Overnight, we saw this rumor: (more details now follow in blog post below)
It appears that Tesla is now making the necessary preparations for a serious ramp of its Model 3 and Model Y production in Gigafactory Shanghai next year. As per recent reports from China, Tesla has reportedly placed an order for 45 GWh worth of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from...
www.teslarati.com
I think blog author Simon Alvarez does get his math slightly wrong: new CATL bty packs for SR+ are 60 KWh each, so a 45 GWh bty pack order is more likely for ~750K Models 3/Y in 2022.
Still, that's on top of MiC long range 3/Y production, which use NMC chemistry in LG bty cells. A separate report says Giga Nevada will produce 40 GWh of bty cells in 2022 (although that will include some TE products like powerwall).
It's also unclear if all 750K LFP packs from CATL are intended for vehicle production in Shanghai, or if a portion of those packs will be shipped to N. America for use in, for example, the Hertz LFP Model 3 fleet order (that's 100K packs needed right there). Those could be part of this order, or extra to it.
Either way, it looks like Tesla has orders with 3rd-party bty suppliers sufficient to produce over 1.5M vehicles in 2022 (which could be ~70% growth vs 2021).
Then there's Tesla Energy... Good Times!
Cheers!
EDIT: Here's the Google Translation results from the
src article in Korean:
36Kr Exclusive | Tesla orders 45GWh batteries from CATL, sales are expected to double next year | Li Qin (·6 hours ago) | Focus on Battery battle
Tesla, which has passed the trillion-dollar market value mark, is still accelerating.
"36 Kr learned from a number of people familiar with the matter that Tesla has already booked 45GWh lithium iron phosphate batteries from China's leading power battery company Ningde Times for next year’s sales plan, mainly for Model 3 and Model Y models.
"According to Tesla's official information, Model 3 and Model Y equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries are both standard battery life versions. The former has a battery capacity of 55 degrees (kWh) and the latter has a battery capacity of 60 degrees. Based on this preliminary calculation, 45GWh of battery orders will correspond to nearly 800,000 cars. This has surpassed Tesla's total global sales in the first three quarters of this year. As of the third quarter of this year, Tesla had sold 627.35 million vehicles worldwide.
"Another industry source told 36 krypton that in 2022, Tesla's Nevada battery factory will also expand production to more than 40GWh. Coupled with the supply of Panasonic and LG Chem, Tesla will sell at least 1.5 million cars in 2022.
"On Tuesday, Tesla's market value exceeded $1 trillion. In the past year, the company's market value has nearly doubled due to the rapid increase in car sales and profits. A few days ago, the car rental company Hertz placed an order for 100,000 cars from Tesla, pushing the latter into the trillion-dollar club.
"Of course, Tesla under Musk was never satisfied with the set goals. The source revealed to 36 krypton that in addition to ordering 45GWh batteries from CATL, Tesla also plans to make additional orders, "both parties are already in talks."
"In response to the above information, Ningde Times stated to 36 krypton that it would not comment.
"Tesla’s earliest lithium iron phosphate model was the Model 3 standard battery life version produced by the Shanghai plant in China. Starting this year, the Model Y standard battery life version produced by the Shanghai plant also began to use lithium iron phosphate batteries.
"Since then, at the end of August this year, lithium iron phosphate models began to be sold in the United States. Tesla announced that American users can also choose lithium iron phosphate battery models when buying the standard battery life version of the Model 3. It is reported that the American standard battery life Model 3 with lithium iron phosphate batteries has a battery life that has dropped from 263 miles to 253 miles, while the price remains unchanged at 39,900 US dollars.
"At the third-quarter earnings call in October, Tesla officially announced that the standard battery life Model 3 and Moderl Y models worldwide will use lithium iron phosphate batteries.
"Ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are the two core technical routes in the power battery industry. Compared with ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have inferior energy density and charge-discharge performance, but have better safety and stability, and lower cost, so they are favored by entry-level vehicles.
"Especially in the past two years, companies such as CATL, BYD and Weilai have gradually improved the system energy density and winter low temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries through structural improvements and mixing solutions. This also makes the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries blow out.
"According to the domestic power battery installation data in September, the ternary lithium battery was installed at 6.14GWh, and the total installed lithium iron phosphate battery was 9.54Wh. The lithium iron phosphate battery was ahead of the ternary battery in terms of installed capacity for three consecutive months.
"The cost and application technology of batteries are becoming mature, which is also driving the rapid growth of electric vehicles. Tesla's million-level sales forecast is a great example. In addition, according to 36Kr, domestic auto companies, including Weilai, Great Wall and other auto companies, are also planning to increase battery orders."
[End of Article]
