Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WADan]

I totally appreciate all the analyzing that goes around Tesla stock and it’s future valuation. Like what it’s potential earnings will be and what P/E ratio we can assign to it. That’s all fun and interesting to look at. I honestly think it is much deeper than that though. What’s interesting I have a friend that is the boss of a bunch of investment bankers and another that is in wealth management that only deals with very wealthy people. They both think Tesla is extremely over valued. There’s definitely more to investing in something like Tesla than just looking at the numbers on a spreadsheet. It’s understanding their lead, the company culture, their drive to innovate, actually listening to Elon Musk and understanding him, and predicting future trends. I probably missed some stuff but these things are more important than P/E ratios.

I can certainly attest to this as my nephew-in-law is an investment banker, and he thinks Tesla is over valued (he drives a Tesla) despite everything I throw at him. I think the problem is those people are trained in more traditional methods and can’t see disruptive potential. For example, Buffet admitted he did not realize the potential of Amazon even he had met with Bezos a few times!

 

[GOVA]

I can certainly attest to this as my nephew-in-law is an investment banker, and he thinks Tesla is over valued (he drives a Tesla) despite everything I throw at him. I think the problem is those people are trained in more traditional methods and can’t see disruptive potential. For example, Buffet admitted he did not realize the potential of Amazon even he had met with Bezos a few times!

The more I grow up and then talk to others, I see the gargantuan abbys between us. They don't care, they are too lazy to do any sort of research, they are too stupid to understand the basics, etc.

In any case, 'some people are never ready to be unplugged' More power to this crowd.

 

[jerry33]

They're barking up the wrong tree anyway given spacex is private, unless they want to poison the well for a company that won't list for years to come.

They're more likely to just be hunting Elon clicks.

Most people don't draw a line between SpaceX and Tesla. So SpaceX FUD is also Tesla FUD.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Reuters published more factually incorrect data, supporting your statement.

Twitterer updated Reuter's tables with Tesla's numbers from Troy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481816812908126209

You know this has nothing to do with Reuters, right? It's because Tesla doesn't publish sales by country. They can't use Troy's estimates as actual sales.

If Tesla published their # of U.S. sales they'd be included.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Reuters published more factually incorrect data, supporting your statement.

Twitterer updated Reuter's tables with Tesla's numbers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481816812908126209

Yup, roto-REUTERS skipped a couple COGS there, didn't they?

Turns out, they were protecting the Public from road rage incidents like this one by a Toyota Tacoma driver who just got the news about U.S. Auto Sales: /S

Gun pointed at Tesla driver during road rage incident in California captured on TeslaCam [Video]

A Tesla driver in San Diego, California, experienced a road rage incident involving a weapon which was all caught on camera.

driveteslacanada.ca

"FUD at Eleven..."

Cheers!

P.S. Bonus points to anybody who watches the ABC News video, and notices the TOYOTA AD on screen (bottom-left) during their story about a gun-brandishing Toyota driver.

 

[hobbes]

Those are sellable, but my thoughts are these are most likely built for Euro NCAP testing. I know as I had to do that for Model S in 2014 when we built 12 identical cars and they came and randomly picked one. They then test it and approve production/homologation for customer purchase.

O

Why do you say they are sellable? Only cars produced after final permit are.

 

[Drax7]

I can certainly attest to this as my nephew-in-law is an investment banker, and he thinks Tesla is over valued (he drives a Tesla) despite everything I throw at him. I think the problem is those people are trained in more traditional methods and can’t see disruptive potential. For example, Buffet admitted he did not realize the potential of Amazon even he had met with Bezos a few times!

concerning valuations , how do they feel about Amazons valuation

amazon has a higher mkt cap than the combined 7 next biggest retailers

amazn $1673 million market cap

wmt $401. “
home D $389
coctco $ 222
target $ 105
low $163
cvs. $139
Kroger. $36
Total 1425 million combined

 

[CorneliusXX]

After looking at Wu Wa's latest video I'd say they're still adding dirt to the pile - although there is a little flat piece of land to the right of the powerline that provides hope that levelling has begun for the next factory.

One thing is certain - they are moving at China speed - those trucks are lined up nuts to butts.

Source

 

[Ogre]

concerning valuations , how do they feel about Amazons valuation

amazon has a higher mkt cap than the combined 7 next biggest retailers combined.

amazn $1673 million market cap

Hmm. How long until TSLA will pass AMZN’s market cap? Seems like they are the next in line.

Converted my AMZN to TSLA in early November and haven’t looked back. I think Amazon is a great story and happy to have enjoyed a nice double there, but going forward Tesla‘s potential is much higher.

 

[tivoboy]

concerning valuations , how do they feel about Amazons valuation

amazon has a higher mkt cap than the combined 7 next biggest retailers

amazn $1673 million market cap

wmt $401. “
home D $389
coctco $ 222
target $ 105
low $163
cvs. $139
Kroger. $36
Total 1425 million combined

None of those retailers have a giant cloud hosting business that generates 50B in revenues (growing about ~+35%) and producing 25-30% operating margins. So, it’s not really apples to apples for sure.

