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I feel for these owners. Truly frightening
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Nolimits
Member
Good morning. New trading day!
Are we going to test $750?
That's one of the good things about TSLA stock. Up or down, never a dull day.
Hopefully by Friday. I am sure there is historic statistic about Friday closings before Labor Day
Nolimits
Member
As much as I love seeing the competition fail to keep up w tesla, I think it instills more fear about EVs in general. 
Or maybe it’ll shine light on Tesla’s technological lead.
Or maybe it’ll shine light on Tesla’s technological lead.I hope this gets sorted out before Bolts are allowed to charge on the supercharger network.
Ditto, it does also raise questions about the use of pouch battery form. Bolts are not the only cars catching on fire with LG pouch batteries. I'd go ahead and say that the GM ultimateain'tmade battery, being a large pouch, is likely going to be ....an issue. I am not a material orAs much as I love seeing the competition fail to keep up w tesla, I think it instills more fear about EVs in general.
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My interpretation/guess of yesterday's action based on a tweet from @ChrisDungeon is that $TSLA $19 price jump yesterday could in part be due to a whale purchase of 2-2.5 million shares. The corresponding drop in option prices (with IV crush to 0% IV rank) is because that buyer also sold massively on Jan & March 2023 $400 naked puts and also sold March & June 2023 $900 covered calls to help fund the stock purchase.
Typically options implied volatility crush happens after earnings or the release of an anticipated news, since the risk is gone. But as we had neither of them yesterday, a massive selling of options event would be another possible explanation.
Typically options implied volatility crush happens after earnings or the release of an anticipated news, since the risk is gone. But as we had neither of them yesterday, a massive selling of options event would be another possible explanation.
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I prefer to see any EV to roll on the road and reduce the carbon dioxide emissions. To see them burning every night emitting some Toxic gas fumes with inappropriate response from the manufacturer doesnt fit in the transition to sustainable transport framework. I understand when battery packs catch fire after a high velocity collision, but it’s sad to see battery packs catch fire because of faulty assembly or poor engineering.As much as I love seeing the competition fail to keep up w tesla, I think it instills more fear about EVs in general.
hacer
Active Member
I agree with your overall assessment. Listening to this interview certainly increased my confidence in TSLA's long term outlook.
Regarding the line I highlighted above, besides those two points I also heard him say (paraphrasing) "we have designed a new visual processing chip that is much better than Tesla's". Of course I don't believe that but it's more or less what he said.
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Warning about todays TSLA price. My wife got her commission check today. So good chance that market will be down. Not as likely if the payday fell on a Friday.
Wait for the article's from the usual suspects...they will work in Tesla AP crashes somehow.
Dancing Lemur
Hoopy Frood
We all agree that the Bolt thing is bad for EVs, but what I find interesting is how GM is handling it with regard to their battery supplier, LG. For starters, they are trying to get them to pay a good chunk of the ~$1.8B recall.
Then the GM spokesman, Dan Flores, says, “Because we are not confident that LG has the capability to build defect-free products, we’ve put the repairs on hold and we are not building new Bolts. We’re not going to start recall repairs or start building new Bolts until we’re confident LG will build defect-free products.”
Ouch, that’s a harsh burn. That’s more of a “we think your product sucks” public shaming than a “supply us more chips” Elon-type call out.
And LG is also their supplier/partner for their upcoming Ultium-based EVs (Hummer, Lyriq, etc).
GM may be in worse shape than we thought. Currently they’re making no EVs. But they’re still making Buicks.
Then the GM spokesman, Dan Flores, says, “Because we are not confident that LG has the capability to build defect-free products, we’ve put the repairs on hold and we are not building new Bolts. We’re not going to start recall repairs or start building new Bolts until we’re confident LG will build defect-free products.”
Ouch, that’s a harsh burn. That’s more of a “we think your product sucks” public shaming than a “supply us more chips” Elon-type call out.
And LG is also their supplier/partner for their upcoming Ultium-based EVs (Hummer, Lyriq, etc).
GM may be in worse shape than we thought. Currently they’re making no EVs. But they’re still making Buicks.
I'm wondering how much potential there is for a determination that pouch cells have a higher inherent risk that requires reevaluation of OEM's battery plans.
