Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

nativewolf · Jul 14, 2021

StealthP3D said:
Ford doesn't deserve kudos when all they are doing is fighting for their survival. They are selling as many gas vehicles as they possibly can while scrambling to learn how to make EV's without selling so many they go bankrupt. They are not sure how this all plays out but they are taking the only path that might preserve them as a going concern into the 2030's. They would not be in this predicament were it not for Tesla so the kudos go to those innovating and forcing the change, Tesla. Ford is just hanging on for dear life.

@Knightshade expressed it best in a long post this morning, pages back. Probably all the legacy auto makers are screwed. Probably. However, it is interesting to see Ford of all of them moving faster. KS correctly pointed out that Ford themselves had not built battery factories but they have gigafactory sort of relationships with SK to build 2 and I think are on the verge of launching more. The SK factory in SC is well underway I think. However, the Mach-e is getting the press and attention that VW hoped for the id4 (which is a dog). I'm not sure that anyone would have predicted that, it is getting press and attention that the Bolt never had, they had a waiting list even.

Don't get me wrong, Tesla is the only reason any legacy company is doing anything. I can't say why but I know that Ford was look strongly at EVs in 2007. By 2008 they had to mortgage everything to stay afloat and then the Bush admin torched them by bailing out GM. IF GM had stayed bankrupt Ford would have soared post 2009. As it was GM had a relative cake walk.

At this point you could not ask much more from the CEO and leadership team of Ford. Also, yes they will continue to sell lots of ICEs. No one, not even Tesla, has enough batteries to build appreciable numbers of cars this year. Next year will be even worse, I think. Huge demand for EVs and battery plants will be so constrained. Refined products are going to be tight as well- next year could see all manner of battery challenges. So, ICE sales will still be high next year. 2024-5...will be interesting. I think Tesla could be heading for a huge percent of total sales in the EU and NA markets by 2025. Then you will see GM and chrysler really fighting for dear life. I expect the electric f150 and the huge stake in Rivian to save Ford.

They might not make it. I don't see products on GM's product list that are compelling in 2023 and I think 2022/ 2023 is the earliest they can really launch in any scale. GM's association with lordstown and nikola reeks of poor management and governance. Ford did due diligence and invested in Rivian, GM picked Nikola and lordstown- both reeked of fraud and lack of substance. Reeked.

So yeah- I think you could give Ford some credit at this point. They backed Rivian, they got a partner to build them 2 battery factories, they launched a car that is getting amazing publicity, and they got Biden to promote the F150 and have a huge waiting list for it. Objectively, the best of the legacy auto makers. Are they still a legacy firm, yes. Is the car built around a computer, no. Long way to go, yes. Will they make it?

insaneoctane · Jul 14, 2021

Slow day, after hours....
Looking at what countries NEED Tesla for the mission:

Article: Just 25 'mega-cities' produce 52 per cent of the world's urban greenhouse gas emissions — and 23 of them are in China

Wow. 52% of world's pollution coming from only 25 cities....I compiled that data of top 75 cities by country and took into consideration population sizes (to be fair)...

Country	Sum of Pollution, Megatons of CO2	% of pollution	Sum of Population	Tons CO2/capita
China	2,565.9	66.12%	263,071,354	9.8
US	177.8	4.58%	18,644,290	9.5
Russia	154.6	3.98%	18,097,557	8.5
Germany	125.5	3.23%	6,774,374	18.5
Japan	106.8	2.75%	60,200,420	1.8
SouthAfrica	95.1	2.45%	16,733,912	5.7
Philippines	49.5	1.27%	14,158,573	3.5
Thailand	49.2	1.27%	10,722,815	4.6
UAE	48.3	1.24%	2,921,376	16.5
Korea	48.1	1.24%	9,967,677	4.8
Turkey	47.5	1.22%	15,415,197	3.1
Indonesia	43.9	1.13%	10,915,364	4.0
India	41.9	1.08%	31,902,674	1.3
Singapore	40.4	1.04%	5,991,801	6.7
Australia	36.3	0.94%	2,067,333	17.6
UnitedKingdom	33.6	0.87%	9,425,622	3.6
Venezuela	31.8	0.82%	2,945,858	10.8
Mexico	30.7	0.79%	21,918,936	1.4
Nigeria	29.3	0.76%	14,862,111	2.0
Brazil	25.0	0.64%	22,237,472	1.1
Vietnam	22.4	0.58%	4,874,982	4.6
Italy	21.9	0.56%	1,795,235	12.2
Chile	20.0	0.52%	6,811,595	2.9
Canada	18.1	0.47%	6,254,571	2.9
Netherlands	17.5	0.45%	1,012,007	17.3
Grand Total	3,880.8	100.00%	579,723,106	6.7

