Benefit would only be what the employer pays for the premium. Also would need to subtract the $ that employees pay. My wifes employer is where we get our insurance. We pay about $1000 per month for our share of the premium.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Still think the overhang and the damage Elon has done to the brand still there. Rivian and Lucid up far higher. Rivian is even up for the week now. Lucid approaching green for the week.If there was any doubt that Tesla would rocket after the Twitter overhang was off... today puts that to rest!
Market wide is up too. We look to at least to have hit a short term bottom. Now whether we break out of the longer term down channel remains to be seen, but some relief for the next week or two should be in store.
Meh... Elon helps far more than he hurts and it is just temporary noise.
Rivian reiterated guidance that was doubted, and both Rivian and Lucid are much smaller market caps. Which means the risk tolerance of the market is returning and is usually a leading indicator that the market is stabilizing and getting ready for a rally. It should be expected that both of them (an other EV companies) get to par quicker than Tesla does... but Tesla will go far higher.
And right on cue......TSLA starts underperforming lol. The capping/spoofing started right away. Now underperforming it's beta yet again after being up 4X the macro's at open. If I sound annoyed, it's because I am. I'll always be annoyed when it's this blatant.
Even F/GM up more at this point
Even F/GM up more at this point
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
And right on cue......TSLA starts underperforming lol. The capping/spoofing started right away.
Even F/GM up more at this point
Unlike yesterday, not nearly as high a volume day. "They" can pull off this BS when the volume is low.
Compress that spring...And right on cue......TSLA starts underperforming lol. The capping/spoofing started right away. Now underperforming it's beta yet again after being up 4X the macro's at open. If I sound annoyed, it's because I am. I'll always be annoyed when it's this blatant.
Even F/GM up more at this point
No patience... the volume will kick in here within 30 minutes.
I had to sell my other shitty stocks when the war started because of margin call and liquidated all my Nio, ARK, NFLX, AMZN, MSFT, XPEV, GBTC. I grabbed some TSLA but it rebounded to 800 so fast. I told my self if I ever saw 700 again I would not pass on , ever.
larmor
Active Member
Homer Bushes GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY
GIPHY is the platform that animates your world. Find the GIFs, Clips, and Stickers that make your conversations more positive, more expressive, and more you.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
So basically all this activity was MM's driving TSLA down to the S&P inclusion price so their big customers(and they themselves) don't have to pay the premium retail put on TSLA over the pandemic.
Must be nice!
Must be nice!
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Looks like Elon's estimate of a couple more weeks to end Shanghai lockdown was right on point.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/XPN42HFDQFKE7LT335POWL7H2U.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Shanghai aims to defeat COVID over next week as Beijing hunkers down
Locked-down Shanghai aims to ringfence its COVID outbreak over the next week, officials said on Friday, while residents in China's capital Beijing largely heeded the advice of authorities to work from home to stem the virus' spread.
www.reuters.com
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Pretty much every pickup I see has dogs chained to the rear of the cab or fencing panels stacked high on the bed sides so that's a big purchase decision for millions of pickup buyers.
In the 2020's, new truck buyers do not chain dogs to the back of the cab but I think I hear the 1980's calling your name. This is the 2020's. The other problem is the rear headrests in the Cybertruck will prevent a gun rack from being mounted in the rear cab window. There goes the remaining 50% of Cybertruck sales.
#NoDemand!
/s
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
I haven't seen anyone post this and I haven't been following Tesla Semi news as much as I should other than Pepsi was testing out some initial production trucks in January
www.drive.com.au
Maybe this has always been there? https://www.tesla.com/semi/reserve#payment
Tesla Semi order books open in the US, prices and performance stats revealed
Order books have opened in the US for the long-awaited Tesla Semi electric truck – if you're prepared to put down a $20,000 deposit. Here's what we know so far.
www.drive.com.au
Maybe this has always been there? https://www.tesla.com/semi/reserve#payment
Don't selectively quote me to change the interpretation of my post.Pretty much every pickup I see has dogs chained to the rear of the cab or fencing panels stacked high on the bed sides so that's a big purchase decision for millions of pickup buyers.
In the 2020's, new truck buyers do not chain dogs to the back of the cab but I think I hear the 1980's calling your name. This is the 2020's. The other problem is the rear headrests in the Cybertruck will prevent a gun rack from being mounted in the rear cab window. There goes the remaining 50% of Cybertruck sales.
