Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Why Q3? Why not Q2? I expect this to be another record quarter, and while Q3 will be even better with more S and X, the P/E ratio should already improve markedly early July. Or am I mistaken?

No you're correct in that the P/E will drop dramatically after Q2 earnings......if the stock stays where it's at, it'll drop to 200-250 P/E multiple. Burry can and probably will say a P/E of 200-250 is still too high( such an idiot)

I say Q3 earnings because I still find that to be the quarter where so many elements could combine to produce a pretty absurd earnings beat. And if the stock stays in the 500-600's, could easily send the P/E to 100. At that kind of P/E, I think even value investors would start piling in and Burry's short would be blown to bits. Hell I could see Buffet jumping in at that kind of P/E for such a growth stock.

The reason I think Q3 has that potential is:

- At least 12-15k Plaid S/X. Potentially higher. But even 12-15k would be a big boost to margins and thus profits. If they actually get closer to 20-25k, margins and profits would greatly be impacted.
- FSD subscription model will have been released and will show on earnings
- Potentially more FSD recognition due to V9 going wide and also higher uptake rate once sub model is released
- Biden Infrastructure plan implemented resulting in a 1-2k, maybe even 3k price hike across the board for US Model 3/Y's.
- Continued cost savings with no equivalent price cuts. At least for in the US. I think price cuts are done for the next couple of years in the US market.
- Adding Traxila's comment - Continued expansion of Giga press usage in Fremont/China leading to margin expansion

Potential things that won't impact earnings but will greatly impact the stock:

- Giga Berlin starts pilot production in Q3
- Giga Texas also starts pilot production in Q3
- First Semi's start rolling off the pilot lines in Q3.

 

[traxila]

Why Q3? Why not Q2? I expect this to be another record quarter, and while Q3 will be even better with more S and X, the P/E ratio should already improve markedly early July. Or am I mistaken?

Assuming TSLA continues to sell every car it makes as it ramps production, the PE will be crushed over the next year.

The wild card for me insofar as their factory production is how much larger they can make their GMs with the casting machines and automation improvements. They may well end up with record margins and productivity for a mass production car company (greater than a million cars per year). This, coupled with their basically zero debt, makes for an explosive combination for the SP.

In all fairness to people like Burry, Tesla needs to continue to execute on a very high level with the car production to justify their current valuation. But if Tesla continues ramp as forecast, then it is very hard to still see TSLA at current levels two years from now. And, of course, if Tesla delivers on FSD well.... yeah... The stock will go up .

 

[Boomer19]

Burry is half a billion short on Tesla

That can turn into an expensive trade for him

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla

Michael Burry is long puts against 800,100 shares of Tesla or $534 million by the end of the first quarter.

www.cnbc.com

what’s the inverse of a gamma squeeze?
@Artful Dodger

 

[SOULPEDL]

If we close below 563........this is definitely not going to be a 3 day thing. Look out below if it does.

A single piece of news can spark the whole thing off. We must be really close now based on the extreme FUD. This is the sound of winning IMHO.

Anyway, this is the train wreck I decided to enter when contemplating the good fight (HODL) vs timing the market to sidestep this crazy economy.
I do see another 10 bagger brewing, so a drop to 500, 400, 300 is just sad (especially the buys at $800). But I also imagine the public shock from a bounce off that low to over $1,000, and saying "Darn, missed it AGAIN!" And the catalyst may be nothing anyone here even knows about yet.

 

[lascavarian]

Interesting article related to Elon and yet another popular crypto scam.

Elon Musk impersonators cost consumers more than $2 million in cryptocurrency scams, FTC says

Consumers have lost more than $2 million since October to scammers impersonating Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk saying he would multiply cryptocurrency...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[dl003]

If Burry has any valuation knowledge, he's going to get out before Q3 P/D numbers and Q3 earnings. I can't possibly believe he's that dumb as to not understand what's going to happen to Tesla P/E after Q3/Q4 earnings.

This is where I have learned so much from our man @DaveT
Burry didn't do an ounce of qualitative analysis on TSLA.
He just did the same quantitative work with the same data as any other number cruncher on WS.
I'm not gonna put much weight on him pulling out in time to avoid the freight train. After all, he is short TSLA.