 

[keydiver]

Why do you say they are sellable? Only cars produced after final permit are.

I don't know about that, although it is what I also thought at first, until that German government official was interviewed the other day. He said that he hopes that those 2,000 cars go to happy customers with orders, or something like that. It would be insane to think that Tesla would build and then scrap 2,000 Model Y's! Now it sounds to me like they just can't SELL any of them to customers until AFTER they get their permit.

 

[Paul_SF]

None of those retailers have a giant cloud hosting business that generates 50B in revenues (growing about ~+35%) and producing 25-30% operating margins. So, it’s not really apples to apples for sure.

Exactly. Like Tesla is not only a car company.

 

[t153]

Many of those weren’t intended to be sold. Tesla asked for the permit because they weren’t happy with the quality of the cars.

Now.. the month+ delays in issuing the final permit. Now that is heinous.

They said no such thing. This was simply some youtuber's ASSumption.

Also, to those saying the cars will not be sold, as already mentioned by a few people earlier, those cars can be sold after the final approval is granted. This was confirmed by some German Minister a couple of days ago.

 

[larmor]

Yup, roto-REUTERS skipped a couple COGS there, didn't they?


View attachment 755683

Turns out, they were protecting the Public from road rage incidents like this one by a Toyota Tacoma driver who just got the news about U.S. Auto Sales: /S

Gun pointed at Tesla driver during road rage incident in California captured on TeslaCam [Video]

A Tesla driver in San Diego, California, experienced a road rage incident involving a weapon which was all caught on camera.

driveteslacanada.ca

"FUD at Eleven..."

View attachment 755685

Cheers!

P.S. Bonus points to anybody who watches the ABC News video, and notices the TOYOTA AD on screen (bottom-left) during their story about a gun-brandishing Toyota driver.

And the caption on the screen implies the Tesla driver flashes the gun- instead of being on the receiving end of the gun, choice of words has meaning. I’m guessing the choice of words was not an accident.

 

[Nocturnal]

You know this has nothing to do with Reuters, right? It's because Tesla doesn't publish sales by country. They can't use Troy's estimates as actual sales.

If Tesla published their # of U.S. sales they'd be included.

Surely they can find this information somewhere.

 

[Unpilot]

I keep beating this drum, but . . . why not just borrow against the assets?

While I am not, by any means, an expert on this topic, I STRONGLY suggest that selling TSLA shares is almost always going to be the very wrong thing to do.

Everyone on this thread should be very well aware that TSLA could be at 2x or 3x in just a few years. This interview by David Lee suggests that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by 2025:

Which begs the question: Why would anyone wish to sell shares, shares that will be far, far more valuable in the years ahead, when asset-based lending exists? (And I believe/think that's how Elon was funding his lifestyle for many, many years before forced to sell shares due to expiring employment options.)

If you actually sell shares to pay taxes, that tax payment will likely be the most expensive taxes you will ever pay.

Others may chime in with more options here, but I just don't see how what you are planning to do is even remotely a good idea.

p.s. More info on asset-based lending here; others may have additional info:

Portfolio Line Of Credit: What It Is And How It Works | Bankrate

A portfolio line of credit can be a great way to borrow money at a low interest rate, but there are risks too. Here’s what you should know.

www.bankrate.com

Cant do this if the bulk are in a retirement IRA.

No asset backed loan using IRA as collateral.

 

[Tyler34]

Cant do this if the bulk are in a retirement IRA.

No asset backed loan using IRA as collateral.

My local bank here in Oregon will give me a home building loan using my ira as collateral. Umpqua bank if you are on the same coast as me.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any one else get the feeling the Stock is about to do this?

* * * U.S.G.S. Vulcanism Alert * * *

Cheers!

 

[Phobi]

Today, 1/14/22 is officially ONE of the 1-2 “oh s..t” days I expected to come.. next week we’ll probably see the other. Some things are getting very interesting but I’m still going to be waiting till the whites of their eyes are covered in vomit before taking some positions. I’ve spent the day taking OFF the CC‘s I wrote on QQQ and many other NASDAQ holdings for pennies.. There is some good premium for 1/21 and 1/28 for what ppl think is going to be a bounce so I wanted to free up the underlyings to be able to write again. , but as I said I think there is one more day of puking to come. Question is, when.

If that’s the case, I’m buying a case of ipecac, let’s go!!!

Syrup of ipecac

 

[MP3Mike]

My local bank here in Oregon will give me a home building loan using my ira as collateral. Umpqua bank if you are on the same coast as me.

Sure, you can do that, but nobody wants to. Because the second you do that the IRS treats it as a distribution and assess taxes/penalties on it.

Retirement Plans FAQs regarding Loans | Internal Revenue Service

Frequently Asked questions regarding Loans.

www.irs.gov

3. What happens if a loan is taken from an IRA?​

If the owner of an IRA borrows from the IRA, the IRA is no longer an IRA, and the value of the entire IRA is included in the owner’s income. (IRC Sections 408(e)(2) and (3))

If the owner of an IRA pledges part of the IRA as collateral, the part of the IRA that is pledged is treated as distributed. (IRC Section 408(e)(4))