#NoDemand!
/s
People who do this sort of thing are the reason Elon is buying Twitter
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
DeWalt 60V 9ah battery packs are like $240. Now that cell production isn't the constraint, when are we gonna see a set of Tesla powered home & yard tools?
Partner with Bosch or someone and all we'd have to manufacture are the cell packs. Better yet, I'd love to see a set of tools that runs on a varying number of plastic-wrapped individual 4680 cells.
Leverage the "Hertz effect" in negotiations and we'd secure 70% of the margin with ease.
Partner with Bosch or someone and all we'd have to manufacture are the cell packs. Better yet, I'd love to see a set of tools that runs on a varying number of plastic-wrapped individual 4680 cells.
Leverage the "Hertz effect" in negotiations and we'd secure 70% of the margin with ease.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
They said cell wasn't a constraint this year because chips were more of one.
They also said they expect cells to go back to being constraining once chip shortage lets up.
Cells will be the fundamental constraint for years yet because there's such a massive # of vehicles to replace, plus scaling up energy.
where was Elon’s due diligence on this buy? Public tweets on what he wants to do is a form of manipulation. Why not just have internal discussions? If he did not want the SEC on his back, these tweets do not help? Musk speaks to millions on his pulpit, we speak to ourselves or maybe thousands. Different optics when he says something vs. us saying something... musk needs to keep his negotiations private otherwise it will definitely look like he is either manipulating the stockM trying to get a lower price or trying to back out. Definitely not good optics.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
One extra note on inflation pressure — It’s unclear how much CoGS is being held down temporarily by the long-term supply contracts vs cost improvements. Likewise, it’s unclear how much of the price increases were driven by demand pressure.
Basic market economic theory says that price for a good can rise for three reasons:
1) More demand
2) Less supply
3) Currency inflation
Our challenge here is that all three are occurring simultaneously and we’re trying to estimate the relative impact of each one.On the earnings call, these were the remarks concerning inflation and further price hikes:
“Our per unit vehicle cost increased as well. Inflation, raw material prices, expedites and logistics costs continues to impact our cost structure.”
“Actually on the price increase front, I should mention that it may seem like maybe we’re being unreasonable about increasing the prices of our vehicles, given that we had record profitability this quarter. But the wait list for our vehicles is quite long. And some of the vehicles that people will order, the wait list extends into next year. So our prices of vehicles ordered now are really anticipating a supplier and logistics cost growth that we’re aware of and believe will happen over the next six to 12 months. So that’s why we have the price increases today, because a car order today will arrive in some cases a year from now. So we have a very long wait list. And we’re obviously not demand limited. We are production limited by … Very much production limited”
“So we’ve been experiencing increases in costs in general, but also raw materials for a number of quarters now. That pace picked up in Q1, so last quarter. And what we’re seeing for Q2 is slightly higher than that as well. And as indices move, it doesn’t impact us immediately or directly. In some cases we have contracts with suppliers. But then as those contracts expire, we have to renegotiate them so that there can be a lag.”
“In some cases, our contracts do directly reflect movement in commodity prices, raw material prices. But the timing in which that Tesla pays for that has a lag associated with it as well, based on the contract. And so to Elon’s point what we’re trying to do here, because it’s quite an unprecedented situation of raw material movement, and all of these various lags and uncertainty around renegotiating contracts is, we’re trying to anticipate where things will go. And make sure the pricing that we have put in place at the time that those raw material cost increases hit us, that they align.”
“So there were some inherent cost improvements, as I mentioned, but there’s also offsets that we’ve talked about previously in raw materials, commodities. Outbound logistics continues to remain a challenge despite a ton of efforts to increase capacity there and bring those costs down.”
“We absolutely want to make EVs as affordable as possible. It’s been very difficult, I mean I think inflation is at a 40 or 50 year high, and I think the official numbers actually understate the true magnitude of inflation. And that inflation appears to be likely to continue for at least the remainder of this year. When we’re talking to suppliers, the suppliers are under severe cost pressure, and in some cases, we’re seeing suppliers request 20 to 30% cost increases for parts from last year to the end of this year. So there’s a lot of cost pressure there. That’s why we raised our prices because when things were this uncertain with respect to inflation, but you know it’s high, and we’ve got orders that go out a year or more in some cases, then we have to anticipate those cost increases.”
