Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

I hear you, but for simple example, I want Elon's mind on figuring out how to iron out the challenges with the 4680 program, bringing the Cyber Truck into reality, and being 3 years ahead of everyone else on what a low-cost compact Tesla should look like.

Otherwise Tesla turns into Apple, which yeah is profitable, but doesn't really innovate and change the industry like it did under Jobs.

Except that the next of the layered Tesla S-curves depends completely on generalized AI development - for FSD/Robotaxi and Optimus Bot. I don’t get the feeling that’s straightforward execution at this point.

I think you guys are missing the point here. Musk wouldn’t be running most of these projects on a day-to-day basis regardless. He doesn’t have enough bandwidth to be engaged daily in: Dojo, Optimus, Cybertruck, Raptor engine design, 4680 production ramp, the Tesla Semi, Starship production, The chopstick landing system, Heat shields, Lithium mining… etc etc etc.

All of these projects are run by subject matter experts. Musk has technical review meetings with the various teams and gives suggestions, but if he misses a meeting, the projects continue on apace. If there is a hang up, the lead brings it to Musk. He doesn’t need to actively manage these projects day-to-day.

 

[SO16]

Drop stopping just shy of 10%. Shocker.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The stock split doesn't matter.......at least for the next 1-2 months minimum.

If it's not clear to everyone by now, didn't really matter what Powell said. Wall St had already predetermined that the market overall was going down. They already have a target that they're going for and every stock is going to get caught up in it. Then they'll claim the bottom is in and ride the market back up......all while saying now the Fed's are dovish.

The goal obviously is create as many stop losses and margin calls as they can before the ride back up. If it only costs tens of billions to drop the market enough to trigger those stop losses/margin calls, they'll make hundreds of billions.

I should have added....I don't think it's coincidence that Wall St is intent on pushing stocks as low as possible this week because guess what next week is?

Core CPI and PPI data.

Which coincidentally, is CPI and PPI data that finally actually matters. Because around April of 2021 is when inflation started to spike. I expect to see clear signs of inflation peaking or in fact already peaked. Even in last months CPI/PPI data, you could start to see signs of inflation peaking.

In which case, all the fear mongering about Fed's having to raise rates 8-10% because inflation is going to be just like the 80's goes out the window and not only closes the door on .75% rate hikes, but puts the .50% rate hikes in jeopardy of being downgraded into .25% rate hikes going forward.

 

[Thekiwi]

 

[Ogre]

Elon was always the accidental CEO of Tesla. I suspect that he has been waiting for years and years to be able to finally quietly exit stage left as CEO of Tesla. While he hasn't pulled this trigger yet, he did warn us that he may not show up to all Tesla quarterly meetings going forward.

I kind of wonder if the “TechnoKing” title has a lot to do with this.

Musk’s way of saying “I’m mostly CTO, but I’m also the boss when it’s needed.“

 

[Cosmacelf]

Except that the next of the layered Tesla S-curves depends completely on generalized AI development - for FSD/Robotaxi and Optimus Bot. I don’t get the feeling that’s straightforward execution at this point.

If so, Elon hasn’t shown himself to be particularly great at anything to do with AI. As they were getting ready to roll out Mobileye way back when, he didn’t think AI was needed for FSD. Then they tried to replicate Mobileye using more simplistic AI. It wasn’t until they hired Karpathy before they had something decent. But even
then he has consistently overshot what the systems they built were capable of doing. He’s now making the same mistake with Teslabot. A robot that is trained at the factory isn’t going going to be flexible enough to work in most real world jobs. Driving a car is much, much simpler than what a humanoid AI would have to deal with. My point is that Elon hasn’t shown himself to add much value to AI efforts.

