Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

So far this year I have made over $1.5m selling options (including my trades where I closed them out for a loss and rolled them because the stock moved against me too much). It has taken me 6 years to get to the point where I believe I won't lose money selling them anymore (the first few years were rough). The biggest power you have as an investor is selling covered calls against your shares ($1m of the 1.5 was CC, the rest selling margin secured Puts). I don't typically buy them because I just lose money. It is really easy to make money selling Puts if you have enough cash. My mother's IRA has over $2m in cash, and I have been making her around $20k/month to live off of selling very safe, way OTM monthly Puts secured by her cash. I have 40 530 strike Puts that I have sold for her expiring at different times over the next 30 days. As those get close to expiration, I either let them expire worthless, or I roll them another month out, maybe change the strike a little, and make her more spending money. At her age, I don't want to buy TSLA stock with her funds just in case.

Finally, a Master Penny Bandit among us.

Hoping examples like these will remove the stigma of talking about CC here from those who don't do it themselves, but tell others that it does not work

 

[Singuy]

Hmm, timing it’s release with P&D? is he going for “epic short burn pt 2”?

edit: omg just saw his other tweet.

Frankly when it comes to fsd, take whatever Elon says as a grain of salt. This is the "step change" everything is better beta that became an "alpha with major issues. "

 

[UltradoomY]

Finally, a Master Penny Bandit among us.

Hoping examples like these will remove the stigma of talking about CC here from those who don't do it themselves, but tell others that it does not work

Indeed options of all types have a place in any traders bag - investors should just HODL.
There is a difference but you can be both and do it well.
That is why we encourage (it's not my forum in any sense to say this) lots of different options discussions in "The Wheel" thread.
Cheers and happy Friday to all types of TSLA investors and traders!

 

[phantasms]

Down to "one week".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408356610624327685

Anyone else read this as FSD subscriptions immanent?

 

[StealthP3D]

We are reaching a level of FUD, where it is just too much even for CNBC anchors. If I'm not careful I'll start liking her...
PS: never mind the second part of the segment, that guy, once again, acts like a drunk uncle at the dinner table who starts talking incoherently about things unrelated to the conversation, but everyone remains polite.

I actually think the ol' Joe K. (pronounced "joke") really did take two or three shots a half hour before that segment. He's slurring his words. Or maybe he had a jolly late evening.

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyone else read this as FSD subscriptions immanent?

Yep.

Still!

 

[geometro]

Anyone else read this as FSD subscriptions immanent?

I still don’t understand how you get a subscription if you don’t have HW 3. Limits the audience to those that have bought in the last year.

 

[elasalle]

Indeed options of all types have a place in any traders bag - investors should just HODL.
There is a difference but you can be both and do it well.
That is why we encourage (it's not my forum in any sense to say this) lots of different options discussions in "The Wheel" thread.
Cheers and happy Friday to all types of TSLA investors and traders!

I don't see myself as a trader, not even stock picker - more like a stock Selector - only 1 stock
In order to manage/hedge my HODL, I use options - mostly LEAPS and sell CC's (also long term) against everything I own.

Wheel is great way to learn/manage options, but short term plays are not for me - keeps you on toes, lose sleep, thrill all in one. Needs great reaction time, and spikes like yesterday can put you in a funk.
Reading that thread seems a lot of folks doing great with that strategy. cheers!!

 

[UncaNed]

TSLA After-Hours Quotes​

Data last updated Jun 24, 2021 08:00 PM ET.
This page will resume updating on Jun 25, 2021 04:00 PM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$681.00 +1.18 (+0.17%)
After-Hours Volume	517,800
After-Hours High	$687.31 (05:21:14 PM)
After-Hours Low	$676 (04:30:11 PM)

Posts like this -just outboard of my usual trodden path of mindfulness- make me think deeper and widen my range of investing and trading knowledge. And I'm someone who really needs that.

Also, it looks like maybe Trend Trader's video was right.

 

[stealthyc]

Frankly when it comes to fsd, take whatever Elon says as a grain of salt. This is the "step change" everything is better beta that became an "alpha with major issues. "

In general I agree with you but I do suspect you are misrepresenting what he has said. I could certainly be wrong but I don't remember him saying he was driving a beta 9 version ever, just an alpha. And he has said that 9 in general is a step change not specifically alpha vs beta. Finally you misquoted "obvious issues" as "major issues" which are not the same thing.

