Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tomorrowman]

Q: Is it possible to win Time Person of the Year two years in a row?

If Tesla bring out a highly efficient HVAC system for this rapidly warming world, reveal the £25K Tesla, start cybertruck production and get the whole starship thing working - maybe

 

[wtlloyd]

Before anyone asks, futures open 6pm ET, 3pm PT. Should be interesting?

 

[juanmedina]

$1145 strike call holders, what is the plan for tomorrow ?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Holy moly, that’s way higher than most expected. And that is with partial unwinding of the wave. Tomorrow will be interesting for stock. 2022 should be amazing.

And lots of people deferring delivery until 2022.

 

[SN_8]

Fantastic numbers and fantastic year. Congrats longs. No chance the stock doesn't react positively on Monday.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’m still processing these numbers…….I haven’t even gotten to think about how I want to play the 1100/1150 calls I picked up at close on Friday.

Could be looking at some serious movements on Monday with these results.

The real question is do I sell on the initial pop or wait for an announcement of start of production at Austin (and possibly Berlin) that could cause a 2nd rally midweek

 

[wtlloyd]

That is such a blowout number that the market should move pretty heavily… I didn’t expect nearly that much.

Not only does that impact q4, but the 22 estimates of ~1.2-1.3m are comically low at this point. All firms are going to have to raise 22 production to at least 1.4m and should be in the range of 1.5-1.6m. That should be worth ~200 to the share price by Wall Street’s own valuation. The setup is here for ~1400 after earnings.

I voted 1.6-1.7 million in the poll. I don't think I'm overly optimistic. I just can't believe Berlin and Austin will ramp slowly, they are following Shanghai lead and one thing for sure, Tesla fully utilize their learning curve.

 

[betstarship]

Some charts:

Deliveries broken down by model based on P&D report

Deliveries vs. Share Price (last day of quarter)

Reported Installed Capacity (only in Earnings Reports) vs. Actual Deliveries...they broke the barrier for how much they think they're allowed to build in Q4/2021 based on the reported Installed Capacity since a year ago Q4/2020.

That previous charts, but with share price.

 

[HG Wells]

That is such a blowout number that the market should move pretty heavily… I didn’t expect nearly that much.

Not only does that impact q4, but the 22 estimates of ~1.2-1.3m are comically low at this point. All firms are going to have to raise 22 production to at least 1.4m and should be in the range of 1.5-1.6m. That should be worth ~200 to the share price by Wall Street’s own valuation. The setup is here for ~1400 after earnings.

Wait a minute. ONLY 200 up ?
So my Jan 7 1400 is worthless ? /S

Much better than I hoped.
I did buy a lottery ticket. Jan 7 1080.

 

[Mike Smith]

Wall Street is expecting 1.3M deliveries in 2022. Tesla is now at a 1.23M run rate and Shanghai is still expanding, so this means neither Austin or Berlin will produce any cars in 2022.

 

[Oveeus]

Was the 934090 share sale from Elon the forecast?

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Wall Street is expecting 1.3M deliveries in 2022. Tesla is now at a 1.23M run rate and Shanghai is still expanding, so this means neither Austin or Berlin will produce any cars in 2022.

Probably due to repeated bee infestations...

 

[Cult Member]

That is such a blowout number that the market should move pretty heavily… I didn’t expect nearly that much.

Not only does that impact q4, but the 22 estimates of ~1.2-1.3m are comically low at this point. All firms are going to have to raise 22 production to at least 1.4m and should be in the range of 1.5-1.6m. That should be worth ~200 to the share price by Wall Street’s own valuation. The setup is here for ~1400 after earnings.

Don't forget to add Austin and Berlin numbers. My guess is 1.9m in 2022.

 

[Boomer19]

s&x are going to skyrocket in 2022
they only did a bit less than 25k in 2021

the 2022 S&X will surely offset any initial negative margin impact from
brandenburg and austin as they book
———
plus mega pack factory should improve generation and storage margins, as large scale is currently the focus in that segment

TE had 800m rev
800m cost (~0 margin) in q3
- that will improve slightly as we move forward
———-
larger chucks of fsd take up will start being booked (potentially second half of year or ‘23 ??) as beta turns into prod
———
and insurance will continue to be added in more states
——-
op margin will benefit

 

[GOVA]

Just drove my MY for the 1st time in snow. LOL. Train on wheels. This should be a mandatory car wherever it snows.
Curious if Laura is going to report on that or provide a comprehensive analysis of Tesla's P&D number tomorrow. Probably not, but she was the 1st one to 'warn' everyboday about the rec alls...

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Busted growth story
/s

 

[H Mak]

Deliveries	2020	2021	CHANGE
Q1	88,496	184,800	109%​
Q2	90,891	201,250	121%​
Q3	139,593	241,300	73%​
Q4	180,667	308,600	71%​
YEAR	499,647	935,950	87%​

G R O W T H

 

[ZsoZso]

I look forward to hearing from the bears how this is bad for Tesla and a sure sign of a demand problem

Surely, Tesla pickup sales in Timbuktu are still laughable, they are clearly losing market share


@H Mak you can clearly see the busted growth story from the fall of growth in Q2 (121%) -> Q3 (73%) -> Q4 (71%) numbers. /s

 

[mongo]

Amazing. 1.2 Million run rate annual without new factories

Wall Street is expecting 1.3M deliveries in 2022. Tesla is now at a 1.23M run rate and Shanghai is still expanding, so this means neither Austin or Berlin will produce any cars in 2022.

Even better, 1.2 million actual rate. Run rate/ installed capacity assumes 100% uptime extrapolated from a shorter time span. A full quarter of production is about as real as it gets (probably still conservative since rate likely increased during the quarter).

 

[CorneliusXX]

Numbers are out.
P: 305,840
D: 308,600

So much for unwinding the wave. Perhaps Tesla logistics is just improving at an even faster rate than Tesla manufacturing.