Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

But, the margins, Bro!

How is it not screaming obvious to “financial professionals“ that Tesla’s opening up a geyser of cash?

Let me offer some possible reasons. In no particular order:

It’s too good to be true - we just discussed that often people can’t believe that which is right in front of them.

Dumb. Like low IQ dumb.

Slow to grasp because of the combination of the two items above.

And this is my particular favorite; pirates (and not the good kind).

 

[elasalle]

sideways is OK ... will give us TMCers time to accumulate for the next leg up ... my plan is 25 share lots DCA over coming weeks ... started today
we have a solid base ~ $650 now ...much less risky than in 2017 when i started accumulating .. i still see no better investment than TSLA for the next 5 years plus

not advice

Yup.
Gave up on short term plays .. 3 weeks with lotto play losses.
Just watch Theta decay on sold CC's and looks for opportune times to roll and buy more calls from the proceeds.

 

[StealthP3D]

The argument that Texas and Berlin need to be completed and ramped is just another moving of the goalposts. What’s ridiculously obvious is that those folks moving the goal posts don’t realize the game is already over.

What I find ridiculous is the way Tesla bulls are willing to aim for the new goal posts every time they are moved (instead of showing how many goals are being kicked through the old standards).

Tesla is consistently profitable, never mind whether it's with or without emissions credit revenue.
Tesla has more demand than they can handle, never mind if it's with or without federal tax credits.
Tesla is constantly gaining market share of the automotive market, never mind if it's in the Netherlands or Timbuktu or whether it's share of electrics in narrow local markets fell month over month. The rate of increase in global market share of all vehicles is the metric to watch.

Too much attention is paid to the fake goalposts invented by bears, Tesla bulls should just pay attention to goals that matter and constantly focus on the rising global sales, rising revenues, rising profits, increasing margins, increasing worldwide demand for cleaner transport and energy, increasing production capacity, decreasing unit costs and the technological innovation and economies of scale that are making it happen. Look for real potential issues, not fake ones invented by bears wandering off into the weeds.

 

[Chenkers]

A big advantage of Tesla moving to Monday earnings announcements is the extra couple of days in the week for institutions to absorb analysts reports and sort through the FUD. This should give plenty of time for the '3 day rule' to kick in and put some pressure on the MM for Friday.

Now we just need to see how long it will take to break through resistance at $650 and keep trending up to green and beyond.

 

[jbcarioca]

There are rare times when I see something as a strong Buy signal. When totally absurd excellent news sends the price down it becomes evident that sometime soon the price will go up. Nearly every post earnings report for Tesla the price declines and 'analysts' dismiss the results.

Be of good cheer. Our company is doing very, very well.
There is no doubt that there are major headwinds right now so the overall markets are skittish, not least due to political disarray (US, UK, Germany and on and on), environmental disasters on every inhabited continent, semiconductor shortages with no short term solution in sight...lots of solid reasons to be pessimistic.

Still, Tesla has weathered all that in quite spectacular fashion. The major impediments are semiconductor shortages, Models S and X, Giga Berlin delays, 4680 issues, cell supply shortages everywhere and FSD. Will Tesla suddenly be unable to navigate multiple major challenges? Of course not.

Then compare this situation to all the past potential problem areas. In nearly all of those Tesla had potential cash weakness. Until now earnings really did have a major and material contribution from regulatory credit sales. Those who argue that these are ephemeral are theoretically correct. Of course we all know that as Tesla grows they keep getting more of these rather than less although the sources vary. This quarter was lower but next quarter will be higher as, among other things, VAG China begins to pay.

Regardless Tesla free cash flow is amazing. Why, because they deliver products very, very quickly. Nine days inventory on hand is quite clearly astonishingly low, but Tesla keeps that low. So, what happens with Berlin and Austin online and Shanghai expansion. Inventory levels net drop due to short delivery cycles. They'll probably find a way to avoiding dropping below seven days ever, but that is a constant reminder of the excellence of Tesla logistics management and, above all, proof of being supply-limited as they grow. Will that continue? Quick answer, proof positive, is this; just check out expected new vehicle delivery for any product, any where. That proves there is no demand constraint, anywhere for anything. That includes Megapack, sold out through 2022 and Powerpack, also very much in demand.

Think about that, then decide if you think Tesla can continue to defy broader markets. If not, sell or short. If so, buy or hold.

For the first time in a year or so, I just made what is for me a substantial addition to TSLA. That isn't advice. However, I stated my basic logic. All the relevant backup was in the earnings report and the webcast. Decide for yourselves.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Did some stock for Calls action this morning......This time I'm spacing out when I do it and exclusively going for very far out LEAPS. Picked up Jan, March, and June 2023 Calls. All in the 1,000-1,300 range.

Gonna implement a strategy of continually swapping stock for calls if the stock goes lower and buy lower strike LEAPS.

This is like the gift of 2019 all over again.

 

[WattsHappening]

would you rather the money sat in cash, earning little to nothing, or was used to pay down high interest debt taken out years ago at high rates?

seems like a sensible use of some of the capital IMHO, as long as the markets are friendly to any future capital rises or new debt issues at lower rates if later needed.

