Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

But it is not just Tesla, it is broad market. Everyone at TMC needs to broaden that which they view. Take in the big picture of the market, then narrow the focus to sectors or groups, then the individual stocks. The kind of money it takes to manipulate is too much to move the entire market. Even the Russians brought forth as having early earnings reports made <100M

Market makers have a lot of tools available to raise and lower prices at will. The reason for this is the system is set up to trust them. However, those of us who have been paying attention know the MM's are not trust-worthy. Money talks, ethics walk.

 

[Discoducky]

Would this logic not support VW just adding a setting to bypass environmental controls?

No, as that setting would be deterministic and would always result in a violation if selected vs the rolling stop being inference based on the camera inferring a stop sign vs a yield sign or no sign. The driver is still at fault no matter what the system infers and does.

The default mode for V10.8.1 on my Model X is "Average" which is described as "...may perform rolling stops."

Regardless, all of this is good PR for Tesla and I think helps in the long run. The NHTSA is effectively saying that they believe Tesla's system is now good enough to say to that detecting stop signs is closing in on 'deterministic'.

That, my friends, IMHO, is a good step forward that the NHTSA is saying that FSD will be the de-facto way cars are driven in the future.

 

[Krugerrand]

But it is not just Tesla, it is broad market. Everyone at TMC needs to broaden that which they view. Take in the big picture of the market, then narrow the focus to sectors or groups, then the individual stocks. The kind of money it takes to manipulate is too much to move the entire market. Even the Russians brought forth as having early earnings reports made <100M

No, we don’t. Pointing in other directions to explain what’s happening *here* just employs an excuse for the sake of wanting relevancy. Everything should be on its own merit and not tied to something else. We need to stop doing what’s always done and adding credence to it when it’s just a bunch of bourbon soaked truffles. Otherwise we perpetuate the lie being told to us.

Tesla is currently incorrectly valued. Period. It matters not to Tesla or TSLA if another business is also incorrectly valued. The Market trying to tie them together is the lie. Stop listening to and believing the lie because until the lie is called out, there’s no reason for ‘them’ to stop lying.

This is exactly what Elon and his companies are trying to do with first principles - stop the lies.

Peanut butter, but humans are gullible balls of stupidity and illogic nonsense.

 

[MABMAB]

There are some assumptions here…namely, that all trades are “real” money trades. If a large bulk of trades are algorithm-driven, then it can require far less of an intentional “real money” move to manipulate the other money into doing what you want…

There are, unfortunately, some really, really super intelligent people working at hedge funds. They have this stuff down to a science well beyond what you and I can imagine. Shame they do not put their gifts into the betterment of humanity, but again, this is why Elon is such a rare bird.

If one can't imagine this stuff, it is kind of imaginary then and ought not be considered in a trading plan.

MMM might not be unique to TSLA though, and trends that one sees throughout the ebb and flow of a market day can be utilized. But it does not mean there is coordinated stuff that others imagined.

 

[StealthP3D]

If one can't imagine this stuff, it is kind of imaginary then and ought not be considered in a trading plan.

MMM might not be unique to TSLA though, and trends that one sees throughout the ebb and flow of a market day can be utilized. But it does not mean there is coordinated stuff that others imagined.

Don't be gullible. People have always networked and coordinated to make money. It's how the game is played.

The goal is being able to do it in ways you won't get caught. Because no one wants a slap on the wrist!

 

[generalenthu]

It's really a bizarre market at the moment. Some very distorted valuations on companies that are barely growing. Walmart only increased revenue 4% and their earnings/net income were DOWN Yoy in Q3 and it still get's a P/E of 56.

Simply unreal.

I dont think that headline PE is right for Walmart. There are some accounting issues that are causing the earnings number to be artificially low. These are always tricky when a lot of real estate is involved. Normalized for that, I think the PE is closer to 25.

The one thing that they probably do is spend a bunch of time with analysts to walk them through opaque financials explaining all these issues after the conf calls. Tesla does that too, but I am pretty sure they don't coddle the analysts like other larger companies do.

 

[jerry33]

Don't be gullible. People have always networked and coordinated to make money. It's how the game is played.

