Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

Chief Bottle Washer planning for a recession shows great management. This will ensure Tesla stays nimble and strong, and avoids being blindsided when, if, a recession does happen. Exactly the type of management style for Tesla to benefit and rise above the dust/rest.

What a fantastic 2021 for TSLA. Perspective:
12/31/11 - $5.71
12/31/12 - $6.77 +18.6%
12/31/13 - $30.09 +444.5%
12/31/14 - $44.48 +47.8%
12/31/15 - $48.00 +7.9%
12/30/16 - $42.74 -11.0%
12/29/17 - $62.24 +45.6%
12/31/18 - $66.56 +9.3%
12/31/19 - $83.67 +125.5%
12/30/20 - 705.67 +843.4%
12/31/2021 - $1,056.78 +49.8%

Wishing everyone and their family a very happy, healthy and safe 2022. That is all that really matters.

PS. @Curt Renz, we are all counting on you next year. A lot of pressure, fo'sure, but we know you are up to the challenge! I won't have time next year to track Tesla daily although will be sure to read all your posts monthly. Hoping it will be music to my ears.

 

[woodisgood]

A quick question about the proposed EV tax incentives. If we're going to give people $7500 or more to buy an EV, why wouldn't they make it even better for the environment and treat it like a cash for clunkers type thing. You want the $7500 rebate, then you have to trade in a gas vehicle. It seemed like the program worked well as a trade in on fuel efficient gas cars. Why not do the same with EVs?

Thoughts? What am I not considering here?

I agree…there should be an incentive to get gas cars completely off the road before they reach EOL themselves. Maybe one day Tesla will have enough money to just buy them from people and blast them to space.
(Ok, not really into space, recycle responsibly of course)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

My hunch is we don't see a run up next week even despite fantastic Q4 production numbers. I think this market is declining overall and TSLA will simply contract it's PE ratio rather than move the share price much, if at all. The MM's want to keep it down and I think they will.

The P/E will contract a lot just from repeating Q3 earnings. If Tesla does do 300k in deliveries, you're talking about a P/E contraction of a huge amount + the Forward P/E would drop well under 100. I don't see that happening.

 

[EVMeister]

Earlier this year (March), a bunch of us made predictions on what the share price would be at the end of the year. I'd like to remind you all that the "wisdom of the crowd" average was $1462.74. We're not quite there yet nor are we at the end of the year, but it will be interesting to see how close we come.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Did not find the actual time - so will just be monitoring CNBC for the news. No trades to make today, unless SP drop violently - and that will be to buy index funds and that can be done just before 4 pm :) https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm 230pm eastern

teslamotorsclub.com

So... These were our stock price predictions for year end, made in March. The stock closed at $1,056.78 for 2021. If I'm not mistaken, @cjkosh was closest at $1065.00. Shoutout to @Sofie , @Buckminster,@Chenkers who were also pretty close (within $100 which is nothing for TSLA)! A few were pretty close but a bit pessimistic as well. Happy New Year to all and well done for holding TSLA - to a successful 2022.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The P/E will contract a lot just from repeating Q3 earnings. If Tesla does do 300k in deliveries, you're talking about a P/E contraction of a huge amount + the Forward P/E would drop well under 100. I don't see that happening.

I mean if Elon causes the recession soon, I don't see TSLA's value staying up while everything else declines. It's inevitable that a recession drags the value of everything downwards, so we would definitely see a forward PE below 100 if that happened.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I mean if Elon causes the recession soon, I don't see TSLA's value staying up while everything else declines. It's inevitable that a recession drags the value of everything downwards, so we would definitely see a forward PE below 100 if that happened.

Call me crazy but I don't see a recession happening next week....or next month.....or next quarter

Could a recession happen in 8-12 months? Sure though I don't think it will. But by then Tesla's Forward P/E would be under 50 if the stock stayed at this price.

