Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

As much as I would like this to be true, I think it's not there yet (pre-FSD Beta 9, anyway).

I just took a 2-day road trip with Navigate on AP on pretty much the whole time. There were some wrinkles. It liked to declare its intention to change lanes, put the blinker on, and wait waaaay too long to execute. Several times I'd be watching a car approaching at like +10mph in the lane it was going to change into, and it would cheerfully wait until the car was nearly caught up and then try to cut it off. Another wrinkle was when it would be coming up behind a truck at like +1mph, with a car approaching in the left lane at +5mph or more, and it would try to execute the lane change waaaay before it caught up to the truck, thereby forcing the approach car to slow way down and wait a really long time for it to execute the pass and change lanes. Then, it seemed like maybe 1 in 10 times it should have changed lanes, it just wouldn't decide to. If I put on the blinker then it would change, and subsequent changes worked fine. I never figured out whether there were particular circumstances that caused it to not try to change lanes (passing lane clear, -1mph to -5mph compared to vehicle in front...) One time I guess the sun made the dashed lane lines look solid due to a strip of tar where they had joined two paving strips. Only once in the whole two days did it start a lane change and then abort, and maybe two of three times it braked for poor reasons (thinking a truck was coming into its lane when it wasn't, or seeing traffic in a merging on-ramp and braking even though the ramp lane was still 10 feet away from the rest of the highway). Once I intervened to avoid a cone... there was a coned-off lane which it respected, except the cones were placed 6-12 inches into our travel lane, and when one was more like 18-24 inches into the lane, it looked like we were going to clip it. Also, I guess, once it followed some cones that resulting in us driving half in a lane and half on the shoulder, but the lane-departure warning went bananas so while we were driving the right place it was like having a screaming toddler in the car.

Bottom line, I was still happy to have it compared to the incessant beeping of lane changes with AP but without Navigate on AP... but it still has a lot of room for improvement to reach zero interventions on a day-long highway drive.

I look forward to the FSD Beta 9 logic getting merged in to the regular Navigate on AP operation.

Gosh. I don’t know, but that sounds like how a lot of people drive. Seems it should have fit right in.

 

[Wicket]

Now i am embarrassed because I am of Asian descent and we're supposed to be good at math.....doh!!!

to be fair, TA is closer to arts and literature than math or engineering.

 

[Knightshade]

So, they pass the infrastructure bill yet? Its been 6+ months of waiting

Nope.

For one, there's not "one" infrastructure bill.

They're trying to do a "small one they can get at least 10 GOP votes for".... that they managed to get as far as voting to allow discussion of it yesterday (though the final text of the bill is yet to be written)

Then they're gonna do the much larger one, the one that potentially has EV purchase credits in it, via reconciliation- but again nobody's sure exactly what's gonna be in that either.

The latest artificial deadline for these is August 9th because the senate goes into recess after that for a month.

 

[goinfraftw]

Nope.

For one, there's not "one" infrastructure bill.

They're trying to do a "small one they can get at least 10 GOP votes for".... that they managed to get as far as voting to allow discussion of it yesterday (though the final text of the bill is yet to be written)

Then they're gonna do the much larger one, the one that potentially has EV purchase credits in it, via reconciliation- but again nobody's sure exactly what's gonna be in that either.

The latest artificial deadline for these is August 9th because the senate goes into recess after that for a month.

There's only so much Elon Musk & team and economics can do (in short <-> long time period) without wide-government support during consistent, prolonged crisis situations occurring in almost every country due to climate change.

G20 fails to agree on climate goals in communique

Energy and environment ministers from the Group of 20 rich nations have failed to agree on the wording of key climate change commitments in their final communique, Italy's Ecological Transition Minister Roberto Cingolani said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

 

[lafrisbee]

Looks like equipment with a high point near the middle. Not really Cybertruck shape (nor would stainless steel chassis need rain protection)

I see what you see. But remember we got some people that gots mad skillz. They could have comparitively measured something they know in the photo to it to get very close dimensions to what the cyber chassis' fictional dimensions are as well.

 

[ammulder]

Gosh. I don’t know, but that sounds like how a lot of people drive. Seems it should have fit right in.

