Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

Overall world wide production and deliveries, are still what counts.

Remember VW ID4 sales in China were even more disappointing.

We can perhaps see Tesla gearing up to export higher volumes out of China.

I doubt that there is a significant Tesla specific issue in China, that is permanent, or significant.

We perhaps need to judge Tesla's sales in China in the context of overall industry sales, and maybe more cars were exported.

So even if the Twitter handle is right, I am not sure it is a big deal.

I think your assessment is spot on.
China Sales in Q2 have been strong in my opinion. If we take this rumor to be true, Tesla sold 11,671, 21,936 and 24,600 vehicles locally in China in Apr, May and June, respectively. This while exporting 25,701.

They are down 16% in Q2 locally but up 6.5% including Exports when compared to the preceding Qtr. Not too shabby.
So we see that in June Tesla likely shipped out 24,600 units but my guess is that they produced about 33,000 units. This means that approx. 8,000 units are staged for exports in July.
Why would Tesla do this? Prices for the vehicles are higher in export markets than in China. Why not feed demand where margins are higher?

Edited to add: We need to start looking at China as we do Fremont. It is not just a local production facility but feeds multiple markets. If we start focusing too much on China local sales we fall for the "sales are down in Norway" FUD.

2nd Edit: June numbers are estimates based on Twitter's China Tesla Analyst's rumor of 16% down for China local sales.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Warning, Electrek article, but important if true:

Tesla confirms plan to open Supercharger network to other automakers next year

Tesla has confirmed to Norwegian officials that it plans to open the Supercharger network to other automakers by September 2022....

electrek.co

Do we have more reliable or primary sources, like some Norwegian outlet?

Rob Maurer discussed (and dismissed) the idea in yesterday's Tesla Daily on Youtube. Norway has provided some Gov't funding to build a small handful of SC locations (we think it's 2 sites). Norway thinks if the Gov't is providing funding, those sites should be open to the public.

From this 'fuelish-freddie' concludes (wrongly) that Tesla will open up all SC's everywhere to everyone. What a click-bait-pocalypse of a head-in-***-line.

People need to stop linking to Electrick. His judgement can not be trusted.

 

[redan]

2021 Tesla Model S Plaid: Feel the Force—0-60 in 2 Seconds

Though largely unchanged on the outside, the new Model S is a technical tour de force: the fastest, hardest-accelerating, most aero-efficient production sedan ever. Dan Neil takes a road trip.

www.wsj.com

Highlights:

And this car. Marone. While much has been made of the Plaid’s straight-line acceleration—0-60 mph in 1.99 seconds and ¼-mile time of 9.2 seconds, both records for a series-production automobile—not enough has been said about its lateral acceleration, its race car-like roadholding and mechanical grip. Forget planking. Route 299 is the core workout you’ve been looking for.

...

Keeping score? The Plaid lays claim to being the quickest/fastest production sedan in the history of the ¼ mile; the hardest accelerating; the most aero efficient; with the fastest charging of any production EV. At a 250 kW Supercharger, the Plaid can recharge at a rate equivalent to 1,000 miles of range per hour—or 187 miles gained in 15 minutes. The Plaid also has up to 10 teraflops of processing power backing its 17-inch center widescreen and other displays.


And it answers some questions:


For all its invention, the Plaid also consolidates past gains, almost as if Tesla were—gulp—a real car company. While the star of the latest Battery Day was the new 4860 cell, the flagship sedan will continue using an upgraded version of the 18650 batteries it’s had since Job 1. While the cooling systems are vastly better, the pack is still a “bag of potatoes,” one engineer said—meaning the cells themselves don’t carry any structural load, as they will in later Tesla designs.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Today's 50 Day Tech chart at the Open: Upper-BB @ 672.83 (increase of $30 in 2 days)

View attachment 677552

Cheers!

Bollinger bands remind me of the intestinal tract - Right after the tight squeeze comes all the action!
Could take us to around 901... and then to the Moon!

 

[stealthyc]

This is the first time he used the word "alpha". Everytime people asked him about fsd beta v9, he has never corrected them until today, unless he saw regression from current build, which again has never communicated it in such a fashion.

The truth is he gets the software, it detects an obvious issue, they throw it into training which takes 3 weeks, and Elon makes a prediction it'll be ready cause training will fix it. But then it doesn't fix it or another issue comes up, they train it again which again takes a few weeks and Elon tells you it's 2 weeks away "hopefully ".
Rinse and repeat for the past half a year.

I'm not much of a twitter user so I don't know how to search for things, but he has said in the past he drives an alpha version. Also he has talked many times about various issues that need to be fixed just like he did this time. But i'm not defending his inability to accurately predict timelines.

 

[jeewee3000]

Wouldn't the ROI of buying and holding a leap be way, way better than only 50% (assuming you carefully roll it well before of expiration as needed, @stealthyc )?

