Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Haha, YES it does. You know what you're missing? Provisions for the 35+ GWh/yr supply of 2170 bty cells currently under contract from Panasonic America to Tesla in Fremont.

You know, the supply for which these two companies just renewed their contract for the next 3 years?

Think about it. If Tesla won't turn off their 10-yr running supply of Panasonic 18650 cells for the refreshed S/X why/how on earth would they turn off the bty cell printing machine at Giga Nevada.

Hint: they will not. It's all about the BATTERIES.

Tesla Energy is fairly form factor agnostic. It can use any cells (mass and volume are not as critical) as long as the price is right.

 

[henchman24]

Haha, YES it does. You know what you're missing? Provisions for the 35+ GWh/yr supply of 2170 bty cells currently under contract from Panasonic America to Tesla in Fremont.

You know, the supply for which these two companies just renewed their contract for the next 3 years?

Think about it. If Tesla won't turn off their 10-yr running supply of Panasonic 18650 cells for the refreshed S/X why/how on earth would they turn off the bty cell printing machine at Giga Nevada.

Hint: they will not. It's all about the BATTERIES.

Tesla has plenty of use cases for the 2170s for the next few years. The switch over to 4680s completely would be at least 2+ years out from early 2022 for 3/Y. Plus the Semi will likely start with 2170s and could eat up those batteries if the cars all swapped over. Then you can get into Powerwall and Megapack (which should swap over to iron phosphate long term).

 

[Big Time]

Wait what? My ticker must be broken it went up.

 

[asburgers]

Wait what? My ticker must be broken it went up.

I worked really hard for that. Sea shanties non-stop is my version of the rally hat.

 

[scaesare]

They look pretty similar to me when we frame the same portion of each casting.
View attachment 663256View attachment 663258

I agree.

I wonder if that lower webbing present between the left and right side structural members is just excess from the casting process that would be trimmed, as it's not present in the render...

 

[jkirkwood001]

Context please. Don’t strip out words or sentences and ignore what came before and after. The message is meant to be considered in its entirety.

But let’s just go with it; if people did just use facts for investing then the market would not trade irrationally, would it? The very fact people must voice opinions, must speculate, must try and bend the will of others to line up with theirs, must try and game the system because money is the very reason we find ourselves in this situation.

The market is a reflection of us all. We get out of it exactly what we put in.

Thanks for this, Krugerrand. With respect, yes and no.

• The fact is Tesla currently sells 0.8% of the current auto market, right? The hope of most of the people in this forum is that Tesla can sell 10%-20%-30% of that market years from now. That's aspirational, not factual.
• The fact is most consumers are worried that EVs will run out of battery and leave them stranded, ignoring the fact there are many more power plugs in the world than gas stations. It's our hope that the majority can be convinced to trust EVs.
• The fact is that - as several have recently reiterated - Tesla's success is largely tied to the ability of a single point-of-failure, Elon Musk. Should anything happen to that one person, all bets are off. The fact is, that's a risky proposition by most measures of risk mitigation. It's our hope that Elon will stay healthy, sane, and engaged to drive Tesla to execute it's ambitious mission - not a 'given' by any stretch.

I'd suggest that Tesla's current market price is based way more on hope than fact. I think that's "normal" and fair game. You know I believe that too as I'm also a HODL investor. There are many irrational investors and they're part of the market too. "Smart" investors take that sentiment into account as well. As you say, the SP is reflective of us all.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Energy is fairly form factor agnostic. It can use any cells (mass and volume are not as critical) as long as the price is right.

Indeed, Tesla has long had the option to request 2170 cells from Giga Nevada with either NCA (automotive) or NMC (storage) chemistries.

However recently Tesla announced that they are switching to iron-based cell chemisty for storage products larger/heavier than Powerwall (which still needs to be light enough for humans to lift/install).

So big ticket items like Powerpack and Megapack will use new cells, which as you say can be in any suitable form factor (I suspect they want cylindrical cells). Tesla cares mostly about price, cycle-life, reliability, and availability. Meet those 4 criteria, and Tesla will buy every TWh you can make.

Cheers!

 

[joh01652]

There are a lot of people on twitter suggesting Tesla will be excluded from subsidies for not being unionized. That would be unconstitutional. Tesla has zero control over whether their employees want to be part of a union.

Biden is saying the bill will create union jobs simply because the vast majority of the companies where jobs will be created are unionized.

You need to stop listening to people on twitter.

Tesla makes the best EVs. Period. No one is even close. Tesla will continue to sell every EV they make at a profit, with or without Biden's help.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

There goes the quality / panel gap FUD

I'm not an engineer but I think the two castings and structural pack reduces a lot of tiny but compounding misalignments, right? I have a feeling that this change not only reduces cost and the number of robots needed for these parts but probably also reduces cost and increases speed across the entire line. Seems like the processes further down the line get easier once the underlying structure is more precise and consistent.

Also might allow them to spin up new factories in a smaller footprint at a lower cost.

I think we're all going to be really impressed by the margin and growth once this new process is implemented

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1394650342223015937

 

[henchman24]

There goes the quality / panel gap FUD View attachment 663418

I'm not an engineer but I think the two castings and structural pack reduces a lot of tiny but compounding misalignments, right? I have a feeling that this change not only reduces cost and the number of robots needed for these parts but probably also reduces cost and increases speed across the entire line. Seems like the processes further down the line get easier once the underlying structure is more precise and consistent.