It's actually worse than that. Elon recently mentioned they are earning negative returns in Europe, and how that is insane.

Unless they are concerned about short term cash needs (which clearly they aren't), it seems like a no-brainer to use this cash to pay down 5% debt.

The one question mark is any tax consequences of using cash in Europe versus corporate.

 

[Krugerrand]

In my opinion, it's going to take Berlin and Austin ramped to decent production numbers of Model Y and Cybertruck. FSD wide release will certainly help. So...in my opinion, Q2 2022 should see big gains in the stick price. Until then I think we will continue to see this short sighted BS from the street.

Hope I'm wrong and we see significant movement sooner, but I have become quite cynical of Wall Street's ability to value TSLA.

Dan

In my opinion, either they do get it but only care about how they can make the most money controlling the price or they’ll never get it. We’ve been saying the latter for years; as soon as such and such happens, WS will price TSLA appropriately. They never do.

Changed my mind. They both want to monetize the SP movement as much as possible to line their pockets and don’t get it.

 

[JustSaying]

Share dividends often do.

I couldn't finish eight slices, four is just enough...

 

[Krugerrand]

Huge drop at the open, but probably just closing the gap?

It will be interesting to see where we end today at.

Will it? Be interesting? I’m actually thinking of taking up a watching paint dry hobby. Seems to me that’s way less predictable than TSLA SP movement.

 

[scaesare]

Apparently you disagree with Zach as to his own career. Wikipedia has his bio: Zach Kirkhorn - Wikipedia, as does his LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/zachkirkhorn.

Wikipedia says:
Education
From 2002 to 2006, Kirkhorn studied both Economics at The Wharton School and Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics at the University of Pennsylvania as part of the Jerome Fisher Program in Management and Technology. In 2013, he received an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Career
During his studies in 2005, Kirkhorn joined Microsoft as a Financial Analyst Intern. In 2006, he did another 4-month internship at Microsoft as Program Manager Intern. After graduating in 2006, Kirkhorn spent nearly 3 years working at McKinsey & Company as a Senior Business Analyst.

In 2010, Kirkhorn joined Tesla as a Senior Analyst in Finance. In December 2014, he became Director of Finance, and in December 2018 he was appointed as Vice President of Finance. On January 30, 2019, Kirkhorn was announced to replace Deepak Ahuja as Tesla's new CFO on the Q4 Tesla earning call.

So when it comes to ignorance and arrogance, I think you win. This is not "new evidence".

So the fact is that Zach is a bean-counter, no matter how good. He was never an engineer. It is my opinion that that means he will never be CEO of Tesla, and that Elon will have lost his mind if he puts him in that position. It's not possible for him to do the job as it needs to be done for a company like Tesla. He's just great at the job he's doing.

So is your premise:

A) He's not educated as an engineer?

or

B) Because his previous career positions have not been engineering-related, his education doesn't count?


Because if it's "A", I give you this:

If it's "B", I ask: because a person with a degree in physics has worked primarily in manufacturing, does that mean he is not a degreed physicist in your eyes? Do you think he no longer has any insights in to how physics work and the impact it may have in his manufacturing work?

 

[SarahsDad]

Love Rob’s last comment…

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Revenge bought 10 @$643 because my cash is making me nothing ....TMC is such a great support group

 

[JusRelax]

What a gift the market has given us after an utterly stellar earnings report.

In absolute Chris Camillo fashion, our greatest disadvantage to the mm's is believing that they know more than we do. Do not let them control the narrative going on in your mind! Today's drop in Tesla sp after a complete blowout earnings report has resulted in a significant information advantage for us retailers. Go and do something about your information advantage!

I did a rather significant (for me) conversion of stocks to calls today to leverage my information advantage.

 

[DarkandStormy]

NASDAQ is down 1.4-1.5%. Virtually every other EV company is down 3+% on the day. Tesla in the red, yes, but outperforming the EV sector and a chance this afternoon it rebounds to outperform NASDAQ & QQQ.

 

[RichardL]

After simply Hodling for 6 years I was forced to add more today @ $638.50!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

@TheTalkingMule Turn any early morning tricks yet?

Why, you interested? Boom chicks boom chicks boom boom boom! I'm gathering my pennies to grab another bull spread or two.

Halfway decent volume thru 11:15. Nothing special, but I can't imagine this is anything other than MM's eating buy orders. Let's see if they get full any time soon.

 

[StealthP3D]

Summary: we here on TMC know more than Wall Street about Tesla. This will play itself out and reward long term holders handsomely. Don't second guess your decisions based on incompetent knee jerk reactions by Wall Street. They will never learn.

FTFY

 

[OrthoSurg]

Love Rob’s last comment…

Rob last comment made me add some chairs today.

 

[Krugerrand]

You know what really did disappoint me on that call? Right, "pay down debt". I don't mind a capital raise if I think the funds will be put to good use but when I hear it's getting used to pay down low interest debt, part of me thinks WTF?

And the other part is thinking; holy coo coo gazingas they got more cash than they know what to do with.

So whose head will explode when Tesla becomes entirely debt free? Calling it.