Your example gives no hint of overall ROI (including the time-factor) relative to holding shares or leaps. Some posters tend to spackle over their losses or fail to compare different strategies honestly, which can require much meticulous effort to do honestly and rigorously.

On a bull run, yes. Stock flatlining or dropping, no.

I dabble in the Wheel thread/options, but nothing compared to the Big Fish. The first thing I've learnt is that with options, timing is everything. Timing meaning both when to open/close positions and at what prices/volatility.

Buy and hodl stocks is way less riskier and - besides unlikely Black Swann events - pretty much guarantees return after X amount of years. Adding shares on a "dip" or "peak" will only change the outcome in the year 2035 by a relatively low percentage, since these dips/peaks are pretty much noise in the long run.

With options, you could get a higher return, but there's a lot more IFs. And if you're not managing your bankroll well, you could lose all your gains and then some. Risk management is key, therefore everyone has their own 'style' in how agressive they are. (read a couple of weeks of the Wheel thread and you get to know the nuances in each persons trading)

That said, it's not as easy as "just buy LEAPS and keep rolling 'em". This is only effective when starting at a low SP, at a time of low IV. I added LEAPS when we were in the 500's a month ago, but once over 700 I'll think twice before adding to that position. When will I sell my LEAPS? Some around ATH, and some after that.

I'm digressing. My main point is (for those new to options hearing tales of low hanging fruit): it's not as easy as some make it sound. Handling options with relatively low risk requires "orders of magnitude" more time and effort than buying shares whenever you can and holding them for years.

I do both, but it's like 85% shares and 15% options. Whenever the options grow too large (first world problems) I convert some to shares/dry powder to de-leverage.

 

[Buckminster]

Brussels bans all ICE cars from 2035, and all diesels from 2030:
Brussel kondigt "einde van diesel- en benzinetijdperk" aan, diesel- en benzinemotoren tegen 2035 niet meer welkom

Brussel kondigt "einde van diesel- en benzinetijdperk" aan, diesel- en benzinemotoren tegen 2035 niet meer welkom

De Brusselse regering wil de overgang naar een schoner wagenpark in Brussel zo vergemakkelijken.

www.vrt.be

For those like me that got overly excited - this is the city of Brussels rather than the EU. They should do something about that.

 

[Singuy]

I think your assessment is spot on.
China Sales in Q2 have been strong in my opinion. If we take this rumor to be true, Tesla sold 11,671, 21,936 and 24,600 vehicles locally in China in Apr, May and June, respectively. This while exporting 25,701.

They are down 16% in Q2 locally but up 6.5% including Exports when compared to the preceding Qtr. Not too shabby.
So we see that in June Tesla likely shipped out 24,600 units but my guess is that they produced about 33,000 units. This means that approx. 8,000 units are staged for exports in July.
Why would Tesla do this? Prices for the vehicles are higher in export markets than in China. Why not feed demand where margins are higher?

View attachment 677548

Edited to add: We need to start looking at China as we do Fremont. It is not just a local production facility but feeds multiple markets. If we start focusing too much on China local sales we fall for the "sales are down in Norway" FUD.

2nd Edit: June numbers are estimates based on Twitter's China Tesla Analyst's rumor of 16% down for China local sales.

Do you have any updates in ship loading time?

 

[-=buzz=-]

This is the first time he used the word "alpha". Everytime people asked him about fsd beta v9, he has never corrected them until today, unless he saw regression from current build, which again has never communicated it in such a fashion.

The truth is he gets the software, it detects an obvious issue, they throw it into training which takes 3 weeks, and Elon makes a prediction it'll be ready cause training will fix it. But then it doesn't fix it or another issue comes up, they train it again which again takes a few weeks and Elon tells you it's 2 weeks away "hopefully ".
Rinse and repeat for the past half a year.

Does it really have to be this complicated and speculative?

The unreleased/internal v9-dev-version is what he calls 'alpha'. Once that version is stable and 'good enough' it will be released as v9-beta to the outside testers and maybe immediately or slightly delayed made available through The Button...

This is just normal software development staging nomenclature and IMHO the most likely language used by Musk...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Rob Maurer discussed (and dismissed) the idea in yesterday's Tesla Daily on Youtube. Norway has provided some Gov't funding to build a small handful of SC locations (we think it's 2 sites). Norway thinks if the Gov't is providing funding, those sites should be open to the public.

From this 'fuelish-freddie' concludes (wrongly) that Tesla will open up all SC's everywhere to everyone. What a click-bait-pocalypse of a head-in-***-line.

People need to stop linking to Electrick. His judgement can not be trusted.

I also don't think we can rule out the possibility even at these few stations that what Tesla will build could be say 12 Tesla chargers and 6 open for all standard chargers. Or any combination of numbers while still keeping some chargers as Tesla only.

Let's say you can get subsidized for the cost of getting electricity to the site and build a minimum of X chargers for all to use. If so Tesla could decide to do this and then add Y number of their proprietary chargers as well making that installation much cheaper than normal.

