Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Yes I'm here thinking that with the taxes Elon didn't have to pay today but did so to make good with his intent, he lost shares he didn't need to. So if capital gain increase in the future with the stock price staying the same, Elon would be in the positive. If stock price increase way more than capital gains tax %, then Elon came out negative here. Someone check this math.

Math is off. Two senarios (assuming all shares are eventually sold):
Sell share with basis of $6 now (1030-6)@ 20%
Sell share with basis of $1030 later (SP-1030)@ >20%
Or
Sell share with basis of $1030 now (1030-1030)@20%
Sell share with basis of $6 later (SP-6)@>20%
Basically, he can reset share basis now before an increase in tax that will be applied to the gain above 1030 regardless, eliminating the tax increase on $1024 or so.

If he was selling 10% of shares and not 10% of value (basically the same anyway), then if the tax rate goes up it's better to sell old shares now. If it stays flat it doesn't matter (but he gets more cash now).

And, if I had to guess, I would say it's more likely than not that Elon's sales would end before that.

I would also guess that the sales might finish off with a bang rather than taper off. If I was looking to buy more shares here I would be inclined to jump in if it was starting to dump hard figuring that might be the grand finale. Kinda like a fireworks show in reverse.

Some fireworks shows combine finale and dump and start...

TSLA is only up 20X since the low in 2018. If you wanted 30X, you had to wait until 2019...

TSLA is like a game of chicken with the shortzes.

Cheers!

Yeah, second base camp was a long bumpy slog:

 

[StealthP3D]

Lack of *additional* pain shop for new production lines not currently planned. They could build a second paint shop if they really wanted but it highlights why CT will be the 2nd vehicle coming out of GigaAustin (addressing OPs comment) - There would need to be major changes to the factory if they are to build a different make than the CT after the Y is ramped.

Expansion of painting capacity would be done in lock-step with expansion of general assembly lines for models that require paint. It's true that expansion of Cybertruck production lines could be done more quickly and with much less capital investment than models that require stamping/painting but I'm confident that lack of a paint shop will not hold back expanding production of models that require stamping/painting to meet demand.

Thanks for pointing this out - maybe the next new model revealed could be a Cyber hatchback with exoskeleton using thinner cold-rolled stainless steel. I always thought the DeLorean looked pretty cool - it was just over-weight, over-priced and under-powered (and has the fatal flaw of ICE).

 

[StealthP3D]

Interested to hear what others think about this dude’s predictions regarding the psychology of buyers new to the stock market. (Discussed at the 8:00 minute mark).

Is it actually likely that the stock price disconnects from the company fundamentals? I’m a bit freaked by the possibility. If the stock gets ahead of itself, goes nuts, then it would be hard to resist taking some profit. But then, what if it stays disconnected? There would be no opportunity to buy back in. Logic fails when there’s a failure of logic.

Exactly! That's why one doesn't sell a great company based on over-valuation. To be honest, there is a point where one should sell based on extreme over-valuation but it's best to give that decision a VERY wide berth because of the crazy scenario you mention. And you had better be very familiar with the company's prospects as far as the eye can see. A very high valuation could be predicated upon a high likelihood of strong growth in multiple sectors for years to come so it wouldn't necessarily need to be due to a failure of logic. Unbelievable things actually do happen from time to time.

I think the psychological principle he talks about is very real but I'm not sure there are enough monied investors that think that way to have as large of an effect that he seems to be envisioning. The price could definitely get to $3000 by the end of next year, and a 5-1 split would tend to increase valuations somewhat but I think it could also get there without a split if Tesla is continuing to do amazing things.

A lot of these super bullish predictions depend upon the bull market staying mostly intact. At some point the technological disruption that is happening to many industries will likely upset the market but it's unclear if the winners will shoot to the sky or be taken down somewhat with the disruption they caused.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The ultimate in customer service amenities, from the penultimate provider of space-based internet:

Tesla begins installing Starlink satellite dishes at Superchargers [Update]

Following a promise by CEO Elon Musk that all Superchargers will have free WiFi access, Tesla has installed Starlink satellite dishes at 2 Supercharger stations in the US, and possibly more. One of the Supercharger […]

driveteslacanada.ca

According to Brandon, the Starlink dish was providing a signal, but it was called ‘Tesla Service’.

Based on Tesla’s Find Us map, there is no Service Center within 20 miles of the Supercharger, indicating the company might still be testing the feature with Mobile Service technicians before rolling it out to more locations.

Cheers!

 

[dhanson865]

You admit that Tesla can sell every Long Range/Performance they can make so why would they sell a lower margin variant (Standard Range) that is more likely to purchased by people who don't drive big miles (since it would have less range)? We tend to look at the success of the transition to EV's from the perspective of how many ICE cars are replaced but isn't the most meaningful metric how many ICE miles are displaced by EV miles? Additionally, the more margin Tesla makes, the more they are able to re-invest into other campaigns to speed the mission.

Last I heard a larger addressable market is a good thing. You can sell every Model S and X you make right now but you can sell more Model 3 and Y than you do S and X. That logic continues into trims like Performance vs LR vs MR vs SR. Every time you offer a cheaper version you open yourself up to a bigger market.

Then you just get into discussions about when to move downmarket and expand. Heck I thought the context was clear we were talking about what to do when Austin has ramped up 4680 production. With extra overall quantity isn't that the time to look at extending the addressable market?

It takes time to change the production mix. You need to be able to adjust before the orders reach parity.

 

[Ogre]

I think Cybertruck production will start well before the end of next year. The big question mark is how fast it will ramp. If I was putting money on it I would try to get 2 to 1 odds that the first deliveries would be the beginning of Q2 next year. I do agree that new orders will have a long wait simply due to how many pre-orders there are. But one likely scenario is that 4680 ramp and Cybertruck ramp go off with a bang and Tesla hits very high production volume to start off 2023.