So you’re saying… we can only bow to our robotic overlords if we can tell they’re our robotic overlords?

Cylons FTW!

 

[Unpilot]

As much as I would like this to be true, I think it's not there yet (pre-FSD Beta 9, anyway).

I just took a 2-day road trip with Navigate on AP on pretty much the whole time. There were some wrinkles. It liked to declare its intention to change lanes, put the blinker on, and wait waaaay too long to execute. Several times I'd be watching a car approaching at like +10mph in the lane it was going to change into, and it would cheerfully wait until the car was nearly caught up and then try to cut it off. Another wrinkle was when it would be coming up behind a truck at like +1mph, with a car approaching in the left lane at +5mph or more, and it would try to execute the lane change waaaay before it caught up to the truck, thereby forcing the approach car to slow way down and wait a really long time for it to execute the pass and change lanes. Then, it seemed like maybe 1 in 10 times it should have changed lanes, it just wouldn't decide to. If I put on the blinker then it would change, and subsequent changes worked fine. I never figured out whether there were particular circumstances that caused it to not try to change lanes (passing lane clear, -1mph to -5mph compared to vehicle in front...) One time I guess the sun made the dashed lane lines look solid due to a strip of tar where they had joined two paving strips. Only once in the whole two days did it start a lane change and then abort, and maybe two of three times it braked for poor reasons (thinking a truck was coming into its lane when it wasn't, or seeing traffic in a merging on-ramp and braking even though the ramp lane was still 10 feet away from the rest of the highway). Once I intervened to avoid a cone... there was a coned-off lane which it respected, except the cones were placed 6-12 inches into our travel lane, and when one was more like 18-24 inches into the lane, it looked like we were going to clip it. Also, I guess, once it followed some cones that resulting in us driving half in a lane and half on the shoulder, but the lane-departure warning went bananas so while we were driving the right place it was like having a screaming toddler in the car.

Bottom line, I was still happy to have it compared to the incessant beeping of lane changes with AP but without Navigate on AP... but it still has a lot of room for improvement to reach zero interventions on a day-long highway drive.

I look forward to the FSD Beta 9 logic getting merged in to the regular Navigate on AP operation.

Yeah I see the same...but this is not version 9.0
Remember it only gets better ..mostly.

I HATE driving a non Tesla AP car on the highway.

 

[CLK350]

Since Monday’s report of a one billion dollar profit, I’ve been soaking up YouTube vids. There are so many reasons why a billion is going to look small in a couple of years, I can’t seem to hold them all in my head. I need a simple list. Please extend it if I miss something.

Operating leverage, fixed costs are fixed (der)
Two huge factories, Berlin and Austin
In house cell making, 4680s
LFP chemistry for cheaper raw materials
More output from existing factories
Models S and X
Higher auto margins, up to 40% (e.g. from gigapressed body)
Structural pack (less raw material, lighter car)
Higher ASP due to demand inflection
Energy storage business ramping, deconstrained
Autobidder
Supercharger revenue from non-Teslas
FSD subs
FSD sales
New models, cyber, semi, roadster
Robotaxi (wildcard)

I think my point is that PE ratio alone is enough to drive the stock by a multiple; maths that requires no subjectivism, unlike the robotaxi wildcard.

Cheers

+ New models - cyber, semi, M2 (or MZ as in VW XYZ), van/ bus, roadster,
+ Insurance V2.0 for nationwide coverage
+ The Boring Co expansion
+ Vision AI - once FSD in good shape sold as VAIAAS (Vision AI As A Service)
+ Tesla restaurants /lounges at SC locations
+ Integrated HVAC /Solar housing/ Boxabl
+ <good usage of extra cash>

 

[ammulder]

Yeah I see the same...but this is not version 9.0
Remember it only gets better ..mostly.

I HATE driving a non Tesla AP car on the highway.

Oh, for sure… not saying I want my money back. Just don’t think highway driving is bulletproof yet. Meanwhile, from the “eagerly awaiting The Button” department… we’re having a water fight with the “eagerly awaiting some news on the X” department.

