Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

According to this article and linked video, Fremont is building X's. I can't confirm since my Starlink is still on back order.
Actionable Trading Ideas, Real Time News, Financial Insight | Benzinga

Tesla Fremont 09/29 | uploaded by Youtube channel: 在曠野遇見神*

*Which is pronounced "Zài kuàngyě yùjiàn shén", and translates to "Meet god in the wilderness"

Cheers!

P.S. Many thanks again to Drone pilot @gabeincal for your excellent coverage of the Fremont factory over the past year, especially during the critical Gigapress expansion. Much appreciated!

 

[adiggs]

Lane departure warnings affect your score. You slow down before the curve. If you are "surprised" by a curve then you've already missed the point. No amount of creative cheating is going to help you if you drive around not paying attention to the world around you.

Lots of solutions on your list are likely to affect your score as much as the problem you are suggesting they solve.

I flipped the switch on earlier this week. Haven't seen my safety score but having read briefly the blog about how it's scored, I've decided that I'm just going to drive like I regularly drive. I suspect that'll mean that I won't be in the first wave of invites and might not be in a wave of invites for awhile. But the corner cases where the safety score punishes safe driving - I also won't get my car dinged, only my score.

 

[adiggs]

Since we're on cusp of Q3 numbers.....If Tesla produces 250k or more, I swear to the heavens that anytime I see someone say "chip supply" or "parts supply" concerns I'm just going to call them a "nincompoop".......No context needed (This mostly applies to Twitter )

Chip/Part Supply concern has become the new "demand" concern and believe it or not, it's actually more annoying than the "demand" concerns.

Every time someone's delivery date gets pushed back - Chip shortage

Every time the delivery estimates for new orders gets farther out - Chip shortage

Every time Fremont or Shanghai takes a day off - Chip shortage

I've begun wondering if the chip shortage is a more palatable thing to say than "consumers don't want what we got".

 

[Knightshade]

Lane departure warnings affect your score

They actually don't.

Safety Score Beta | Tesla Support

The Safety Score Beta is an assessment of your driving behavior based on several metrics called Safety Factors. These are combined to estimate the likelihood that your driving could result in a future collision. We combine your daily Safety Scores (up to 30 days) to calculate the aggregated...

www.tesla.com

There's multiple threads about the score and how it works over in the FSD section-- but it legitimately does promote some odd driving if you're trying to max your score right now.

Which is probably part of why Tesla is clear the current formula is beta and likely will change over time.

 

[Knightshade]

I've begun wondering if the chip shortage is a more palatable thing to say than "consumers don't want what we got".

That would be a more credible theory if there weren't also chip shortages in tons of other industries where demand is very demonstrable huge (GPUs for example).


What we're seeing here isn't legacy making up an excuse- their excuse is 100% true.

What we're seeing is Tesla not having the same problems because they can actually adapt to use whatever's available instead of ONLY being able to use "Specific Bosch Chip #324 we speced 9 years ago and don't understand how it works or how to change anything on"

 

[aronth5]

“Sure I ran them over, but I kept my Safety Score at 100 so I can use FSD Beta!”

said the man in jail.

Funny, but Tesla and Elon are going to get exactly the type of driver they want for FSD. A driver who will monitor FSD and their surroundings insuring they will take over quickly and avoid accidents. Its no surprise Elon pointed out there are 2k FSD beta drivers with no accidents in the past year. Drivers that don't care about their Safety score probably won't monitor FSD as well as they should and Tesla knows that.

 

[BornToFly]

Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)

The problem I'm finding is the score is not accurate AT ALL. I live in the mountains. The highways have curves. I'm doing the speed limit and have red for cornering. Yesterday I was using Autopilot and had a phantom braking event with nothing in front of me. Got a red score for front collision warning....

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Autopilot loses its strongest rival as GM halts Super Cruise rollout

Tesla Autopilot’s most formidable rival from legacy auto is on a break, with General Motors confirming that its flagship driver-assist system, Super Cruise, is unavailable for now. The culprit behind this is, quite unsurprisingly, the ongoing semiconductor shortage. The halt of Super Cruise’s...

www.teslarati.com

View attachment 716693

Market leader must have seen tons of FSD footage on you tube

If you are at a point where you cannot handle steep turns on highway (like Ford), closing shop might be better use of $$

 

[Mengy]

Thus far Tesla has done a stellar job of developing and executing fast workarounds for such issues. That very fast reaction and manufacturing change to cope with unforeseen events distinguishes Tesla (and SpaceX) from nearly everyone else.

This right here is one of the aspects of Tesla which impresses me the most. I worked in manufacturing for four decades and the speed and swiftness which Tesla reacts to supply chain issues is astonishing.

 

[Krugerrand]

Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)

If only half the brain power used to find fault in the world at every turn were used toward good, positive thought, I might actually believe we had a chance.

 

[ammulder]

If only half the brain power used to find fault in the world at every turn were used toward good, positive thought, I might actually believe we had a chance.

You misunderstand -- I'm applying my brain power to receiving the FSD Beta as soon as possible!

 

[Ogre]

This right here is one of the aspects of Tesla which impresses me the most. I worked in manufacturing for four decades and the speed and swiftness which Tesla reacts to supply chain issues is astonishing.

Big auto has already suggested this is a negative.

From an article about how far behind the technology curve they are:

Most systems in cars are safety-critical and need to perform in practically every situation regardless of temperature, humidity, vibrations, and even minor road debris. With so much at stake, tried and true is better than new and improved.