 

[redan]

Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey agree to talk about bitcoin at an event in July

Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey have agreed to discuss bitcoin with each other at an event about the cryptocurrency.

www.cnbc.com

Tech billionaires Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey have agreed to discuss bitcoin with each other at an event in July.

...

The event will take place on July 21, according to its website, “offering a live experience and a library of content to the investor community, enabling a more informed discussion about the role Bitcoin can serve for institutions across the globe.”

 

[The Accountant]

Do you have any updates in ship loading time?

Nothing new. I'll post my last update below.
I have 9 ships departing Shanghai but I am certain there were more. Shanghai does not have the level of transparancy that we see with Fremont.
I have loading times increasing 80% in Q2 for Shaghai but we know their exports are up 170% vs Q1. So we are definitely missing ships.

 

[2daMoon]

I also don't think we can rule out the possibility even at these few stations that what Tesla will build could be say 12 Tesla chargers and 6 open for all standard chargers. Or any combination of numbers while still keeping some chargers as Tesla only.

Let's say you can get subsidized for the cost of getting electricity to the site and build a minimum of X chargers for all to use. If so Tesla could decide to do this and then add Y number of their proprietary chargers as well making that installation much cheaper than normal.

Another aspect this brings into focus is how this opportunity could be an effective pilot program for Tesla to fine-tune their potential as an energy provider for many, many vehicle brands.

Now is the perfect time for this as SC expansion continues to ramp up. If, in the process, all new SC locations are designed to integrate payment and charging for these other users this will be like Tesla becoming ubiquitous. They will become the "premium" charging experience because they are reliable, easy to transact with, and many sites will include attractions, such as cafes, entertainment, etc.

Think of the growth and profits impact of being thought of as the Shell, Exxon, Chevron, Circle K, or 7-Eleven (insert your local equal) of charging five or ten years down the line?

"Hey bud, can you tell me where the nearest Tesla station is?"

 

[Todd Burch]

So MMs are doing their normal morning push to get TSLA back in line (aiming for $650?) but it's being resisted so far. Wonder if they'll try again later in the day when volume tapers off?

 

[SOULPEDL]

The battle looks so narrow minded today.
But still I don't understand the diff between open interest and volume. The legends don't help at all.
Maybe I'm missing the bigger picture and need clarity on how these are so different and so quickly.

 

[dl003]

So you sell the morning peak at $696 and then buy at the bottom of the dip @ $672? Rinse repeat?

Like shooting fish in a Plaid Model S trying to beat a 'ring record.

 

[saniflash]

The battle looks so narrow minded today.
But still I don't understand the diff between open interest and volume. The legends don't help at all.
Maybe I'm missing the bigger picture and need clarity on how these are so different and so quickly.

View attachment 677579

volume = how many contracts are traded on a day
open interest = how many contracts are open

volume does not allow for any inference of OI because volume increases if a contract is opened or closed, i.e. you don't know the net balance

 

[lascavarian]

Two recommendations from Youtube if not mentioned before. Dr Know it all has posted his second post on Karpathy's presentation. He knows a bit about AI and NN design and his comments are interesting. He seems to feel that they have developed a workable structure in both SW and HW to be significantly ahead of other competitors. Very bullish but this is not immediate as he sees it. Thinks the final success (FSD general release) may be a couple years out (listen at the end near 38 minutes).

Next is Chicken Genius and StarLink. It is quick. He sees the IPO a few years out but the date of record may be more current.

 

[InTheShadows]

The battle looks so narrow minded today.
But still I don't understand the diff between open interest and volume. The legends don't help at all.
Maybe I'm missing the bigger picture and need clarity on how these are so different and so quickly.

View attachment 677579

Open interest is all open contracts. They could have been opened months or even years ago for certain expirations. Volume is the number of contracts traded today only.
For example the Jan 2023 1000 strike leap has an open interest of 10233, and volume might be 50 for the day.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I also don't think we can rule out the possibility even at these few stations that what Tesla will build could be say 12 Tesla chargers and 6 open for all standard chargers. Or any combination of numbers while still keeping some chargers as Tesla only.

Yes, that is exactly what Tesla is doing with the new SC location in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada. Tesla is receiving approx. $30K per SC head from National Resources Canada (NRCAN). In return, Tesla will add three Level-3 fast chargers open to the Public in addition to the 8 v3 SC's planned.

Total grant is about half a million bucks per site. Tesla plans to build out a new Northern tier SC route (7 new v3 SC sites along the Yellowhead Hwy 16 from Prince George, BC to Saskatoon, SK). This will make electric tourism practical for the first time, and drive much economic activity. Eminently reasonable project.

Jasper Tesla charging proposal | TMC​

BTW, NRCAN is granting between $40-50K per charger to hundreds of charging infrastructure providers in this Canada-wide fast charger initiative.

Cheers!

P.S. About 10.2M chairs swapped seats by 10:30 ET