Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

TBH, I find these various pieces of data from China suspicious.

That said, I believe it's likely that it was this twitter handle's earlier statements on the China number that Rob Maurer from TeslaDaily in the last few weeks went through and found the accuracy overall to be reasonable. For that reason, I am not yet totally ignoring this tweet.

Shut down and holiday accounts for a 16 percent production deficiency. So the number is not surprising. April's numbers sucked.

 

[Criscmt]

Nice day and a good after-hours pop after a long time. And predictable too. This AH pop happened many times in the past.

So, the move today of ~33 points was on light volume of ~30 million shares. Just the delta hedging need from market makers requires them to buy ~20 million shares per my calculations. This requires ~3-4x trading volume, and today's volume was definitely not enough to delta hedge their books.

So the weak (perhaps smart) market makers are buying to go home a bit flatter and a get a tad more sleep. This may continue another day before the 650 call buyers decide to book profits.

Either way, interesting week ahead.

Do you have any revised numbers on the shares needed by MMs for delta hedging the options expiring tomorrow, 06/25?

 

[StealthP3D]

TBH, I find these various pieces of data from China suspicious.

That said, I believe it's likely that it was this twitter handle's earlier statements on the China number that Rob Maurer from TeslaDaily in the last few weeks went through and found the accuracy overall to be reasonable. For that reason, I am not yet totally ignoring this tweet.

There is a difference between projecting sales figures after the month has ended and reporting news that sales are "locked" before the quarter has ended. And then refusing to define what "locked" means. Why would they "lock" sales with 20% of the month yet to go? I put zero credence in this.

Did they lock China sales and throw away the key?

 

[AudubonB]

What mean “China delivery rocked”?

 

[InTheShadows]

When that IV was tapping 80% there were some crazy opportunities at very deep strikes, in the sense of selling like a 2000 target strike for 100 bucks and so on. I love TSLA but 2000 wasn't that probable for ~Jan 2022. There is a very big difference between IV 80% and 55%. I'm pretty sure I won't bother with it at 55.

Yea HV and IV% are still low right now. When selling secured puts, I still sell down to IV 35 if the conditions are right on the right underlying. At the same time I generally avoid things with IV over 100. (if VIX is over 50, like last year, then that rule of mine gets broken.)

my eventual plan when I have amassed account values that I imagine @BornToFly has it to only sell puts on SPY and live off TSLA dividends and theta from deep otm covered calls.

 

[pz1975]

Are you still able to do this inside your TFSA? How did your Accountant's tax predictions work out? Was their a 'threshold' reached which triggered this?

Cheers!

I do all my investing in an investment account within my medical corporation. I have a TFSA but don’t use it much since it has an upper limit to contribute of course and I’d have to pay tax to get it from the Corp to the personal TFSA. I think that answer makes your other questions not important.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I agree. What makes Tesla unique in their respective industries is that the big decisions are presented and lobbied by the creators. The designers, engineers, production specialists, etc. And the physics and engineer CEO pulls the trigger. When bean counters have veto power over product development, you get GM ignition switch malfunctions and battery fires and glitchy touchscreens. No offense to accountants but sometimes the person that designed the product understands its intrinsic value more than the bottom line. This is coming from somebody that spent a 45 year career designing homes, not in accounting, so it's just my read.
There is a vision to developing and understanding things like the carbon wrapped motor that goes well beyond how it affects this quarters earnings report.

No urgent need to post this following comment, I'd just like to point out to everyone that Zach's CV is published on the Tesla.com website, here:

Zachary Kirkhorn | Tesla Investor Relations

Zachary Kirkhorn​

Zach is Master of Coin of Tesla and served as our Chief Financial Officer since March 2019. Previously, Zach served in various finance positions continuously since joining Tesla in March 2010, other than between August 2011 and June 2013 during which he attended business school, including most recently as Vice President, Finance, Financial Planning and Business Operations from December 2018 to March 2019. Zach holds dual B.S.E. degrees in economics and mechanical engineering and applied mechanics from the University of Pennsylvania and an M.B.A. from Harvard University.​

So Zach is not merely a bean counter; he also has a pocket protector PACKED FULL of sharp pencils...

Cheers!

P.S. All of Tesla's Corporate Officers and Directors have similar CV pages at Tesla.com

Corporate Governance | Tesla Investor Relations https://ir.tesla.com › corporate​

 

[MC3OZ]

TBH, I find these various pieces of data from China suspicious.

That said, I believe it's likely that it was this twitter handle's earlier statements on the China number that Rob Maurer from TeslaDaily in the last few weeks went through and found the accuracy overall to be reasonable. For that reason, I am not yet totally ignoring this tweet.

Overall world wide production and deliveries, are still what counts.

Remember VW ID4 sales in China were even more disappointing.