“What’s keeping our costs down, at least in the short term, is that we have long term contracts with suppliers, but those long term contracts will obviously run out and then we’ll start to see potentially significant cost increases.”
“Well, we hope we don’t need to increase the pricing further. The current pricing is anticipating what we think is the probable growth in costs. And if that growth in cost does not materialize, we actually may slightly reduce prices. So we don’t currently anticipate making significant price increases, but obviously we don’t control the macroeconomic environment. If governments keep printing vast amounts of money, and if there are not significant increases in lithium extraction and refinement and the other raw materials such that everyone’s competing for a limited amount of raw materials, then obviously that will drive prices to high levels. So if you have a crystal ball that can tell us what the future’s going to be like, we’ll adjust accordingly, but the current prices are for a vehicle delivered in the future, like six to 12 months from now, so this is our best guess.”
“Actually on the price increase front, I should mention that it may seem like maybe we’re being unreasonable about increasing the prices of our vehicles, given that we had record profitability this quarter. But the wait list for our vehicles is quite long. And some of the vehicles that people will order, the wait list extends into next year. So our prices of vehicles ordered now are really anticipating a supplier and logistics cost growth that we’re aware of and believe will happen over the next six to 12 months. So that’s why we have the price increases today, because a car order today will arrive in some cases a year from now. So we have a very long wait list. And we’re obviously not demand limited. We are production limited by … Very much production limited”
“So we’ve been experiencing increases in costs in general, but also raw materials for a number of quarters now. That pace picked up in Q1, so last quarter. And what we’re seeing for Q2 is slightly higher than that as well. And as indices move, it doesn’t impact us immediately or directly. In some cases we have contracts with suppliers. But then as those contracts expire, we have to renegotiate them so that there can be a lag.”
“In some cases, our contracts do directly reflect movement in commodity prices, raw material prices. But the timing in which that Tesla pays for that has a lag associated with it as well, based on the contract. And so to Elon’s point what we’re trying to do here, because it’s quite an unprecedented situation of raw material movement, and all of these various lags and uncertainty around renegotiating contracts is, we’re trying to anticipate where things will go. And make sure the pricing that we have put in place at the time that those raw material cost increases hit us, that they align.”
“So there were some inherent cost improvements, as I mentioned, but there’s also offsets that we’ve talked about previously in raw materials, commodities. Outbound logistics continues to remain a challenge despite a ton of efforts to increase capacity there and bring those costs down.”
“We absolutely want to make EVs as affordable as possible. It’s been very difficult, I mean I think inflation is at a 40 or 50 year high, and I think the official numbers actually understate the true magnitude of inflation. And that inflation appears to be likely to continue for at least the remainder of this year. When we’re talking to suppliers, the suppliers are under severe cost pressure, and in some cases, we’re seeing suppliers request 20 to 30% cost increases for parts from last year to the end of this year. So there’s a lot of cost pressure there. That’s why we raised our prices because when things were this uncertain with respect to inflation, but you know it’s high, and we’ve got orders that go out a year or more in some cases, then we have to anticipate those cost increases.”
“What’s keeping our costs down, at least in the short term, is that we have long term contracts with suppliers, but those long term contracts will obviously run out and then we’ll start to see potentially significant cost increases.”
“Well, we hope we don’t need to increase the pricing further. The current pricing is anticipating what we think is the probable growth in costs. And if that growth in cost does not materialize, we actually may slightly reduce prices. So we don’t currently anticipate making significant price increases, but obviously we don’t control the macroeconomic environment. If governments keep printing vast amounts of money, and if there are not significant increases in lithium extraction and refinement and the other raw materials such that everyone’s competing for a limited amount of raw materials, then obviously that will drive prices to high levels. So if you have a crystal ball that can tell us what the future’s going to be like, we’ll adjust accordingly, but the current prices are for a vehicle delivered in the future, like six to 12 months from now, so this is our best guess.”
It seems we’ve been getting mixed messaging from Tesla on inflation, cost and car prices. I think the most likely explanations are that either they’re communicating poorly or deliberately obfuscating to avoid revealing their advantages yet.
Zach and Elon repeatedly emphasized the impact of inflation on cost recently. The earning report slide deck does too. And there is definitely a lag in inflation reaching Tesla because of preexisting contracts. 15-20% broad inflation globally is nothing to ignore and Tesla can’t escape the macroeconomy.