 

[Nocturnal]

If so, Elon hasn’t shown himself to be particularly great at anything to do with AI. As they were getting ready to roll out Mobileye way back when, he didn’t think AI was needed for FSD. Then they tried to replicate Mobileye using more simplistic AI. It wasn’t until they hired Karpathy before they had something decent. But even
then he has consistently overshot what the systems they built were capable of doing. He’s now making the same mistake with Teslabot. A robot that is trained at the factory isn’t going going to be flexible enough to work in most real world jobs. Driving a car is much, much simpler than what a humanoid AI would have to deal with. My point is that Elon hasn’t shown himself to add much value to AI efforts.

Simpler perhaps, but error rates are more forgiving. If my Robot hits a wall while carrying groceries I might lose a few jars of pickles.

 

[Krugerrand]

Another thought here. If we're dealing with millions of broke legs and we don't have enough surgical supplies to do surgery to repair all of them, maybe casts for some and surgery for the rest is a good starting point. Come back and do the rest of the surgeries later.

Ok - totally trying to extend your word picture, and not sure I'm at all successful . I'm willing to take an A for effort and D for execution though.


In the current world we have nowhere near enough battery supply to go all-in on EVs yet. Extending that battery supply by improving mileage on some of those ICE cars by turning them into hybrid / PHEVs - cars that will be on the road 12+ years from now either way - while the battery supply is catching up seems like a pretty good, though not ideal, solution.

The good news is that the hybrids / PHEVs will naturally disappear from the market. If nothing else the steadily shrinking pool of ICE vehicles on the road will drive lower and lower demand for gasoline, pushing gas station out of the market, to the point where ICE vehicles will become hard to refuel. Talk about a demand driver as the final scramble to ditch ICE vehicles hits.

Great points, full credit. A+

My response breaks forum rules, but just remembering how much I like people should give you an idea of how I’d manage a lot of broken legs.

 

[Thekiwi]

If so, Elon hasn’t shown himself to be particularly great at anything to do with AI. As they were getting ready to roll out Mobileye way back when, he didn’t think AI was needed for FSD. Then they tried to replicate Mobileye using more simplistic AI. It wasn’t until they hired Karpathy before they had something decent. But even
then he has consistently overshot what the systems they built were capable of doing. He’s now making the same mistake with Teslabot. A robot that is trained at the factory isn’t going going to be flexible enough to work in most real world jobs. Driving a car is much, much simpler than what a humanoid AI would have to deal with. My point is that Elon hasn’t shown himself to add much value to AI efforts.

AI required to power Optimus for defined factory jobs will be much much much easier to implement than FSD. Robots are already widely deployed in factory‘warehouse settings after all, and as Nocturnal said above the safety margin is far more forgiving.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I think you guys are missing the point here. Musk wouldn’t be running most of these projects on a day-to-day basis regardless. He doesn’t have enough bandwidth to be engaged daily in: Dojo, Optimus, Cybertruck, Raptor engine design, 4680 production ramp, the Tesla Semi, Starship production, The chopstick landing system, Heat shields, Lithium mining… etc etc etc.

All of these projects are run by subject matter experts. Musk has technical review meetings with the various teams and gives suggestions, but if he misses a meeting, the projects continue on apace. If there is a hang up, the lead brings it to Musk. He doesn’t need to actively manage these projects day-to-day.

Equally smart people at other companies do not produce the results they do under Musk. I need his attention on Tesla because it undeniably matters.

 

[SO16]

Equally smart people at other companies do not produce the results they do under Musk. I need his attention on Tesla because it undeniably matters.

A lot of that is because of the culture he established. That would remain intact even if he isn’t at Tesla quite as much.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Hey they actually had a "great" (for them) Q1 report just come out.

They delivered 11 actual production vehicles, and had $431 in gross profits (no that's not missing any zeros)

Could be worse. They could be like Rivian and deliver thousands of units, all at negative gross margins because they didn't realize they had do costing models before they started selling products

 

[ZenRockGarden]

A lot of that is because of the culture he established. That would remain intact even if he isn’t at Tesla quite as much.

Culture requires constant maintenance from the very top. See: Apple's passion for innovation which has just about died with the loss of Steve Jobs.

 

[15Peter20]

21 more at $870 . My retirement fund is being depleted but this is impossible to resist.