It's pretty staggering to see how concentrated these results are. I wanted to see it grouped by Country and then needed to see population to be fair. Just thought I'd share. Good thing we've got a Giga in Shanghai !!!

Here's with the cities visible:
Stand out cities for pollution per capita: Handan, China @ 70.7 and Frankfurt, Germany @ 58.3 Tons/capita...

Row Labels	Sum of Pollution	% of pollution	Sum of Population	Tons CO2/capita
China	2,565.9	66.12%	263,071,354	9.8
Beijing	132.6	3.42%	20,896,820	6.3
Changchun	42.6	1.10%	4,520,695	9.4
Changsha	24.6	0.63%	4,694,722	5.2
Chengdu	54.5	1.40%	9,305,116	5.9
Chongqing	80.6	2.08%	16,382,376	4.9
Dalian	142.5	3.67%	5,775,938	24.7
Guangzhou	71.0	1.83%	13,635,397	5.2
Guiyang	42.1	1.08%	3,407,463	12.4
Handan	199.7	5.15%	2,824,345	70.7
Hangzhou	61.4	1.58%	7,845,501	7.8
Harbin	30.8	0.79%	5,000,000	6.2
Hefei	18.8	0.48%	4,371,005	4.3
Hohhot	23.5	0.60%	2,239,344	10.5
Hong Kong	55.9	1.44%	7,598,189	7.4
Huizhou	68.7	1.77%	2,605,871	26.4
Jiaxing	33.9	0.87%	1,318,418	25.7
Jinan	38.5	0.99%	8,700,000	4.4
Kaohsiung	63.6	1.64%	2,773,000	22.9
Kunming	63.0	1.62%	4,550,831	13.8
Lanzhou	29.9	0.77%	3,153,808	9.5
Nanchang	25.2	0.65%	3,709,958	6.8
Nanjing	47.9	1.24%	9,143,980	5.2
Nanning	20.9	0.54%	3,974,322	5.3
Qingdao	93.6	2.41%	5,742,486	16.3
Shanghai	187.9	4.84%	27,795,702	6.8
Shenzhen	62.9	1.62%	12,591,696	5.0
Shijiazhuang	67.8	1.75%	4,199,392	16.1
Suzhou	151.8	3.91%	7,427,096	20.4
Taiyuan	26.7	0.69%	3,976,000	6.7
Tianjin	125.9	3.24%	13,794,450	9.1
Urumqi	75.3	1.94%	4,543,684	16.6
Wuhan	110.9	2.86%	8,473,405	13.1
Wuxi	76.9	1.98%	3,315,113	23.2
Xi'an	28.2	0.73%	8,274,651	3.4
Yinchuan	55.5	1.43%	1,626,584	34.1
Zhengzhou	66.2	1.70%	5,510,341	12.0
Shenyang	64.1	1.65%	7,373,655	8.7
US	177.8	4.58%	18,644,290	9.5
Chicago	31.5	0.81%	2,679,080	11.8
Houston	33.4	0.86%	2,323,660	14.4
Los Angeles	26.6	0.68%	3,983,540	6.7
New York City	51.3	1.32%	8,230,290	6.2
San Diego	35.0	0.90%	1,427,720	24.5
Russia	154.6	3.98%	18,097,557	8.5
Moscow	112.5	2.90%	12,593,252	8.9
Saint Petersburg	42.1	1.08%	5,504,305	7.6
Germany	125.5	3.23%	6,774,374	18.5
Berlin	27.5	0.71%	3,566,791	7.7
Frankfurt	45.7	1.18%	784,780	58.3
Hamburg	19.5	0.50%	1,788,995	10.9
Stuttgart	32.8	0.85%	633,808	51.8
Japan	106.8	2.75%	60,200,420	1.8
Osaka	19.8	0.51%	19,110,616	1.0
Tokyo	66.1	1.70%	37,339,804	1.8
Yokohama	21.0	0.54%	3,750,000	5.6
SouthAfrica	95.1	2.45%	16,733,912	5.7
Cape Town	21.5	0.55%	4,709,990	4.6
Durban	22.7	0.58%	3,176,254	7.1
Johannesburg	24.7	0.64%	5,926,668	4.2
Tshwane	26.1	0.67%	2,921,000	8.9
Philippines	49.5	1.27%	14,158,573	3.5
Manilla	49.5	1.27%	14,158,573	3.5
Thailand	49.2	1.27%	10,722,815	4.6
Bangkok	49.2	1.27%	10,722,815	4.6
UAE	48.3	1.24%	2,921,376	16.5
Dubai	48.3	1.24%	2,921,376	16.5
Korea	48.1	1.24%	9,967,677	4.8
Seoul	48.1	1.24%	9,967,677	4.8
Turkey	47.5	1.22%	15,415,197	3.1
Istanbul	47.5	1.22%	15,415,197	3.1
Indonesia	43.9	1.13%	10,915,364	4.0
Jakarta	43.9	1.13%	10,915,364	4.0
India	41.9	1.08%	31,902,674	1.3
Chennai	19.3	0.50%	11,235,018	1.7
Mumbai	22.6	0.58%	20,667,656	1.1
Singapore	40.4	1.04%	5,991,801	6.7
Singapore	40.4	1.04%	5,991,801	6.7
Australia	36.3	0.94%	2,067,333	17.6
Perth	36.3	0.94%	2,067,333	17.6
UnitedKingdom	33.6	0.87%	9,425,622	3.6
London	33.6	0.87%	9,425,622	3.6
Venezuela	31.8	0.82%	2,945,858	10.8
Caracas	31.8	0.82%	2,945,858	10.8
Mexico	30.7	0.79%	21,918,936	1.4
Mexico City	30.7	0.79%	21,918,936	1.4
Nigeria	29.3	0.76%	14,862,111	2.0
Lagos	29.3	0.76%	14,862,111	2.0
Brazil	25.0	0.64%	22,237,472	1.1
Sao Paulo	25.0	0.64%	22,237,472	1.1
Vietnam	22.4	0.58%	4,874,982	4.6
Hanoi	22.4	0.58%	4,874,982	4.6
Italy	21.9	0.56%	1,795,235	12.2
Torino	21.9	0.56%	1,795,235	12.2
Chile	20.0	0.52%	6,811,595	2.9
Santiago	20.0	0.52%	6,811,595	2.9
Canada	18.1	0.47%	6,254,571	2.9
Toronto	18.1	0.47%	6,254,571	2.9
Netherlands	17.5	0.45%	1,012,007	17.3
Rotterdam	17.5	0.45%	1,012,007	17.3
Grand Total	3,880.8	100.00%	579,723,106	6.7