We can perhaps see Tesla gearing up to export higher volumes out of China.

I doubt that there is a significant Tesla specific issue in China, that is permanent, or significant.

We perhaps need to judge Tesla's sales in China in the context of overall industry sales, and maybe more cars were exported.

So even if the Twitter handle is right, I am not sure it is a big deal.

 

[SPadival]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408245766762602496

You really need to put some royalty free music on your videos

 

[capster]

I don’t post much as I’m newer and trying to learn the ropes on here. But, what about new investors that are willing to hold? I wasn’t able to afford my first Tesla until early 2020 and started to buy stock towards the end of the year once I was able to. I’ve been buying dips ever since. I’m nothing compared to big fish, but I’m trying and would honestly be upset to be left out of something I love. I have a preorder in for starlink and I have high speed DSL. Leaving out new investors like myself would paint a bad look I believe.

 

[Lessmog]

Am I missing something or is everybody a bit too excited about getting preference in buying Starlink?

Been giving some thought about the benefits to long term Tesla investors in case of a Starlink, or the whole of SpaceX for that matter, IPO. Doesn't really seem that important when you do the math.

I mean I came to Tesla via not being able to buy SpaceX so I'm all for getting some preference but I just can't see them valuing the IPO in a way that it pops 50%-100% on opening day. Remember once an opening price at the exchange is set anyone can buy. So it's the difference between that opening price and the IPO price that is the value.

Also, in all likelihood you will not get some unlimited amount of shares just because you owned Tesla shares a long time. In the end I think it'll be high if they allow the amount you can invest to even 20% of your Tesla longterm value. More likely 10%, but lets go with 20%

So lets say it opens up 20% from IPO price (where anyone could then buy) and Tesla investors were allowed to buy in at regular IPO price for an amount of say 20% of their long term Tesla shares valuation. Even if ALL your shares were longterm (however that will eventually be decided) you would in this example see a benefit of 4% extra profit from your Tesla holdings.

I mean that would obviously be nice but Tesla itself can go up, or down, 4% on any random Tuesday.

In the end it seems to be more of a symbolic thing than something that will give any Tesla long term holder any significant economical advantage.

For Tesla (and Starlink) I think the sky is the limit.
For SpaceX it is not.

 

[Wicket]

Hey Party People !!!! Teslaquilla empty decanters in STooooCCk!! Tesla Decanter

Pump! Pump! Pump!

 

[SpaceCash]

Hey Party People !!!! Teslaquilla empty decanters in STooooCCk!! Tesla Decanter

Pump! Pump! Pump!

'Twas mentioned before and I bought 4

 

[aubreymcfato]

Warning, Electrek article, but important if true:

Tesla confirms plan to open Supercharger network to other automakers next year

Tesla has confirmed to Norwegian officials that it plans to open the Supercharger network to other automakers by September 2022....

electrek.co

Do we have more reliable or primary sources, like some Norwegian outlet?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

TL0 is uh, well this is optimistic.

 

[EVMeister]

Premarket looking @SpaceCash AF.

 

[Tslynk67]

So far this year I have made over $1.5m selling options (including my trades where I closed them out for a loss and rolled them because the stock moved against me too much). It has taken me 6 years to get to the point where I believe I won't lose money selling them anymore (the first few years were rough). The biggest power you have as an investor is selling covered calls against your shares ($1m of the 1.5 was CC, the rest selling margin secured Puts). I don't typically buy them because I just lose money. It is really easy to make money selling Puts if you have enough cash. My mother's IRA has over $2m in cash, and I have been making her around $20k/month to live off of selling very safe, way OTM monthly Puts secured by her cash. I have 40 530 strike Puts that I have sold for her expiring at different times over the next 30 days. As those get close to expiration, I either let them expire worthless, or I roll them another month out, maybe change the strike a little, and make her more spending money. At her age, I don't want to buy TSLA stock with her funds just in case.

Anyone not leveraging their capital by selling puts and/or calls is just missing out on free money

 

[SpaceCash]

What is your Broker's fee per Contract? With my Broker's $20 per contract fee, the above strategy would be quite costly (especially while learning Options trading). Eg: those 40 Puts alone would represent around 800/mth in fees, but it sounds like that's not the majority of your activity.

How do you manage the fees? What's your "win/loss" ratio? What does it need to be to break even? TIA

Cheers!

Etrade charges me 5 bucks per contract trade (meaning no matter whether you buy 1 or 10 or 100 contracts they charge 5 bucks).
They price-matched Robinhood and charge nothing for stock trades (One of their reps told me they basically F'd up in 2020 by doing this and a few other things).

Truth be told, your broker is godawful.

 

[Tslynk67]

Um....beer drinker

I have to admit that beer is my glass of tea too!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Down to "one week".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408356610624327685