Also might allow them to spin up new factories in a smaller footprint at a lower cost.

I think we're all going to be really impressed by the margin and growth once this new process is implemented

Not only that... but could reduce service time spent on things like panel gaps and minor misalignment.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Stole your great side by side for Twitter. Hope that's okay

I saw. Now what am I supposed to do with this sternly worded letter I was preparing?

 

[larmor]

Thanks for this, Krugerrand. With respect, yes and no.

• The fact is Tesla currently sells 0.8% of the current auto market, right? The hope of most of the people in this forum is that Tesla can sell 10%-20%-30% of that market years from now. That's aspirational, not factual.
• The fact is most consumers are worried that EVs will run out of battery and leave them stranded, ignoring the fact there are many more power plugs in the world than gas stations. It's our hope that the majority can be convinced to trust EVs.
• The fact is that - as several have recently reiterated - Tesla's success is largely tied to the ability of a single point-of-failure, Elon Musk. Should anything happen to that one person, all bets are off. The fact is, that's a risky proposition by most measures of risk mitigation. It's our hope that Elon will stay healthy, sane, and engaged to drive Tesla to execute it's ambitious mission - not a 'given' by any stretch.

I'd suggest that Tesla's current market price is based way more on hope than fact. I think that's "normal" and fair game. You know I believe that too as I'm also a HODL investor. There are many irrational investors and they're part of the market too. "Smart" investors take that sentiment into account as well. As you say, the SP is reflective of us all.

I for one am hoping that Musk designates someone to 'take over' daily business and prouction operations, so that he can focus on engineering to make the car, fsd, what have you, better. Too bad tesla was not able to get Diess, for what its worth, it takes time and effort to call suppliers and make stuff happen, and would rather see Musk focus on other areas.

 

[StealthP3D]

But when I phone call Schwab instead of hold music, I get to listen to real time market updates read by someone who oozes old money elitism “the VIX rose in early morning trading”…. I can literally hear the cardigan tied neatly around his neck and shoulders.

Oh, please! Schwab innovated the discount brokerage model at a time when brokerages affiliated with old money elitism were raising trading commissions and had crazy high fees for everything from opening a new account to tying your shoes for you! Schwab was an early leader of bringing inexpensive on-line trading to the masses! You need a little history to understand this. And that voice you hear is intended to be a stable and calming influence while also being informative while you wait.

He also has a history of being an honest straight-shooter with no BS. So even though I don't feel any personal affinity for the guy, he's done a good job of providing me with exactly what I need at a very low price and with quality service when needed. Value, security, no BS.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wait what? My ticker must be broken it went up.

I for one am hoping that Musk designates someone to 'take over' daily business and prouction operations, so that he can focus on engineering to make the car, fsd, what have you, better. Too bad tesla was not able to get Diess, for what its worth, it takes time and effort to call suppliers and make stuff happen, and would rather see Musk focus on other areas.

Everyone thought I was crazy when I suggested he might be considering a move to Tesla after his internal move within VW. I had no idea I was actually a couple years too late. No wonder he and Elon are friendly.

 

[StealthP3D]

It should be noted, the patrol car was stopped to assist in an incident where the driver had...run into a power pole along side the roadway. The common denominator - vehicles, while moving, can on occasion hit things.

Yes, because humans are terrible drivers in the aggregate.

 

[BornToFly]

Krugerrand, discovering how great it is to be a dog, rather than a cat, when TSLA turns green.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1393258375291473923

 

[CorneliusXX]

Model 2 will use an LFP pack (per Bty Day slide deck). It's very likely that the entire pack will come from a supplier, the way the MiC Model 3 SR+ uses a CATL-provided LFP pack right now.

Tesla 4680 cell production ramp will not be a factor in scaling up Model 2 vehicle production.

I thought battery day showed LFP 4680s too.

Without cylindrical cells I'm guessing they'd presumably need to give up the structural pack? So CATL would need to move to cylindrical?

 

[Mengy]

I'm not an engineer but I think the two castings and structural pack reduces a lot of tiny but compounding misalignments, right?

Yes. The castings greatly reduce the number of frame parts which must be riveted / welded, thereby greatly reducing tolerance stacking. This equals better consistency and precision during assembly.

In other words, much better panel gaps.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

There's a lot of continued FUD out there, but this feels like one of those days where TSLA is pushed down in the pre-market against a macro tailwind and it snaps from -1% to +1% at the open.

Never tried to catch one of these, but it feels like today might be a decent opportunity. Throw in a market order for OTM calls at open for this Friday and set a sell order for +20%. Since I have zero dollars, perhaps I'll just watch and see what would've happened.

Edit at open: 5/21 $600c opened at $4.20(!) and quickly dipped down to $3.30.....now we sit at $4.85 7 minutes into the trading day. A sell order for $5.04(+20% from open) seems doable.

Edit again: 5/21 $600c sits at =$5.05 up 22% from the open.

You called this one well. Lots of FUD lately and I'm seeing people around me succumbing and selling their tsla stakes. Feels like a better and better opportunity to buy. For people dipping into margin I like straddles especially at these prices (straddles being the purchase of equal numbers of calls and puts at the same strike, preferably at the current price).