 

[Nocturnal]

Call me crazy but I don't see a recession happening next week....or next month.....or next quarter

Could a recession happen in 8-12 months? Sure though I don't think it will. But by then Tesla's Forward P/E would be under 60 if the stock stayed at this price.

I can't see how it would be so soon (from Elon's comments). People have money to spend and companies are ramping like crazy to take that money.

My bear case is that companies overshoot and we wind up with a supply glut, new jobs are cut, companies discount heavily to move product, and we have a mild recession while things even out. This would happen in early 2023 I think.

Bull case is that supply chain challenges continue and that oversupply can't happen so things ramp slow and steady and we see solid growth with inflation calming down until we get the hangover from this massive government spending. 2024?

 

[StealthP3D]

Closing cross is shooting for $1050 call wall. Ugh, hedgies...see ya in 2022!

Happy New Year to all TMC members and guests!

TSLA returned an incredible 50% in 2021, nearly doubling the 27% return of the S&P 500. Tesla helped lift the return of the S&P 500 substantially. Here's a toast to Tesla continuing to show Wall Street how a well-run company uses real innovation and hard work to create superior products and value for its customers, and wealth and prosperity to its shareholders and employees!

Congrats to a fantastic year to all TSLA longs! And a huge thanks to all Tesla employees and management for a year well done!

 

[deffu]

Call me crazy but I don't see a recession happening next week....or next month.....or next quarter

Could a recession happen in 8-12 months? Sure though I don't think it will. But by then Tesla's Forward P/E would be under 50 if the stock stayed at this price.

If things line up correctly, pd beat, Austin production announcement, we will see A massive run up. If just few thousands above whisper and macro bad, I don’t see a huge run up happening looking at past pd events

 

[ggr]

Mod: Deleted off topic posts about the state of journalism, at least partly because it started to be acrimonious. No more. --ggr

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I can't see how it would be so soon (from Elon's comments). People have money to spend and companies are ramping like crazy to take that money.

My bear case is that companies overshoot and we wind up with a supply glut, new jobs are cut, companies discount heavily to move product, and we have a mild recession while things even out. This would happen in early 2023 I think.

Bull case is that supply chain challenges continue and that oversupply can't happen so things ramp slow and steady and we see solid growth with inflation calming down until we get the hangover from this massive government spending. 2024?

I won't get too much into this cause I don't want to sidetrack but I think we are, and have been, and will continue to be in a rolling recession in different areas of the economy. Fundamental shifts in where people are spending their money and time which is more and more on technology and less on the more traditional aspects of the economy which is inherently deflationary. Technology takes up more of our time and costs us less to use to fill up that time. Good for technology and certain industries, bad for others.

Despite that fact that millions have left the workforce and a large part of the workface has transitioned to working from home (which won't go back), the savings in households have held up and households are not nearly overextended in debt like back in 2008......even though inflation has been spiking.

You're going to have rolling long term recessions in industries where technology, whether through the use for pleasure or for work, is going to cause job loss and contraction in output. So I see a overall economy that is going to be at extremes going forward. Huge economic booms in some industries/sectors while at the same time having massive recessions in others.

Luckily for us, Tesla is going to be riding a huge economic boom for the next 10 years thanks to the change in renewable energy, autonomy, and more.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Well, the 2021 season is over and the home team ended with an uninspiring 4 game losing streak that followed a 4 game winning streak. After a mid season slump where they played below 0.500 for about 3 months, with a low of 8 games below, they turned the season around to finish a very respectable 20 games above 0.500. While many jumped off the bandwagon mid season, the loyal season ticket holders knew they'd turn it around.

They finished the year up almost 50%, which is another solid year for Team Tesla. Next year is looking even better with their two new draft picks from Berlin and Austin joining the team soon.

It's interesting that over the course of the year, the absolute value of the average gain and average loss was only 33 cents apart.