On the other hand, they’ve provided equally strong messaging about demand strength, saying that:
- they had been “caught off guard” by “a profound awakening to the desirability of EVs”
- orders far exceed production growth to the point that CT/Semi/Roadster have been postponed multiple years
- shutting down the order availability for some variants is under consideration
- the Superbowl ad effect caused US orders to double overnight
- Tesla will sell all they can make for the foreseeable future
“electric vehicles”
“EVs”
“how much does it cost to charge an EV”
“Tesla”
“how much range does a Tesla have”
“energy independence”
And sure enough, in March Tesla broke a 4-month lull in price hikes to increase them like 7% across the board. Yet even two months later they are reiterating that wait times are still a problem. This timing doesn’t appear to indicate a reaction to inflation.Austin and Berlin will probably hit volume production later this year and into Q1 ‘23 which will save significant cost on manufacturing, logistics and tariffs. They will account for around 35% of total deliveries in 2023 about $4-10k savings, especially from Berlin avoiding a $6-8k import tax on every car. With orders today being fulfilled 6-12 months from now, Tesla would certainly be anticipating those savings because they know their cost model and production ramp expectations better than anyone else. Shanghai’s continued expansion will also lower average costs by virtue of its lower cost structure than Fremont. So why is Tesla making it sound like their price hikes simply reflect anticipation of inflation 6-12 months from now? That sounds like a half-truth with the parts about demand and efficiency left unmentioned.
Conspicuously absent from all comments from Elon and Zach was any mention that Model S&X deliveries had increased by 3k units from Q4, which was almost a 1% swing in overall mix across the 310k total deliveries. S&X cost about $40k more to produce than 3&Y, so this mix shift would’ve had an impact of about $400 on average cost across all deliveries. The entire jump in average CoGS per vehicle was only $600 total, so the S&X mix shift alone probably accounted for the majority of it.
Margins
Even if inflation between now and 2023 will have been 25% across Tesla’s entire automotive cost structure, that would be a $9.1k increase per car from the $36.5k Q1 average cost. That’s actually not even realistic because Tesla’s factories are on a fixed depreciation and amortization schedule unaffected by inflation as far as I know. But let’s go with $9k to be safe.
Prices increases since October have been:
$9k for 3 RWD
$8k for 3 LR/P
$18k for Y SR (good luck even getting delivery though)
$12k for Y LR
$8k for Y P
$10k for S LR
$16k for S P
$10k for X LR
$19k for X P
Mix will be mostly weighted towards Y and some 3. Maybe $1k of this hit already in Q1 numbers. It is clear that by 2023 when orders from March and beyond are being delivered, price increases will have impacted ASP by around $9k from Q1’s $52.4k to rise to $61.4k, but it doesn’t stop there. Model Y is priced about $7k more than a comparable Model 3 despite costing the same to produce. As mix shifts from approximately 3% S/X 47% 3 50% Y to 4% S/X 21% 3 75% Y, we’ll see an additional ~$2.3k price bonus, taking us to $63.7k expected.
This $11.3k combined price increase already is enough to exceed the $9k worst case scenario for inflation. But with the growth of Austin/Berlin at 35% of volume and $4-10k savings per car, we could easily see $1.4-3.5k overall downward pressure on cost from that. Also Shanghai is cheaper than Fremont by maybe 10% at least and with its growth, it would contribute an additional maybe $1k cost saving. Summing the inflation hit of $9k with the savings leads to estimated average 2023 cost increase of $6k to $42.5k. If inflation is more like 15% then the math works out to $39k. If the new factories do really well, net cost might not increase at all!
Even in the 25% inflation scenario gross profit per unit is $63.7-42.5=$21.2k and in the more realistic scenarios gross profit looks more like $25k. In an optimum case where the new factories drag cost down by $9k for each car they sell (25% efficiency gain) and inflation for Tesla is only 10% overall, cost will actually fall slightly to $36k and gross profit per car would be ~$28k! These cases would have gross margin of 33%, 39% and 44% respectively. Any additional price increases could bump it even higher, and none of this is counting ZEV credits.
Spread that across 3-4 million deliveries and we’re looking at a wild year.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I selectively excluded some of these facts.
We're only talking about a few dozen semi's worth of cells to feed the entire market! I want a Tesla chainsaw. And a Tesla trimmer.... obviously. And a snowblower. And a sawzall!
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