All that said, I have no expectation of any imminent release based on anything Elon says, it will obviously just come in time when it is ready.

 

[Knightshade]

I still don’t understand how you get a subscription if you don’t have HW 3. Limits the audience to those that have bought in the last year.

April 2019 is when HW3 switchover was announced- so over 2 years now. (though there were a couple batches that missed the date)

The great majority, and obviously all going forward, of Teslas on the road now are at least HW3

 

[UncaNed]

I am waiting to sell covered calls for Jan 2023, 1500 strike, until they are around $110/contract. If the stock slowly rises after that, they will either expire worthless, or go into the money. If they go into the money, at that point I can sell my stock at 1500/share, or roll the contracts to a higher strike another year out. If the SP drops 30% again, I buy them back with a 50% or more profit, and wait until the stock comes up again to sell new covered calls. But don't fall in love with a trade - always be willing to admit you made a mistake and fix it. Don't expect to make the same amount every month. Some months you sell calls, some months you sell puts. Don't be greedy either. I could make my mom more money selling Puts with higher strikes, but I want to have a very low risk of assignment with her account because it isn't my money.

Wouldn't the ROI of buying and holding a leap be way, way better than only 50% (assuming you carefully roll it well before of expiration as needed, @stealthyc )?

Your example gives no hint of overall ROI (including the time-factor) relative to holding shares or leaps. Some posters tend to spackle over their losses or fail to compare different strategies honestly, which can require much meticulous effort to do honestly and rigorously.

 

[mongo]

I still don’t understand how you get a subscription if you don’t have HW 3. Limits the audience to those that have bought in the last year.

HW3 has shipped on new cars since Q2 2019. So 3/4 of 2019 (250K), all of 2020 production (500k), 2021 production (400k? so far). Plus retrofits. Well over a million cars (excluding regional variances).
https://electrek.co/2019/11/10/tesla-update-fo rks-features-for-model-3s-built-pre-post-april-2019/

 

[StealthP3D]

I still don’t understand how you get a subscription if you don’t have HW 3. Limits the audience to those that have bought in the last year.

Or the fall before that. Or the summer before that. Or the spring before that. Or this year. In other words, that's most of the fleet. On top of that, add almost everyone that purchased FSD after 2017 (we have two of those).

 

[stealthyc]

Wouldn't the ROI of buying and holding a leap be way, way better than only 50%?

Your example gives no hint of overall ROI (including the time-factor) relative to holding shares or leaps. Some posters tend to spackle over their losses or fail to compare different strategies honestly, which can require much meticulous effort to do honestly and rigorously.

The ROI of holding a leap that doesn't go ITM is 0%, which is certainly a possibility.

 

[ZachF]

Cmon seven hundo

 

[ZachF]

Everyone has their own opinion. I tend to view Q2 as a sacrificial quarter. The first half of the year has involved a lot of forward preparation that will pay off in the second half. I would be pushing what I could into Q3. Any personnel issues I would try to clear in Q2, any recalls, any super computer buying etc.

So I have very high expectations for Q3 & Q4. YMMV.

This is true, and since last year's Q2 was during the depths of COVID they could potentially dump a bunch of costs/charges while still having great YOY increases

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So you sell the morning peak at $696 and then buy at the bottom of the dip @ $672? Rinse repeat?

 

[Singuy]

In general I agree with you but I do suspect you are misrepresenting what he has said. I could certainly be wrong but I don't remember him saying he was driving a beta 9 version ever, just an alpha. And he has said that 9 in general is a step change not specifically alpha vs beta. Finally you misquoted "obvious issues" as "major issues" which are not the same thing.

All that said, I have no expectation of any imminent release based on anything Elon says, it will obviously just come in time when it is ready.

This is the first time he used the word "alpha". Everytime people asked him about fsd beta v9, he has never corrected them until today, unless he saw regression from current build, which again has never communicated it in such a fashion.

The truth is he gets the software, it detects an obvious issue, they throw it into training which takes 3 weeks, and Elon makes a prediction it'll be ready cause training will fix it. But then it doesn't fix it or another issue comes up, they train it again which again takes a few weeks and Elon tells you it's 2 weeks away "hopefully ".
Rinse and repeat for the past half a year.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today's 50 Day Tech chart at the Open: Upper-BB @ 672.83 (increase of $30 in 2 days)

Cheers!