The goal is being able to do it in ways you won't get caught. Because no one wants a slap on the wrist!

Of course, it helps when you make the rules to favour your game.

 

[MABMAB]

No, we don’t. Pointing in other directions to explain what’s happening *here* just employs an excuse for the sake of wanting relevancy. Everything should be on its own merit and not tied to something else. We need to stop doing what’s always done and adding credence to it when it’s just a bunch of bourbon soaked truffles. Otherwise we perpetuate the lie being told to us.

Tesla is currently incorrectly valued. Period. It matters not to Tesla or TSLA if another business is also incorrectly valued. The Market trying to tie them together is the lie. Stop listening to and believing the lie because until the lie is called out, there’s no reason for ‘them’ to stop lying.

This is exactly what Elon and his companies are trying to do with first principles - stop the lies.

Peanut butter, but humans are gullible balls of stupidity and illogic nonsense.

Well I might just see if I can back out of this further, but I've said a few times that the market has damage and will need time to heal and move higher. TSLA price targets thus require more time to be reached. It takes a lot to overcome the market inertia.

It is not my belief that TSLA is fairly valued NOW, merely that there is big picture crap that will prevent moves to the higher price targets for a while. I've suggested 6 months minimum but really don't know, just that it won't be anytime soon.

TSLA Technical Analysis

Thanks for the plug to a paid service. Is this really TA, or perhaps better off in an options arena? The video is free. The information is of interest whether you are going long stock or options. Most YouTube analysts have some way of getting money - either ads or some premium subscription...

teslamotorsclub.com

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Maybe @The Accountant can confirm, but with BTC hitting 33K, I think we now have an impairment on the books for Q1. It will be small if it doesn’t go any lower, but if it continues to drop it could get more significant. Previously impared down to 29k or 26k or so.

teslamotorsclub.com

I've said these things before in the TA forum, think they bore out true over time. (Note, significant new highs took from March until September) TSLA Technical Analysis

The big picture of the market can't be ignored.

Argue with the market, I think I am done and have said my peace on this.

 

[FS_FRA]

2019, 2020 on TMC: the streets are sneaking up their eps and deliveries so Tesla can miss. GJ and his BS numbers skewing the street.

2021, 2022 on TMC: the street doesn't get Tesla Financials and are clowning around with forward eps too low.

Still trying to figure out what you guys want the street to do here.

Buy. Nothing else.

 

[ZeApelido]

19k deliveries in China in January.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488561361911431168

 

[ThisStockGood]

Black on China January rumors:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488562177535524867

 

[Cherry Wine]

19k deliveries in China in January.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488561361911431168

Now the question is, Model 3 only, or both Model 3/Y?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Now the question is, Model 3 only, or both Model 3/Y?

Pretty sure that's total between local sales of 3/Y. The real question is as always in the 1st/2nd months of the quarter, what are exports. If they stick to trends from Q4, probably 55k-60k exports

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Pretty sure that's total between local sales of 3/Y. The real question is as always in the 1st/2nd months of the quarter, what are exports. If they stick to trends from Q4, probably 55k-60k exports

perhaps this is evidence of unwinding the wave

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

perhaps this is evidence of unwinding the wave

There's no reason to think that. If you've been watching Wu Wan's videos (and he's taken a lot in Jan) production is by far at an all time peak. When you factor in the videos where he counts 3's and Y's coming out of the factory, a 75-80k production month is theoretically possible (and I'd say pretty likely). So a local sales of 19k + 55k of exports + 5k of exports not being counted due to sitting on the loading docks (video evidence of 5k+ 3/Y's sitting on loading dock on Jan 30th).......means business as usual.

Berlin is at most only going to produce like 5-10k this quarter. There's zero point to unwinding the wave until Q2. Maybe even Q3. Especially when start of production is out of Tesla's hands.

 

[Spacep0d]

Except tesla just had to issue an OTA recall because it is illegal (and that's just an L2 system it gets far more significant for L3+ under current law)

Again, a car maker can not put an L3+ system on the road in any US state legally unless they certify it will obey all current traffic laws

Including speed limits.