I sure hope you are right.

I’m a little skeptical about Q2 deliveries, but I’d be over the moon if that were the case. That would put mine sometime towards the end of the year or early 2023.

We need the Gigapress online plus Texas 4680 production online before they can start ramping up Cybertruck production.

 

[Buckminster]

As long as my CT doesn’t leave me for my wife.

Unless your wife likes taking really long romantic drives (with zero unprotected left turns) you should be fine.

It's the TeslaBot we all need to worry about. That dude has skills, you know what I'm sayin?

 

[mltv]

Unless your wife likes taking really long romantic drives (with zero unprotected left turns) you should be fine.

It's the TeslaBot we all need to worry about. That dude has skills, you know what I'm sayin?

What if you get a not a dude TeslaBot

 

[PokerFJÆS]

Will Elon claim the record for highest tax bill ever?

“Steve Cohen had to pay $3 billion in taxes.

And that is the largest amount of money ever paid in taxes by an individual.”

Who Paid The Largest Individual Tax Bill Of All Time?

No one likes paying income taxes. What's the worst tax bill you've ever gotten? As a freelancer, mine aren't pretty but they are nowhere near some...

www.celebritynetworth.com

 

[BitJam]

A billionaire paying more taxes on purpose. The first in all human history. Elon will be remembered as the greatest human of all time.

Like a Valentine Michael Smith but in reverse?

 

[Lessmog]

Lack of *additional* pain shop for new production lines not currently planned. They could build a second paint shop if they really wanted but it highlights why CT will be the 2nd vehicle coming out of GigaAustin (addressing OPs comment) - There would need to be major changes to the factory if they are to build a different make than the CT after the Y is ramped.

Bah. Pain shop is for Mach-e-sists.
(Sorry.)

 

[Lessmog]

Last I heard a larger addressable market is a good thing. You can sell every Model S and X you make right now but you can sell more Model 3 and Y than you do S and X. That logic continues into trims like Performance vs LR vs MR vs SR. Every time you offer a cheaper version you open yourself up to a bigger market.

Then you just get into discussions about when to move downmarket and expand. Heck I thought the context was clear we were talking about what to do when Austin has ramped up 4680 production. With extra overall quantity isn't that the time to look at extending the addressable market?

It takes time to change the production mix. You need to be able to adjust before the orders reach parity.

Doesn't matter since you still can't sell any more than you make. When production is the Limiting Factor (TM) why not optimize for margin / revenue? This does not mean it is wrong to enhance sales by introducing lower price models as long as that won't cannibalize production of higher margin ones, for instance using different batteries. Not a new thought at Tesla HQ.

 

[mars_or_bust]

A nice but ultimately futile gesture. The ones who have agendas will still scream. Nothing will ever be good enough for them and that is completely intentional.

It will probably shift the narrative by a sufficient amount to make it worth it. The lamentations of Reich, the UAW and similar ilk will sound more and more hollow, and will have less and less effect. Thus less focus on cancelling FSD, on raising taxes for the rich, on specific anti Tesla laws and initiatives. Because of this, long term wise this will be a net financially positive move also for Elon personally, as Tesla will likely expand faster.

 

[SO16]

Will Elon claim the record for highest tax bill ever?

“Steve Cohen had to pay $3 billion in taxes.

And that is the largest amount of money ever paid in taxes by an individual.”

Who Paid The Largest Individual Tax Bill Of All Time?

No one likes paying income taxes. What's the worst tax bill you've ever gotten? As a freelancer, mine aren't pretty but they are nowhere near some...

www.celebritynetworth.com

Bill gates has paid over 10 billion (in total.)

I think Elon will have the record for taxes paid (in total) for any individual. Perhaps Elon is aiming for that. Not only the record total, but to do that in ONE year.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1192188119417704448

 

[samppa]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1459667633419128833

 

[CorneliusXX]

I sure hope you are right.

I’m a little skeptical about Q2 deliveries, but I’d be over the moon if that were the case. That would put mine sometime towards the end of the year or early 2023.

We need the Gigapress online plus Texas 4680 production online before they can start ramping up Cybertruck production.

IIRC Elon said they won't start the ramp of CT until the Y has been ramped. So even if Tesla work out all the new manufacturing techniques for CT, production won't start in earnest until the Y line is working smoothly. That should give us some clarity on progress as we follow the production numbers in H1 next year.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Will Elon claim the record for highest tax bill ever?

“Steve Cohen had to pay $3 billion in taxes.

And that is the largest amount of money ever paid in taxes by an individual.”

Who Paid The Largest Individual Tax Bill Of All Time?

No one likes paying income taxes. What's the worst tax bill you've ever gotten? As a freelancer, mine aren't pretty but they are nowhere near some...

www.celebritynetworth.com

Elon does like superlatives.

 

[samppa]

News from Glasgow: EU will ban sales of new fossil fuel cars from 2035. Only zero-emission allowed.
This has been ratified and signed by all member states.

 

[mongo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1459667633419128833

Yeah, based on volume, they cannot all be recent option shares, but this comparisons reads to me that, as many as can be, are. Via the magic of LIFO or direct lot matching vs FIFO, Elon could pair the recent sales against the option shares thus effectively making them the sold ones even though that was not part of the original 10b5-1.
End result: still making a statement and paying a lot of tax, but maximizing cash return in the present.

If execution counts as a purchase, I think this results in a deferred wash sale tax carryover due to the drop in stock price.

 

[CorneliusXX]

@Troy apparently has MIIT data from China confirming an increase in M3 production in October beyond what is expected from known manufacturing capacity. It will be interesting to see if increased production is verified.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1459783567358279681