 

[Ogre]

Equally smart people at other companies do not produce the results they do under Musk. I need his attention on Tesla because it undeniably matters.

How much of this has to do with Musk being involved in the day-to-day versus the simple absence of obstruction?

Every significantly expensive to implement idea at a legacy auto company must filter through multiple layers of meetings with bean counters, MBAs, and sometimes union reps. None of whom understand the most basic engineering, some who will feel threatened and obstruct the project regardless of it’s merit.

Projects of significance at Tesla are run by engineers—not accountants, MBAs, or English majors. Many of those engineers wind up in meetings with Musk directly. Musk is smart enough to recognize good ideas. This doesn’t require daily interaction with projects. It requires a CEO who is smart enough to recognize a good idea and put resources behind it.

Ford would never have approved the Cybertruck. GM would never have approved the billions Tesla has invested in designing the 4680 cell production line. There are too many layers between the idea and the execution.

 

[Ogre]

Culture requires constant maintenance from the very top. See: Apple's passion for innovation which has just about died with the loss of Steve Jobs.

Apple has maintained much of their corporate culture more than 10 years after the death of Steve Jobs. It might be fraying at the edges now, but it is still fundamentally the foundation built by Jobs.

If Musk were taking 6 months off or quitting Tesla I could see the concern, but that’s not happening and there are other executives who reinforce Musk’s ideas.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

How much of this has to do with Musk being involved in the day-to-day versus the simple absence of obstruction?

Every significantly expensive to implement idea at a legacy auto company must filter through multiple layers of meetings with bean counters, MBAs, and sometimes union reps. None of whom understand the most basic engineering to get the project approved, some who will feel threatened and obstruct the project regardless of it’s merit.

Projects of significance at Tesla are run by engineers, not accountants, MBAs, or English majors. Many of those engineers wind up in meetings with Musk directly. Musk is smart enough to recognize good ideas. This doesn’t require daily interaction with projects. It requires a CEO who is smart enough to recognize a good idea and put resources behind it.

Ford would never have approved the Cybertruck. GM would never have approved the billions Tesla has invested in designing the 4680 cell production line. There are too many layers of bullshit between the idea and the execution.

Again, Apple is my analogy and example. They basically quit innovating when Steve Jobs died. Did the way Apple structured all it's projects change on that day? No. Did all the project leads become dumber or less creative humans? Unlikely.

I stand by my observation that if you put Elon in charge of something, even if it's mostly lead by people under him, Stuff Happens. When Elon's attention is elsewhere, even with the culture and people still in place, something is missing. Elon's first big project was PayPal. Seen it do anything revolutionary lately? Nope.

Elon is a finite resource, and I don't want his inspiration, leadership, tech knowhow, whatever it is going to Twitter (where I'm not even sure it will produce good results due to his warped motivations for getting into it in the first place). I want that energy going into Tesla, so I will honestly root for the Twitter deal to fall apart so he can get back to working on the stuff he's good at and which drives Tesla Value vs just letting the thing coast ala PayPal

 

[floydboy]

Equally smart people at other companies do not produce the results they do under Musk. I need his attention on Tesla because it undeniably matters.

Equally smart people at other companies do not produce the results they do under Musk. I want his undivided attention on Tesla because it undeniably matters to me.

FTFY.

 

[larmor]

Setting aside the rocket ship thing others pointed out.

The whole add seems like a giant brag on how many people they have doing jobs which robots do better. Is Ford an auto company or a make-work program? The whole “Hand built American Made” nostalgia is a thing, but Tesla’s “Alien Dreadnaught“ is likely far more appealing to anyone under 50 (And many of us over 50!).

If the average person on the street sees this video then sees the the pristine robot world in the Giga Berlin or Cyber Rodeo videos, which technique would they favor?

There are many entities which are closely watching the robot usage and implementation in factories-- i'm guessing that would be amazon, and any US auto manufacturer striving to increase profits.

 

[dhanson865]

Treat your kid right, put TSLA in their account and get them a rocket bunk bed.