Today
Score:	1,070.34
Margin of W/L:	-15.85
Attendance:	13,428,552
High - Low:	42.40
Final Season Stats
Final Record:	136-116
Total margin of wins:	2,645.58
Total margin of losses:	-2,294.47
YTD gain/loss:	351.11	49.8%
Price/52 week high	86.1%
Best Win:	115.18	Oct 25
Worst Loss:	-139.44	Nov 9
Last 10:	5-5
Streak:	L4
Avg margin of victory:	19.45
Avg margin of defeat:	-19.78
Avg Volume:	24,387,799
Avg Volume of Last 10:	24,101,789
Avg High - Low:	34.47
Avg H - L of Last 10:	47.89

 

[Phobi]

Picked up some final New Years gifts before close

It’s been a strong year for us all in the know. I could not think of a better way to start next year, than by rewarding us keeners on how far OFF the mark the mainstream really is.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469576295591907332

We’re only getting started folks.

All the best to you and yours!

 

[MikeC]

Up a few bucks AH, maybe because Troy updated his delivery number to 299k right after close.

 

[fiveten]

So this year I have bought TSLA $1084 and have sold TSLA at 729….maybe next year I will do better, lol

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, the 2021 season is over and the home team ended with an uninspiring 4 game losing streak that followed a 4 game winning streak. After a mid season slump where they played below 0.500 for about 3 months, with a low of 8 games below, they turned the season around to finish a very respectable 20 games above 0.500. While many jumped off the bandwagon mid season, the loyal season ticket holders knew they'd turn it around.

They finished the year up almost 50%, which is another solid year for Team Tesla. Next year is looking even better with their two new draft picks from Berlin and Austin joining the team soon.

It's interesting that over the course of the year, the absolute value of the average gain and average loss was only 33 cents apart.

Today
Score:	1,070.34
Margin of W/L:	-15.85
Attendance:	13,428,552
High - Low:	42.40
Final Season Stats
Final Record:	136-116
otal margin of wins:	2,645.58
Total margin of losses:	-2,294.47
YTD gain/loss:	351.11	49.8%
Price/52 week high	86.1%
Best Win:	115.18	Oct 25
Worst Loss:	-139.44	Nov 9
Last 10:	5-5
Streak:	L4
Avg margin of victory:	19.45
Avg margin of defeat:	-19.78
Avg Volume:	24,387,799
Avg Volume of Last 10:	24,101,789
Avg High - Low:	34.47
Avg H - L of Last 10:	47.89

New Year's Day headlines:

Musk Fails to Deliver on Promise of 50% Growth in 2021

With TSLA shares returning only 49.8% for all of 2021, Elon Musk, the erratic CEO of Tesla, has once again failed to deliver on important promises to shareholders.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What's everyone guesses for the "product updates" on the Q4 earnings call that Elon said will be disclosed?

I think it's likely:

- Plaid or Extended LR Model Y from Austin (I think it'll be the only trim model from Austin that gets delivered in Q1/Q2)
- Semi official start of production/deliveries
- I don't think the product updates will have anything to do with Cybertruck

 

[dhanson865]

Doesn't Tesla make their own panels? Or do they buy them from a third party and do installation and software?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476966221887291404

My understanding is that Tesla installs way more panels than they make so they focus the ones with the best cosmetics for installing on houses and use whatever they can get for industrial installs.

 

[Singuy]

My hunch is we don't see a run up next week even despite fantastic Q4 production numbers. I think this market is declining overall and TSLA will simply contract it's PE ratio rather than move the share price much, if at all. The MM's want to keep it down and I think they will.

Still looking for a year where the market declined and interest rate is at 0. When you find it, you can let me know.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Up a few bucks AH, maybe because Troy updated his delivery number to 299k right after close.

View attachment 750557

Troy is afraid of the round 300k number, haha. I wonder if we can break 900k for the year or not. It won't be long until we find out I guess.

I'm already looking forward to the headlines: "Tesla fails to deliver 1,000,000 vehicles in 2021, skeptics say bankruptcy is imminent!"