Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Grimes ar giga Berlin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426339381812600833

 

[ZsoZso]

I feel like I should know this but will the first Model Ys out of Berlin be 4860s? Or is this still an unknown?

As far as I know, the plan is that Model Ys both from Berlin and Texas would use 4680 structural packs + front and back giga-casting. The question is, will the plan survive contact with the enemy reality ? It all depends on the timing of completion of the rest of the factory (when production can start) versus fixing the last scaling issues of 4680 production at the Kato road pilot line. If 4680 production scaling still not solved when everything else is ready to pump out Model Ys from Berlin, then I guess they will start building them using whatever is available (2170s?) rather than delaying production start, then switch over to 4680 whenever that problem is solved.

Bottom-line: there is still a lot of moving parts in this puzzle, they will do whatever is the best course of action at any point of time, rapidly adapting, changing as needed. At least, that is the picture I built about Tesla's mode of operation so far, but what do I know ?

 

[MC3OZ]

If only someone said they were going to visit Giga Berlin and could sneak around to find out...

That is probably what Grimes is doing....

 

[Tim S]

At the Mt Kisco, NY Service Center today. My wife was test driving the Model Y.
I saw 6 parties taking test drives and all for the Model Y. The place was busy.
2 Model S Plaids were ready for delivery and going out this weekend.
My wife ordered the Model Y LR and expected delivery is January. . . . . .#nodemand
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My wife ordered a Model Y LR last Monday Aug 9th and expected delivery is December, also at Mt Kisco.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

It's the weekend, so please forgive me for something just a bit off-topic. Babcock Ranch, Florida is billed as America's first solar powered town. Not so much from rooftops, but a huge solar array just north of the town. Every home garage comes standard with a 240-volt electrical connection for charging an EV. If this is the way homebuilders are headed, Tesla should be a huge beneficiary.

PBS NewsHour - 4 months ago:

Curt, any possibility of getting Elon and the developer working on something similar around each Gigafactory, all tied in with PowerWalls?

 

[SarahsDad]

Might’ve missed this since it was posted on Reddit 4 days ago, but hilarious FSD comparison between Tesla and Mercedes:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/p1q0ql

Tesla FSD Beta vs Mercedes-Benz DrivePilot comparison shows big difference in tech

Tesla typically catches flak among critics because its Autopilot system and FSD Beta are still classified as SAE Level 2 driver-assist systems. This means that while the vehicles are able to handle most driving tasks, drivers must have their hands at the steering wheel so they could take over...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Discoducky]

That is probably what Grimes is doing....

This feels like a challenge

 

[hobbes]

I feel like I should know this but will the first Model Ys out of Berlin be 4860s? Or is this still an unknown?

It has been the goal but during the earnings report Elon said for the first time (IIRC) they have a backup plan with 2170 cells:

The Model Y is in Texas and made Texas, and Berlin will look very much like the Model Y’s we currently make, but that there are substantial improvements in the difficulty of manufacturing. So for example, the Model Y made here and in Berlin will have a cast front body and a cast rear body. Whereas the one in California has cast rear body, but not a cast front body. We’re also aiming to do a structural pack with 4680 cells, which is a mass reduction and a cost reduction. But we’re not counting on that as the only way to make things work. We have some backup plans with a non-structural pack and 2170, essentially.

Tesla, Inc. TSLA Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | Rev Blog

Full transcript of the Tesla, Inc. (symbol TSLA) Q2 2021 earnings conference call from July 26, 2021.

www.rev.com

I find it highly likely that they´ll start with 2170 in Berlin, use the Kato Rd 4680 in Austin and once they have structural mass production figured out there and the cell factory in Berlin is ready (which they started building only very recently) they will start doing structural pack in Berlin, too.

 

[heltok]

Seems that 9.2 is out:

Hopefully this is good enough that they can brag about it on AI day.

