Can we just back up a minute to the numbers Ray tweeted (~44K production in Shanghai)?
While the various "China demand" stories on sales are interesting data points we should watch over time, production is the important number, not local sales. And 44K would be most impressive.
That would put a 220K+ production Q2 within reach, and a 400K first half. Maintaining just that run rate puts a floor of about 900K for the year -- without Austin or Berlin.
In the screenshot from Rob's video the other day below, he backs into quarterly numbers by trying to determine weekly production rate. His methodology gets to 38K in Shanghai for May, and 211K company-wide for the quarter. That's about what
@The Accountant had in his delivery estimate, too, if I remember (210K?). At least that production number may be pretty conservative, and perhaps the delivery one, too, if they don't build up much inventory (it's extremely low right now, about 8 days).
And Shanghai may ramp further in June, making 220K conservative, too, assuming Fremont at least maintains its course.
In any case, if Ray's numbers are even close, it just continues the validation of Tesla's acceleration up the S-curve of manufacturing prowess.