 

[mongo]

I normally agree with you Mongo, but based on the curve and the banding, I think that is a Cybertruck... Probably covered it up because it's a package with other items for shipping or other purchases. At least I hope it is as that would indicate it's further along than we thought. Amazing, Ford gets a bump in the SP because they have reservations of 120k (compared to over a million for CT) and production is go to start mid 2022 (yeah right) and CT may be the end of this year.

I can't wait, but I guess we'll have to...

A disagree from thee?
Et tu, Brute?

A cybertruck cannot be banded at those points (at least with vertical straps), and there is no roofline ridge along with asymmetrical near and far sides. The chunk out the left end also looks is too wide to fit in the bed.
It could be anything that fits within the volume of the packaging, but the near side triangles formed by the high point is not sufficient indication (to me, at least. And I'm waiting for one of them).
Edit: context pic:

 

[CLK350]

Has anyone noticed Elon's increased Tweet output/ hr - is there a message there - or he's got more "free" time, or his Social networking aide has received some new mandate? Also @PPathole (Pranay Prathole) who used to *immediately* follow Elon's new tweets has gotten silent recently.

 

[wipster]

A disagree from thee?
Et tu, Brute?

A cybertruck cannot be banded at those points (at least with vertical straps), and there is no roofline ridge along with asymmetrical near and far sides. The chunk out the left end also looks is too wide to fit in the bed.
It could be anything that fits within the volume of the packaging, but the near side triangles formed by the high point is not sufficient indication (to me, at least. And I'm waiting for one of them).
Edit: context pic:
View attachment 689740

View attachment 689736View attachment 689737

Agree to disagree mate, but regardless unless we get a picture of what's under the cover it's all conjecture anyway. You say potato, I say tomato, let's call the whole thing something with a green cover on it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So what charity is everyone giving their $650 to to show support to Tesla? I would suggest a unified effort to create an impactful figure going to one entity.

Tesla agrees to pay $1.5 mln to settle claims over battery voltage reduction

Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle claims a software update temporarily reduced maximum battery voltage in 1,743 Model S sedans, court documents show.

reut.rs

 

[JustMe]

So what charity is everyone giving their $650 to to show support to Tesla? I would suggest a unified effort to create an impactful figure going to one entity.

Tesla agrees to pay $1.5 mln to settle claims over battery voltage reduction

Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle claims a software update temporarily reduced maximum battery voltage in 1,743 Model S sedans, court documents show.

reut.rs

How about The Human Fund?

Actually, I think this sort of post is out of bounds.

 

[FireMedic]

How many years until we must act on climate? Zero, say these climate thinkers

We asked a panelist of experts on when we need to start changing our economies and ways of consuming and producing. Their answer: now

t.co

excellent 5 minute read.

Spoiler: we have negative time left to avoid climate disaster.

If you can afford a few dollars to help support this kind of journalism; please do.

 

[InTheShadows]

Have to love some of the latest news articles on TOS:

Someone really has this one all mixed up. F lost money and went up in price yet Tsla had $1b+ profit and drops.

Then this one is being published as fact, when it is for sure speculation.

 

[Criscmt]

Picked this source instead of posting Sawyer Merritt’s tweet. The pic in Sawyer’s re-tweet might be exaggerating the situation.

EPA monitoring atmosphere, water used in Big Battery blaze

Environment Protection Authority Victoria (EPA) has deployed two mobile air quality monitors after a big battery blaze which seems destined to ente...

www.bay939.com.au

 

[StealthP3D]

Proportions are wrong for Cyber

It looks to me like it's a bunch of palleted and bundled Cybertruck components, no glass. Not all parts are in proper relation to each other and there might be two or three skeletons on each pallet.

They obviously don't need them in Texas yet, they just wanted to get them out of Fremont now to make space (and because they will eventually need them in TX anyway to kickstart CT production).

 

[StealthP3D]

Does anyone know a legit reason that Option Open interest (and by association, max pain) isn't updated in real time? ("Don't let them see behind the curtain" is the only one I can think of ). The exchange data systems update hundreds of thousands of bids/asks/trades for stocks and options every millisecond... but the technology isn't there to keep a real time tally of open options contracts? Seems more than a little fishy to me.

Your first reason is correct (but, of course, it's not a legit reason). Nothing fishy about it, just opaqueness and corruption.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If Tesla can perfect a fire proof battery, that will be a huge competitive advantage