 

[Tyler34]

This was debunked the last time we had the "Troys numbers suck" conversation.

AD made the same, untrue, claim- and Troys own numbers that were posted going back years debunked it. Troy provided his start and end numbers by quarter, and the real number for each.

He was wrong to the HIGH side at start of quarter more often than the other way around (though it was like a 60/40 split)


I agree his overall numbers and results aren't awesome- but the bias people keep insisting is there simply isn't.

I just dont understand why we have to discuss this daily in this thread. I wish we could file "bashing troys numbers" right there with "anything gojo says" in the same cabinet as the other dead horses.

 

[lascavarian]

I've begun wondering if the chip shortage is a more palatable thing to say than "consumers don't want what we got".

I think there is something to this sentiment. "Chip shortage" has 2 functions now, it explains falling sales of traditional auto makers (as well as supporting pricing). Similarly, there is a bit of separation of Tesla related to chips where Tesla is not credited with besting the other traditional makers via some intimation that larger volume increases the impact of sourcing chips. None of this holds up very well IMO.

Tesla kicks a$$ at manufacturing. It is trench warfare for them and they are experienced with it. They have learned to deliver product at a level of survival instinct effort. Hats off!!

As for today, volume seems the question. When volume surrenders to fear and uncertainty then direction drifts. Next week is another battle with new facts to steer direction IMO.

 

[MaxPain]

I'm curious on people's thoughts regarding the Model S and X refresh delays. I've been waiting for my S since 4/1 and my date keeps getting pushed. Is it because parts (I'm thinking those AMD chips are hard to come by) or is it that it is taking more time to ramp up production on the new line or are they pumping them out as much as the 3/Y but there is a huge backlog?

 

[adiggs]

I think there is something to this sentiment. "Chip shortage" has 2 functions now, it explains falling sales of traditional auto makers (as well as supporting pricing). Similarly, there is a bit of separation of Tesla related to chips where Tesla is not credited with besting the other traditional makers via some intimation that larger volume increases the impact of sourcing chips. None of this holds up very well IMO.

Tesla kicks a$$ at manufacturing. It is trench warfare for them and they are experienced with it. They have learned to deliver product at a level of survival instinct effort. Hats off!!

As for today, volume seems the question. When volume surrenders to fear and uncertainty then direction drifts. Next week is another battle with new facts to steer direction IMO.

I'm also starting to wonder if Tesla is getting preferential treatment from some of their suppliers (such as the chip suppliers). Relatively small volumes today from a company that looks like its going to be the volume leader before too awful long. For the suppliers play a bit of the long game and make sure they're in good with an obvious candidate. And the actual cost is relatively small - Tesla is still a pretty small buyer from a units perspective.

 

[GleanerC]

I don’t post very often but have been reading the majority of the comments here on the Investors Forum for a few years. I can’t express how helpful this forum has been to me and what a significant difference this has made for our family.

As of today my wife transitions to half-time at work with her full retirement date being the end of this year. I get to step into early retirement this next week. We were also able to purchase our first Tesla, a Model Y, recently, we’re thrilled with it. We’ve been committed to the transition to a more sustainable energy future for a long time, having installed solar in 2012 and driving a Chevy Volt since 2013 among many other things. What a super bonus to not only to be able to invest in a company that is working towards this future but then to be rewarded with the returns we’ve received.

None of this would have been possible had it not been for the vast majority of posters here who so freely share their thoughts and time. Thank you. You helped us develop and hone our investment thesis and stick with it through both stock price highs and lows.

Thank you to the moderators who give of their time and try to keep us on track. (must feel like trying to herd cats most of the time) Thank you to many of the frequent posters, both present, and past, who bring so much to this board. I certainly feel I’ve gained an education over the last few years.

Very grateful. Thank you.

 

[lascavarian]

In the end Tesla can choose who they want (among those that want) for the beta using the criteria they want to use. And I'll get to join in the fun when I get to join in. As a long time investor I hope for sooner than later in my case - I want hands on experience with this component of my investment sooner than later. I might need to buy moar!

This mostly matches my sentiment. Who am I to judge their selection criteria. They seem to be doing fine and progress is more evident than in the past.

What I am beginning to ponder is when the addition of features will be final? They have just added "reverse" as a feature. I expect at some time they will have to add control of the charge port door for autonomous charging IMO. Anything else required for FSD?

 

[lascavarian]

I'm also starting to wonder if Tesla is getting preferential treatment from some of their suppliers (such as the chip suppliers). Relatively small volumes today from a company that looks like its going to be the volume leader before too awful long. For the suppliers play a bit of the long game and make sure they're in good with an obvious candidate. And the actual cost is relatively small - Tesla is still a pretty small buyer from a units perspective.

It could be supplier foresight that is helping Tesla get some preference based on accelerating buying.

Although it has been a while, my experience is that "great" engineers have a bit of a love affair with the spec books that lay out the features and abilities of the latest chip designs. Others just toss them in the can. If you can make the effort to use the latest products then you "may" get the benefit of the sales curve on your side. Additionally, prices are likely to fall.

If OTOH, you just buy what is cheapest, you may find you are on the short end of production because you are buying a design that is being closed out and prices may even go the other way on decreasing supply.

 

[22522]

You misunderstand -- I'm applying my brain power to receiving the FSD Beta as soon as possible!

The problem is solved with following distance.