 

[Tslynk67]

After the Burry disclosure it’s time for Elon to come out.

For a beer with the lads?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No you're correct in that the P/E will drop dramatically after Q2 earnings......if the stock stays where it's at, it'll drop to 200-250 P/E multiple. Burry can and probably will say a P/E of 200-250 is still too high( such an idiot)

I say Q3 earnings because I still find that to be the quarter where so many elements could combine to produce a pretty absurd earnings beat. And if the stock stays in the 500-600's, could easily send the P/E to 100. At that kind of P/E, I think even value investors would start piling in and Burry's short would be blown to bits. Hell I could see Buffet jumping in at that kind of P/E for such a growth stock.

The reason I think Q3 has that potential is:

- At least 12-15k Plaid S/X. Potentially higher. But even 12-15k would be a big boost to margins and thus profits. If they actually get closer to 20-25k, margins and profits would greatly be impacted.
- FSD subscription model will have been released and will show on earnings
- Potentially more FSD recognition due to V9 going wide and also higher uptake rate once sub model is released
- Biden Infrastructure plan implemented resulting in a 1-2k, maybe even 3k price hike across the board for US Model 3/Y's.
- Continued cost savings with no equivalent price cuts. At least for in the US. I think price cuts are done for the next couple of years in the US market.
- Adding Traxila's comment - Continued expansion of Giga press usage in Fremont/China leading to margin expansion

Potential things that won't impact earnings but will greatly impact the stock:

- Giga Berlin starts pilot production in Q3
- Giga Texas also starts pilot production in Q3
- First Semi's start rolling off the pilot lines in Q3.

And the key reason I say Burry's short will be blown to bits is that from Q3 earnings on......that's no relenting of the growth, both revenue and profit-wise for at least the next year and half.

Let's say the stock stays around 600 all the way to Q3 earnings and Tesla P/E drops to 100. Ok now you're going to have value investors piling in plus anyone that wants growth....Say they send the stock up 25% after Q3 earnings and the P/E goes to 125. Well then next quarter Tesla's going to grow EPS likely by another 25%....so the P/E goes back down to 100 and another wave of investors pile in.....then the same thing is going to happen in Q1 with both Berlin and Texas starting decent output. As Berlin and Texas output grows each quarter throughout 2022, it's going to push earnings up anywhere from 15-35% every quarter.

That cycle will repeat quarter...after quarter...all throughout 2022 and probably the first half of 2023. And this without me really factoring a tsunami of profits coming in from FSD or Energy turning very profitable due to more battery supply finally letting it ramp above it's costs.

So for Burry, dude you either cover before Q3 earnings or you're never going to have a good chance to get out again. His choice

 

[elasalle]

After the Burry disclosure it’s time for Elon to come out.

Many options ...
S refresh deliveries starting June, send out a few a week early.
FSD in 2 weeks, provide an update
CT Q2 update due.

Rest takes care of itself

 

[Phobi]

Indeed, for a guy that seemed to get famous for "reading in-between the lines" with the real estate bubble, he's totally missing the mark on TSLA. So be it, we all gotta get our gains back from somebody...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Many options ...
S refresh deliveries starting June, send out a few a week early.
FSD in 2 weeks, provide an update
CT Q2 update due.

Rest takes care of itself

Don't forget Semi......there were the rumors/sources saying they're starting pilot production at Sparks

 

[Tslynk67]

For what it's worth, $TSLA closed today @ $576.83, $1.28 higher than the open @ $575.55

 

[Nocturnal]

Crypto market hit the bottom and is slightly green now. Let's hope TSLA starts doing the same.

 

[RobStark]

Yes, but nobody said the low-volume Pontiac stamping facility was for roadsters and limousines, they said, "Production is expected to ramp up later in 2021 with the all-new GMC Hummer EV Pickup, while the upcoming GMC Hummer EV SUV, Chevy Silverado EV, and Cruise Origin robo-taxi will be built there as well.

"as well" not exhaustive list.