Now when GM goes bankrupt again and needs another bailout, they can tell the government that they tried to make EVs, but they couldn't because of factors beyond their control. Never mind the fact that they chose pouch cells to save money instead of going with Tesla's proven technology.
it was interesting watching this, but i had to do closed captioning at 2x speed for an hour.In my interview with Peter Mertens (Audi, VW, Volvo, Polestar, Jaguar Land Rover former Top Manager) he claimed VW to overtake Tesla in 1H2022 with BEVs and that Tesla didn't make any profits excluding credits, Well the latter earned me a free bottle of champaign
It was fun talking to him and I may do more interviews with former top executives. Interested?
Because Peter talks regularly with a lot of former colleagues that are now customers in his board roles at Recogni, Valend a.o. he has deep insights into their thoughts.
a few takeaways
400,000 Euro severance packages from Daimler to folks, some that subsequently went to work for Tesla!
a bottle of champagne for Alex for Tesla getting profits not just from credits but actual profits
gestalt observation.
the interviewee is seeing the future roaring past, accelerating into the unknown
aside:
Tesla is like “Sleeper Service”, red shifting at 233,500 x speed of light past the competition,
the competition, hopefully, maybe, promising something in the next 2-4 years, maybe a bit longer, hoping not to get sued, afraid of failing, being cautious, and not “gob-smacked” and mind boggled not understanding, by AI day.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
You only had to look as far as their partnership with NKLA to know they’re either too stupid to survive the EV transition or so diabolical they’ll do anything to avoid it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It's got nothing to due with the battery cell form factor. It's all about forming dendrites due to overcharging (c.f. BMS firmware), which eventually pierce the separator membrane causing an electrical short curcuit and spontaneous combustion. That's why these GM Bolts burst into flames at random times.
Dr. Jeff Dahn at Dalhousie U. has spent over 6 years researching battery cells, and has identified the correct blend of electrolyte additives to reduce the risk of dendrite formation. As I said, the rest is BMS firmware, which amounts to not overcharging the cells (too fast, or too high).
BTW, this issue in NOT new. Read this article from Oct 14, 2014:
Scientists pinpoint cause of harmful dendrites and whiskers in lithium batteries
Scientists have uncovered a root cause of the growth of needle-like structures -- known as dendrites and whiskers -- that plague lithium batteries, sometimes causing a short circuit, failure, or even a fire. Such defects are a major factor holding back the batteries from even more widespread use...
www.sciencedaily.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Pouch cells inevitably have a more flexible outer case than cylindrical. That in turn means there will be mechanical movement going on to a greater extent than in cylindrical. Combine that wth dendrites, add in poor BMS, and voila, bang.It's got nothing to due with the battery cell form factor. It's all about forming dendrites due to overcharging (c.f. BMS firmware), which eventually pierce the separator membrane causing an electrical short curcuit and spontaneous combustion. That's why these GM Bolts burst into flames at random times.
Dr. Jeff Dahn at Dalhousie U. has spent over 6 years researching battery cells, and has identified the correct blend of electrolyte additives to reduce the risk of dendrite formation. As I said, the rest is BMS firmware, which amounts to not overcharging the cells (too fast, or too high).
BTW, this issue in NOT new. Read this article from Oct 14, 2014:
Scientists pinpoint cause of harmful dendrites and whiskers in lithium batteries
Scientists have uncovered a root cause of the growth of needle-like structures -- known as dendrites and whiskers -- that plague lithium batteries, sometimes causing a short circuit, failure, or even a fire. Such defects are a major factor holding back the batteries from even more widespread use...www.sciencedaily.com
(as many laptop and cell phone owners find out when they take off their bulging cover plates.
(At least that is the way I see it - am I wrong)
(Surely, to an extent the same is the case with prismatics. Both the bend radius at the corner curves are a greater issue than the corresponding cylindtrical spiral roll, and the mechanical rigidity of the casing is less than the cylinder's rigidity for the same casing thickness (pure hoop stress) - again, am I wrong ?)
(Add in that cylindrical/spiral roll-forming production machinery is generally better/faster/cheaper/more repeatable for these sorts of processes and that volumetric fill is not that different, plus opportunity to load-share/function-share and it seems generally preferable to go down the cylindrical can route. It is not that the others can't succeed, but that they might not be preferable. So we may one day see Teslas with these form factors, never say never.)
GM would have had to approve the LG engineering before they purchased batteries, so similar to the driver in an AP crash, it's GM's responsibility.
It is unfortunate for them, and the perception of EV's as a whole.
And while I try to remain skeptical of sensational reports, knowing what I've seen reported about Tesla's, unfortunately it appears that this is a very real issue for Bolts, given the mass recall.
That having been said, I wish folks would stop using "exploded" for what are really conflagrations.
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