edit: fixed error in pivot table

MABMAB · Jul 14, 2021

Pleasant surprise whilst on an airplane museum tour, none of them noticed the modern electric except for one grandchild along for the ride

lnb2g · Jul 14, 2021

Mengy said:
I try not to buy on margins, BUT if we drop a good chunk over the next few days I might have to use margin for some short term gains, because I feel the run up to Q2 numbers should take us up over 700 at least. Q2 was just too good for the stock to stay under 700 in the near term, in my opinion.

Don’t forget Btc. Im really worried about Btc for er

keydiver · Jul 14, 2021

phantasms said:
Yeah I was wondering what was up with that. For sure a camouflage covered car is going to attract 1000X more attention than if the car didn't have camouflage on it.

They should have just removed the Tesla emblems and put on "Civic" and "Type R" emblems. Probably would have attracted less attention.

PeterJA · Jul 14, 2021

nativewolf said:
...Will [Ford] make it?

My guess is no. Model Y will destroy Mockee sales. Cybertruck will destroy Lightening and Rivian. FSD will destroy competitors in general, including the ICE cash cows.

Years ago, I posted an interview with Ford's head of "electrification." He gave lots of lip service to EVs, but when asked if Ford planned a flagship car (like Model S) to showcase all the advantages of electric, he dodged the question, which meant no.