 

[InDaClub]

Seriously, those trying to downplay this achievement are being ridiculous. If Tesla had built this same vehicle you'd all be freaking out about how amazing it is. Don't be the ugly Tesla fans. At the same time I was figuring out how to convert my 6 wheeler and Fiero to electric Mate was on the DIYElectric car forums figuring out how to convert his BMW. In the same time that I've done a few more tractor conversions he's built supercars and a game changing company.

Have you considered that some here may be fans of Rimac and their accomplishments, but don't necessarily want to read about it here on the Tesla investment forum. Perhaps the Rimac discussion should be taken to the Rimac forums.

 

[Singuy]

Check out that logistic lot packed with Model 3s/Ys! Don't see any production issues here.

 

[JustMe]

Omar is super impressed with FSD 9.2:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426896266424840196

 

[lascavarian]

Omar is super impressed with FSD 9.2:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426896266424840196

Do we know what that blinking red dot is that is imaged off the driver’s side of the rendering?

 

[Singuy]

Omar is super impressed with FSD 9.2:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426896266424840196

I take Omar's impression of FSD 9.2 with a grain of salt. The guy is a hype machine for FSD and if wasn't for people like Chuck or AIdriver doing alternative reviews, you would think FSD is ready for someone to set it and sleep from FSD 1.0 based on Omar. Chuck is perhaps the best at reviewing FSD since he does the same route multiple times to capture progress. The closest thing to a scientific test on progress vs anyone else on youtube.

 

[JusRelax]

I take Omar's impression of FSD 9.2 with a grain of salt. The guy is a hype machine for FSD and if wasn't for people like Chuck or AIdriver doing alternative reviews, you would think FSD is ready for someone to set it and sleep from FSD 1.0 based on Omar. Chuck is perhaps the best at reviewing FSD since he does the same route multiple times to capture progress. The closest thing to a scientific test on progress vs anyone else on youtube.

Chuck Cook reported that unprotected left turns are seemingly actually worse on 9.2 than 9.1. My guess is that the FSD team focused on other improvements, not unprotected left turns.

 

[JRP3]

Have you considered that some here may be fans of Rimac and their accomplishments, but don't necessarily want to read about it here on the Tesla investment forum. Perhaps the Rimac discussion should be taken to the Rimac forums.

No I don't consider that discussing a vehicle which will definitely be compared to Tesla vehicles is off topic in any way, nor do I think that's any sort of excuse to try and downplay the efforts and achievements of that manufacturer.

 

[woodisgood]

In SF, Waymo has been pressing hard. They hired more drivers, increased the number of vehicles, and they’re running them 24/7 - I’ve seen them driving around at 3am. My speculation is they needed a lot more training data, but of course I’m biased. This push seemed to occur after their CEO stepped down.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

A very detailed thread with financial forecasts. James is very thorough. He said there will be 69 tweets in the thread, but so far only about a dozen

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426929353712144385

 

[82bert]

Chuck Cook reported that unprotected left turns are seemingly actually worse on 9.2 than 9.1. My guess is that the FSD team focused on other improvements, not unprotected left turns.

Elon’s tweet this AM regarding 9.2 updates. Nice technical look at what’s happening behind the scenes. He also commented on button (wide release) happening with 10.1. Next beta updates he stated are 9.3, 9.4, then jump to 10 with major architecture changes. So if 2 week timeline for each, then 10.1 is closer to roughly 2+ months. Fingers crossed.

 

[AudubonB]

Elon’s tweet this AM regarding 9.2 updates. Nice technical look at what’s happening behind the scenes. He also commented on button (wide release) happening with 10.1. Next beta updates he stated are 9.3, 9.4, then jump to 10 with major architecture changes. So if 2 week timeline for each, then 10.1 is closer to roughly 2+ months. Fingers crossed.

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Upon going on to Mr Musk’s tweet-stream, the last entry - the sole one for Aug 14 - is “Mad respect for the makers “, referring to SpaceX’s latest accomplishments. To what is the above referring?