Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I had posed the question yesterday after these stellar results of "What are the odds that $TSLA finishes red tomorrow" @dl003

Perhaps you didn't notice, but it is still the middle of the morning!

I don't see it as remotely possible we close red today.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Perhaps you didn't notice, but it is still the middle of the morning!

I don't see it as remotely possible we close red today.

Yeap....still time...silver lining is at least we've only given back a little bit more on what we gained yesterday

 

[Singuy]

While i agree with your analysis....i was secretly hoping i would be 100% wrong today

Don't we all. Tsla sp seesaw so much that people still think there's a rhythm or reason to why the sp moves. There were some key earnings and events that explained tsla movement, everything else is just a lot of

 

[vwman111]

The algos will be getting quite an update in the morning, we'll see what effect this new revenue/earnings level has on things.

I'm still thinking the 200 day moving avg heading north very soon is likely gonna help the upward trajectory. We're about 175 trading days from Nov 16, 2020 when the major upswing began.

I know nothing about nothing and am always wrong on timing.....but if we're somehow treading water a month from now I'm going back into prostitution and loading up on LEAPs. This is getting absurd.

@TheTalkingMule Turn any early morning tricks yet?

 

[Krugerrand]

I think that Tesla is planning on selling batteries to other car manufacturers as well. No one else is able to mass produce cars because they don’t have a battery supply.

Yeah, as soon as Tesla can meet their own battery demand - so like a few decades from now or never.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

You know what really did disappoint me on that call? Right, "pay down debt". I don't mind a capital raise if I think the funds will be put to good use but when I hear it's getting used to pay down low interest debt, part of me thinks WTF?

 

[scaesare]

I'll just leave this here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419688173828026368

I feel dirty for having watched even a portion of that.

 

[traxila]

Bought 2023 ITM LEAPS. 2X leverage is good enough for me. I haven't been accumulating a new tranche since 500s. And WS has shown me their power relentlessly. Bought them too soon today! I am OK with this.

Yes, TSLA is still richly valued, but only if you ignore the unprecedented realities of this company. It is literally doing what has never been done and seems on track to continue exactly that. WS cannot or does not want to comprehend. They are only about bouncing the stock around and scalping the profits.

Not sure what results Tesla had to show to be green right now, they could not have possibly posted better numbers on what was known. This was a stunningly good report and the company continues to be on track for a 100% growth over the next 12 months just on autos alone. Again, unprecedented for a company this size. Their economies of scale are finally kicking in significantly and it will soon be revealed how much cheaper it is to build an electric car than an ICE in mass quantities for all to see. I think TSLA has a shot at 10/share profit in 4Q of 2022, with growth leveling off to the 40 to 50% range. Yeah, sounds outrageous. Everything about TSLA does lately.

 

[Zero CO2]

We should all embrace the FUD and BUY MORE!

25 more chairs this AM ... I overpaid @ $647 ... i appreciate the FUD keep it coming .. this way i have time to find more dry powder

 

[traxila]

You know what really did disappoint me on that call? Right, "pay down debt". I don't mind a capital raise if I think the funds will be put to good use but when I hear it's getting used to pay down low interest debt, part of me thinks WTF?

Least you found something to disappoint.

Tesla has no dirt cheap debt based on interest rates today. All their debt was raised with junk ratings in a higher interest rate environment. In addition, they cannot deploy the cash pile they have with their current infrastructure. It makes sense to pay it down and strengthen the fortress balance sheet while waiting to see if you need to reraise at much better rates. TSLA is going to have a problem putting their money to work in the future. Almost as if they are too efficient with it.....

 

[Singuy]

You know what really did disappoint me on that call? Right, "pay down debt". I don't mind a capital raise if I think the funds will be put to good use but when I hear it's getting used to pay down low interest debt, part of me thinks WTF?

It cost Tesla right now to hold cash. You can't expand too fast as there's a shortage of high quality labor. So paying down 5+% interest debt helps with net income which reduces PE when that money is not put to use. When Tesla wants to expand again after Berlin/Texas matures, their cash printer would have restocked all that cash used to pay debt from years prior and then some.

 

[Atomsla]

Not sure what results Tesla had to show to be green right now

This.

 

[goinfraftw]

It cost Tesla right now to hold cash. You can't expand too fast as there's a shortage of high quality labor. So paying down 5+% interest debt helps with net income which reduces PE when that money is not put to use. When Tesla wants to expand again after Berlin/Texas matures, their cash printer would have restocked all that cash used to pay debt from years prior and then some.

Elon Musk, during Autonomy Day, a few years ago talked about how the company could likely stop selling cars completely and just run a gigantic fleet of "robotaxis". In that scenario, paying down debt would be important because they wouldn't be generating revenue from automotive sales anymore.

 

[elasalle]

Seems market is in version 2 of competition is coming (money on ICE and SPACS)
Retail investors, RH'ers cannot create any sustainable volume.

Seems sideways until 4680, Austin or Berlin come online .. or FSD Beta wide release

Was expecting a strong reaction after blowout earnings ...

Patience is a Virtue ....

 

[SOULPEDL]

Still worth $21, AND I have till Friday
I love this game!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seems market is in version 2 of competition is coming (money on ICE and SPACS)
Retail investors, RH'ers cannot create any sustainable volume.

Seems sideways until 4680, Austin or Berlin come online .. or FSD Beta wide release

Was expecting a strong reaction after blowout earnings ...

Patience is a Virtue ....

Or until Q3 margins of 30%+

I'm highly confident between the many price hikes that will show up in Q3 earnings + the S going from negative margin to back to it's usual margin, we'll see the magic 30% number

 

[Pezpunk]

sigh. had to add another 200 shares. price is too good to resist.

 

[JupiterMan]

You know what really did disappoint me on that call? Right, "pay down debt". I don't mind a capital raise if I think the funds will be put to good use but when I hear it's getting used to pay down low interest debt, part of me thinks WTF?

would you rather the money sat in cash, earning little to nothing, or was used to pay down high interest debt taken out years ago at high rates?

seems like a sensible use of some of the capital IMHO, as long as the markets are friendly to any future capital rises or new debt issues at lower rates if later needed.

 

[mongo]

would you rather the money sat in cash, earning little to nothing, or was used to pay down high interest debt taken out years ago at high rates?

seems like a sensible use of some of the capital IMHO, as long as the markets are friendly to any future capital rises or new debt issues at lower rates if later needed.

Indeed, reduction in expenses is as good as increasing profit. And who doesn't like an extra $100 Million a quarter, $0.10 per share?
Recent interest expense figures (bottom number is Q2)
185
170
169
170
163
246
99
75

 

[Zero CO2]

Seems market is in version 2 of competition is coming (money on ICE and SPACS)
Retail investors, RH'ers cannot create any sustainable volume.

Seems sideways until 4680, Austin or Berlin come online .. or FSD Beta wide release

Was expecting a strong reaction after blowout earnings ...

Patience is a Virtue ....

sideways is OK ... will give us TMCers time to accumulate for the next leg up ... my plan is 25 share lots DCA over coming weeks ... started today
we have a solid base ~ $650 now ...much less risky than in 2017 when i started accumulating .. i still see no better investment than TSLA for the next 5 years plus

not advice