Ford lacked the vision and balls to see what was coming and move in time. They dithered too long. Now it's too late to catch Tesla, although even if they started sooner they couldn't have seen Cybertruck and FSD coming, because nobody could.

Discoducky · Jul 14, 2021

nativewolf said:
@Knightshade expressed it best in a long post this morning, pages back. Probably all the legacy auto makers are screwed. Probably. However, it is interesting to see Ford of all of them moving faster. KS correctly pointed out that Ford themselves had not built battery factories but they have gigafactory sort of relationships with SK to build 2 and I think are on the verge of launching more. The SK factory in SC is well underway I think. However, the Mach-e is getting the press and attention that VW hoped for the id4 (which is a dog). I'm not sure that anyone would have predicted that, it is getting press and attention that the Bolt never had, they had a waiting list even.

Don't get me wrong, Tesla is the only reason any legacy company is doing anything. I can't say why but I know that Ford was look strongly at EVs in 2007. By 2008 they had to mortgage everything to stay afloat and then the Bush admin torched them by bailing out GM. IF GM had stayed bankrupt Ford would have soared post 2009. As it was GM had a relative cake walk.

At this point you could not ask much more from the CEO and leadership team of Ford. Also, yes they will continue to sell lots of ICEs. No one, not even Tesla, has enough batteries to build appreciable numbers of cars this year. Next year will be even worse, I think. Huge demand for EVs and battery plants will be so constrained. Refined products are going to be tight as well- next year could see all manner of battery challenges. So, ICE sales will still be high next year. 2024-5...will be interesting. I think Tesla could be heading for a huge percent of total sales in the EU and NA markets by 2025. Then you will see GM and chrysler really fighting for dear life. I expect the electric f150 and the huge stake in Rivian to save Ford.

They might not make it. I don't see products on GM's product list that are compelling in 2023 and I think 2022/ 2023 is the earliest they can really launch in any scale. GM's association with lordstown and nikola reeks of poor management and governance. Ford did due diligence and invested in Rivian, GM picked Nikola and lordstown- both reeked of fraud and lack of substance. Reeked.

So yeah- I think you could give Ford some credit at this point. They backed Rivian, they got a partner to build them 2 battery factories, they launched a car that is getting amazing publicity, and they got Biden to promote the F150 and have a huge waiting list for it. Objectively, the best of the legacy auto makers. Are they still a legacy firm, yes. Is the car built around a computer, no. Long way to go, yes. Will they make it?

Hmm, will they make it? No, but it will take a bunch of years to realize it, they'll most likely have to cut much of their portfolio to their highest profit and lowest cost of development products, they'll most likely have to either merge with others to stay afloat or raise capital at an absurdly high cost, they'll most likely need to sell off a bunch of assets and the horror is....they'll run out of advertising money someday and have to rely on their actual user experience of their products to keep their company.

Can any traditional car company transition to only making BEVs? No, it just isn't possible with traditional biz planning.

Can they adopt non-traditional biz planning? No, not when the highest folks still are in it for the money as opposed to the betterment of humanity. We've already passed those crossroads as nations, states, counties and cities realize it is cheaper to support sustainability now than to fight it. Money is about to pour into sustainability around the globe faster than it ever has before.

Maybe traditional car companies will get enough money from government to stay afloat? Maybe, but that feels like true gambling to me.

MXWing · Jul 14, 2021

Bolt recall for spontaneous combustion.

NHTSA Issues Chevy Bolt Spontaneous Combustion Warning

Affected Bolt owners should park their cars outside and away from buildings

jalopnik.com

GM probably green tomorrow.

tesla would be retesting 450 - presplit if this happened to us.

StealthP3D · Jul 14, 2021

Nocturnal said:
Now imagine what happens if we get a $7500-$10k EV credit.

Ummm...Tesla sells the same number of cars they would have anyway?

My Cybertruck will effectively cost 10% less? I don't need the savings.

Prices for key battery raw materials doubles?

I would rather see the government subsidize charging infrastructure, both public and residential (including generation and distribution) with ALL the EV incentive money. With enough convenient fast charging and 50 amp charging circuits in every home and apartment parking space, people will buy more standard range models and be able to tow long-distances conveniently without huge battery packs. This will make the raw materials for batteries support more vehicles (displacing more ICE) and facilitate more renewable energy generation.