In GM terms, Hummer and Cruise origin will also be low volume. These are less than 50k units per year. The robotaxi will be low volume for at least several years.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's interesting, because the casting in that photo looks nothing like the skateboard rendering from Battery Day, except for the wheel housing at the upper left.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

So I'm guessing the casting is for Semi.

Tesla's giant-casting tech seems to be a secret weapon that is under the radar of most analysts and bears. For years, they have been saying Tesla will be crushed by OEMs that "really know how to make cars." Such non-first-principles thinkers are in for a rude surprise.

They look pretty similar to me when we frame the same portion of each casting.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Burry being good at real estate derivative valuation does not make him even vaguely good at growth/tech stocks. You could not pick more opposing financial instruments if you tried.
Real estate is boring, fixed asset valuation, with all the complexity being in how the underlying asset has been repackaged. There is none of that with TSLA. He is trying to value a simple stock, not some clever synthetic credit default swap on low quality mortgages.
I suspect he is one of those people that simply cannot take anything into account that is not in a spreadsheet. That means he likely has not driven a tesla and seen what the fuss is about. He likely has no idea how popular teslas CEO is with young people (future customers), or how staggering his social media presence really is.

I can understand people 'not getting it', and thus not buying TSLA. But if you are going to short this company you need to:

1. Buy a tesla / rent one for a week and go on some roadtrips in it. Use autopilot.
2. Follow elon on twitter for a week and read replies to his tweets
3. Read the ashlee vance book, or the new one on spacex.
4. Watch the falcon heavy double booster landing.

Then ask yourself again if you are really going to bet on this guy failing, or giving up.

 

[thx1139]

They look pretty similar to me when we frame the same portion of each casting.
View attachment 663256View attachment 663258

Lighting and angle. Not to mention simply design changes as time goes by.

 

[FlamingPIG]

Burry is irrelevant, the media trying to make him look relevant by click baity headline of "half BILLLLLLLION bet against Tesla"

reddit user _ _TSA_ _ explain this simply:
PSA: The $530m figure is false, it's a (common) misreading of 13-F filings.
Burry has 8,000 puts, which are not worth $530m...
The strikes & expiries of the puts are not disclosed in 13-F SEC filings - the "value" of the puts are listed shares-equivalent (as if he owned 800,000 TSLA shares), massively inflated.
The $530m was simply the current value of 800,000 TSLA shares when the Form 13-F was filed, at around TSLA $662:
800,000 x $665 = $530m

 

[Carl Raymond]

They look pretty similar to me when we frame the same portion of each casting.
View attachment 663256View attachment 663258

I find that kind of bullish, that the first thing Giga pressed at the new factory is a semi, not a Y. Suggests they have the Y down pat, and they will take those semi castings and build a real semi. i.e. expand the capability envelope.

Edit: sorry, ignore the above. It is a Y shot from close range.

 

[dl003]

Burry being good at real estate derivative valuation does not make him even vaguely good at growth/tech stocks. You could not pick more opposing financial instruments if you tried.
Real estate is boring, fixed asset valuation, with all the complexity being in how the underlying asset has been repackaged. There is none of that with TSLA. He is trying to value a simple stock, not some clever synthetic credit default swap on low quality mortgages.
I suspect he is one of those people that simply cannot take anything into account that is not in a spreadsheet. That means he likely has not driven a tesla and seen what the fuss is about. He likely has no idea how popular teslas CEO is with young people (future customers), or how staggering his social media presence really is.

I can understand people 'not getting it', and thus not buying TSLA. But if you are going to short this company you need to:

1. Buy a tesla / rent one for a week and go on some roadtrips in it. Use autopilot.
2. Follow elon on twitter for a week and read replies to his tweets
3. Read the ashlee vance book, or the new one on spacex.
4. Watch the falcon heavy double booster landing.

Then ask yourself again if you are really going to bet on this guy failing, or giving up.

fundamentally, these are 2 different kinds of bet. During the housing crisis, thousands of mortgage were bundled together. As soon as a certain percentage of them failed, the whole thing would implode. We're talking about thousands of points of failure here and statistics would dictate the one who had accurately done their homework to be victorious. In contrast, there is only one Tesla and one Elon Musk. There is only one point of failure. There's no probabilities, at least none that can be calculated. If you misjudge the man, you're done.