The idea any car maker would ignore the law and release a system in violation of such law, when they (not the driver) would be assuming all liability for it, is simply absurd.


This issue isn't "the car could get a ticket"

The issue is it's illegal to even put that system on the road with that capability under current law.

FWIW, speed limits are not absolute, even on the freeway where one must take into account traffic flow and speed parity. For example, there is a question on the DMV driving test which asks about correct merge speed. The correct answer is not at 'the speed limit' but at a speed matched to the flow of traffic.

Surface street speed limit signs are just a presumption of safe speed which changes based on conditions, including traffic flow, whether the road is divided, how wide the road is, etc.

Ironically, lower posted limits that are too low for conditions means some drivers abide by those limits in any lane they choose, creating more lane changes from other drivers and more accidents.

The ideal situation is where everyone travels at the same speed with fewest lane changes, which is why slowpokes in the overtaking lanes create a constant hazard as frustrated faster traffic is forced to slalom around them.

I suspect that Robotaxis and even FSD with car-to-car communication should solve a whole lot of speed disparity hazards in the future.

 

[mrmage]

Pretty sure that's total between local sales of 3/Y. The real question is as always in the 1st/2nd months of the quarter, what are exports. If they stick to trends from Q4, probably 55k-60k exports

Nowadays, I don't find sales figures from China particularly useful without exports. However, Elon focused on delivery costs rather than quantity last quarter, so I'm hoping for stronger Q1 / Jan than historical.

 

[navguy12]

What is it with all these Johnsons?

Isn’t that some running gag in the original ”Die Hard” movie?

 

[Knightshade]

FWIW, speed limits are not absolute, even on the freeway where one must take into account traffic flow and speed parity.

Just did a quick glance through CA state speed limit laws and find no support for your suggestion that exceeding the posted speed limit is ever legal.

There's many examples given where driving below it is expected though if conditions support driving AT the speed limit to be unsafe which is as near as anything in the law gets to your claim from my reading.

Here's a CA traffic lawyer explaining this:

What are the Four Major Speed Laws in California? | Ticket Dismissal

There are four major Speed Laws in California: Basic Speed Law, Prima Facie Speed Law, Maximum Speed Law, and Minimum Speed Law. Let’s take a look at these California speed laws.

getdismissed.com

Maximum Speed Law
The Maximum Speed Law may be the most known speed law in California. This law simply states that you cannot exceed the posted speed limit, which applies when you are trying to pass slow drivers. You may not exceed the speed limit or ‘go with the traffic flow’ because it puts others at risk for potential harm.

He also discusses the "basic" speed limit law, with specific examples of when due to that you might need to drive below the speed limit due to conditions.


if you have a citation to any CA law that says otherwise I'm always open to correction of course.

 

[SOULPEDL]

FWIW, speed limits are not absolute, even on the freeway where one must take into account traffic flow and speed parity. For example, there is a question on the DMV driving test which asks about correct merge speed. The correct answer is not at 'the speed limit' but at a speed matched to the flow of traffic.

Surface street speed limit signs are just a presumption of safe speed which changes based on conditions, including traffic flow, whether the road is divided, how wide the road is, etc.

Ironically, lower posted limits that are too low for conditions means some drivers abide by those limits in any lane they choose, creating more lane changes from other drivers and more accidents.

The ideal situation is where everyone travels at the same speed with fewest lane changes, which is why slowpokes in the overtaking lanes create a constant hazard as frustrated faster traffic is forced to slalom around them.

I suspect that Robotaxis and even FSD with car-to-car communication should solve a whole lot of speed disparity hazards in the future.

I wonder if the actual Tesla data shows no difference in risk when rolling through a stop sign (at a clear intersection) vs stopping 100% of the time. It's likely tied to a bunch of laws and rulings difficult to unwind... but if we were to compare cost/benefit, rolling through safely saves energy, time, and traffic. Maybe not for today's courts, but arguments will and should be made in the future. When all things are equally safe, other factors should come into consideration with energy becoming increasingly important over time. (Then again, I'm of the mindset that left-handed people such as myself are unnecessarily discriminated against all to be sorted out in the future.)