This battle of reducing transport pollution is more a matter of infrastructure development: cleaner generation, more flexible distribution and places to charge wherever you look. The vehicles will take care of themselves because they will be cheaper to own than inferior gas vehicles.

MrMoo · Jul 14, 2021

StealthP3D said:
Ummm...Tesla sells the same number of cars they would have anyway?

My Cybertruck will effectively cost 10% less? I don't need the savings.

Prices for key battery raw materials doubles?

I would rather see the government subsidize charging infrastructure, both public and residential (including generation and distribution) with ALL the EV incentive money. With enough convenient fast charging and 50 amp charging circuits in every home and apartment parking space, people will buy more standard range models and be able to tow long-distances conveniently without huge battery packs. This will make the raw materials for batteries support more vehicles (displacing more ICE) and facilitate more renewable energy generation.

This battle of reducing transport pollution is more a matter of infrastructure development: cleaner generation, more flexible distribution and places to charge wherever you look. The vehicles will take care of themselves because they will be cheaper to own than inferior gas vehicles.

Yer except Tesla will still sell the same number of cars they would have with an infrastructure upgrade. So what you are suggesting is good for the competition not for Tesla.

The Accountant · Jul 14, 2021

Criscmt said:
@The Accountant Does this impact your current estimates?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415062423002918918

I built my Q2 forecast using Q1 as a starting point.
Already in Q1, production could not keep up with Powerwall demand. She this statement in the Q1 earnings deck:

For Q2 I assumed that production would continue to fall short of demand. If the situation has worsened, it could take my EPS number from $1.06 to about $1.02 (still well above Wall Street of $0.96).

MC3OZ · Jul 14, 2021

Discoducky said:
Hmm, will they make it? No, but it will take a bunch of years to realize it, they'll most likely have to cut much of their portfolio to their highest profit and lowest cost of development products, they'll most likely have to either merge with others to stay afloat or raise capital at an absurdly high cost, they'll most likely need to sell off a bunch of assets and the horror is....they'll run out of advertising money someday and have to rely on their actual user experience of their products to keep their company.

Can any traditional car company transition to only making BEVs? No, it just isn't possible with traditional biz planning.

Can they adopt non-traditional biz planning? No, not when the highest folks still are in it for the money as opposed to the betterment of humanity. We've already passed those crossroads as nations, states, counties and cities realize it is cheaper to support sustainability now than to fight it. Money is about to pour into sustainability around the globe faster than it ever has before.

Maybe traditional car companies will get enough money from government to stay afloat? Maybe, but that feels like true gambling to me.

We need to keep in mind that the only car company that may be more vertically integrated than Tesla is BYD.

I don't see Chinese car makers as competition for Tesla, but Chinese and Korean EV makers will be competition for US, European and Japanese car makers.

In terms of battery supplies and rapid improvement of their products, I see the Chinese scaling production faster, and innovating faster than many traditional car makers.

I can't see a problem with Tesla scaling to 20 Million vehicles per year and being a dominant player in Robo-taxis, I don't care who finishes second.

More generally the advice I have been giving friends family and acquaintances is, if their retirement funds are invested with traditional fund managers, they hold a lot of oil stocks indirectly. I have advised they consider "ethical investment" funds, many of which hold some Tesla. Most have taken no notice, some are considering the issue. The general public and many companies are ill prepared and unaware of the change that is coming.

StealthP3D · Jul 14, 2021

mulder1231 said:
I’m pessimistic about Giga Berlin producing anything in 2021, because of the lengthy and complicated permit approval processes in Germany and these “environmentalist” group’s ability to delay and request hearings. See this recent video:

No, to me it looks like they will have started production before the year is out. Mark my words and revisit this in the new year.

StealthP3D · Jul 14, 2021

Curt Renz said:
The car was spotted in Chakan, which is located near Pune, where it was previously seen. This time, the Model 3 was dramatically different, as it was in a camouflage wrap. Tesla first applied this in India, so it's interesting what the company was trying to hide. Perhaps it was a different version of the car (Performance for example), or some design changes were made. However, the most likely reason is that Tesla ~~did not want to attract increased attention to the car ahead of time.~~ knows how to create free advertising and drum up customer excitement well in advance of product availability.

