by a surprise 1Q. 1Q should have been a modest disappointment. Lucky for them macro sentiment along with increased naked/proper shorting and a ton of FUD has had no problem maintaining the negative sentiment.

This TX crash nonsense is not enough to do this on it's own, but I think it's wrong to discount the fact that every non-fanboi person that hears the word Tesla now starts talking about how they crash themselves.

This would be backfiring in a big way IMO if we weren't already at a pretty crazy $700B market cap. As it is, we'll probably float around here a while. Would love to see a split announced.