Fixed That For Them! Wrapping a car in camo, especially one that already exists, is cheap publicity, not an attempt to avoid increased attention.

Discoducky · Jul 14, 2021

StealthP3D said:
No, to me it looks like they will have started production before the year is out. Mark my words and revisit this in the new year.

That would be wonderful and I know there are folks who will be sleeping many nights in the factory to make that happen.

Hopefully they have the most comfortable bean bag sleepers like Fremont had or still has. I really appreciated those on many a night.

StealthP3D · Jul 14, 2021

JusRelax said:
I was just taking a look at the 1/21/2022 calls on maximum-pain.com and saw something odd that maybe someone can help explain to me. What are these 77k put options at strike price of $1 (???) on this chart?

View attachment 684571

I think those were Mark Spiegel's retirement dreams. Not that he has ever worked...

StealthP3D · Jul 14, 2021

Discoducky said:
That would be wonderful and I know there are folks who will be sleeping many nights in the factory to make that happen.

Hopefully they have the most comfortable bean bag sleepers like Fremont had or still has. I really appreciated those on many a night.

Berlin ramp will not be nearly as difficult as the Model 3 ramp. Each iteration of a production facility will be easier than the first, particularly when it's for an existing product.

ReddyLeaf · Jul 14, 2021

Discoducky said:
hypothetically, what max pain number would you say would be in our future for 7/23 come Monday morning? I'm thinking it will still be a pretty big wall at $720ish

Currently, MaxPain is predicting $669.69. We’ll, at least that’s my interpretation of slightly below $670. Of course, all subject to change as we approach Friday 7/23.

MP3Mike · Jul 14, 2021

StealthP3D said:
Berlin ramp will not be nearly as difficult as the Model 3 ramp. Each iteration of a production facility will be easier than the first, particularly when it's for an existing product.

Of course the ramp won't be for a 100% identical product. New cells, new pack design, new front casting, etc. At this point we don't know if GigaTexas or GigaBerlin will be the Guinea pig for the ramp. (Or maybe they will both essentially go through it at the same time.)

Though with GigaTexas already churning out front castings, they may be able to get some of it resolved ahead of the actual start of production.

Knightshade · Jul 14, 2021

PeterJA said:
My guess is no. Model Y will destroy Mockee sales. Cybertruck will destroy Lightening and Rivian. FSD will destroy competitors in general, including the ICE cash cows.

Ford will easily sell every single Mach E they make this year (and next!) as they will every EV F-150 they can make next year. Rivian'll sell every truck they can make to for the foreseeable future.

So will anyone else who can produce a reasonably decent EV in the next 5 years.

The problem isn't demand, and never was. The problem is, and continues to be, supply.

Demand is simply WAY higher for decent EVs than not just anybody, but everybody can meet for at least the next 5-10 years.

Tesla won't be making enough cars, even at their most aggressive production ramp targets, to replace more than 15-20% of new vehicles sold five years from now.

Since increasingly the other 80-85% of new vehicles will be ones customers want to be electric, whoever makes decent ones will have PLENTY of buyers for them.

The Mach E is decent. It comes up short in a number of ways compared to the Y, but Tesla doesn't have infinite Ys to sell and people want EVs.

They don't need to catch Tesla (and they couldn't even if they did need to). They just have to make some decent EVs.

Which if you recall, was Teslas mission... accelerating the worlds transition and all.

A year where Tesla AND other companies sell 100% of the EVs they can produce is better for that mission than Tesla sells all the EVs they can make and everyone elses sit there unsold.

FWIW Elons specific guess in late 2020 was "for sure" at least 30 million new EVs annual production within 7 years. With 20 million of those coming from Tesla.

Annual new car sales presently are around 80 million a year.

As more and more folks realize how worthless a new ICE car will be 5-10 years from now that'll probably shrink up some as folks keep existing ones on the road longer waiting on better EV supply, but there's a limit to how much that can be done.

And whoever makes those other 10 million as long as they're not total garbage will have no trouble selling em, and the only reason they won't be able to sell more is they lack the batteries to make more.

What may kill Ford is not an inability to sell 100% of their EV production- it'll be how few of them they're capable of producing.

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