Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

where was Elon’s due diligence on this buy? Public tweets on what he wants to do is a form of manipulation. Why not just have internal discussions? If he did not want the SEC on his back, these tweets do not help? Musk speaks to millions on his pulpit, we speak to ourselves or maybe thousands. Different optics when he says something vs. us saying something... musk needs to keep his negotiations private otherwise it will definitely look like he is either manipulating the stockM trying to get a lower price or trying to back out. Definitely not good optics.

This is the time for due diligence.

Raise your hand if you have done corporate purchases? I have. You spend a LOT of time digging into the nitty-gritty after you have reached a deal. And it is common to modify the deal if the original description doesn't match what is discovered.

I've specifically bought companies JUST for their customer base (buying out a competitor), and when you get into looking at the customers and find out that some may not be legit, you back those out from the paid lot proportionally.

Twitter wants this deal, they will be scrambling behind the scenes right now in order to validate how many bots they have on service.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know where Tesla ends up on P/D numbers this quarter, but I bet there won't be an end-of-quarter push. I think, to the extent supplies allow, there will be an entire second half of the quarter push, with Elon's internal goal being getting production as close to Q1 as possible. This will be unexpected by everyone except TMC members and the Twitter bots that follow us. So if they get even close to that, watch out and giddy up. (please get close...)

How is that different from the normal goal each quarter to produce as much as humanly possible?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jonas on CNBC praising Tesla as our national destiny!

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas breaks down shares of Tesla | CNBC (5:32)

Adam Jonas' opening statement:

"I think its time for your audience to really ask, what kind of future do we want to make for our children and for our country? And this is the time, and I think the Tesla narrative which we've said is an overvalued auto company, and an undervalued on-shore energy infrastructure company."

AJ is recycling his thesis from March 2019, when he stated that "Tesla is overvalued on fundamentals and undervalued strategically". #31,082

At that time (over 3 yrs ago), TSLA's Mkt Cap was $45.7B (and it's SP was $52.90 - split adjusted):

Well, guess what AJ? You were wrong then, and you're wrong now. Tesla has GROWN into its Mkt Cap, and 20x since. He discounts AI as "fully-priced-in" with a handwave, yet ignores the entire progress on public display in the FSD beta program. He ignores future AI products like DOJO-as-a-Service, and TeslaBot (with the largest possible TAM on Earth, and beyond-- a product literally headed to Mars).

AJ further ignores Tesla Insurance, Cybertruck, Semi, Robotaxi, and Supercharging service. But he's still quite certain that China bad, and MAYBE, there can be a spin-off on the Shanghai Stock Exchange but he's not sure... Wassa matta AJ? Can't wet ur beak in China? U banned, bro?

Then, AJ ignores Giga Berlin and Giga Austin as the solutions for all the problems he attributes to Tesla's current concentration of manufacturing in China. What.a.maroon! Never let facts get in the way of a good story, right AJ?

TL;dr Tesla has grown; AJ has remained stuck in the past

 

[TSLA Siempre]

This is the time for due diligence.

Raise your hand if you have done corporate purchases? I have. You spend a LOT of time digging into the nitty-gritty after you have reached a deal. And it is common to modify the deal if the original description doesn't match what is discovered.

I've specifically bought companies JUST for their customer base (buying out a competitor), and when you get into looking at the customers and find out that some may not be legit, you back those out from the paid lot proportionally.

Twitter wants this deal, they will be scrambling behind the scenes right now in order to validate how many bots they have on service.

Yes due diligence is necessary even after terms initially agreed upon. However, this is a topic that Elon has had clear eye about for a long long time. Market conditions have changed and that is a much more obvious and likely explanation than that he had a new revelation about bots being widespread on Twitter. He may or may not care about overpaying by billions, but likely the equity partners that he has tried to court don't want to overpay significantly.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yes due diligence is necessary even after terms initially agreed upon. However, this is a topic that Elon has had clear eye about for a long long time. Market conditions have changed and that is a much more obvious and likely explanation than that he had a new revelation about bots being widespread on Twitter. He may or may not care about overpaying by billions, but likely the equity partners that he has tried to court don't want to overpay significantly.

Of course they don't want to overpay, but due diligence was going to happen regardless.

You paint Elon as reckless in this matter, and he's not.

 

[30seconds]

I don’t think the large investment funds really like the idea of Elon taking on Twitter as either a CEO or owner.

If he comes back with some sort of revised offer then I think Tesla stock is hit again.

Will be an overhang until he comes back or says the takeover is over.

The bot thing may give him an out from paying the $1B breakup. As part of the deal twitter probably gave him a user estimate and some sort of statement that it is an accurate count. If it is largely inaccurate than Elon might be able to claim that it is a material mis-representation and void the breakup fee.

 

[bkp_duke]

TSLA is so being capped hard today.

Looking at all other EV players, at other tech stocks . . . they are all ZOOMING up. Not TSLA. Every time we get around $775, hard push down.

 

[thesmokingman]

Really wish tooday was one of those unleash the hounds days... but it's not in the cards. Still I'll take the 5%!!

 

[mongo]

How is that different from the normal goal each quarter to produce as much as humanly possible?

There is as many as possible, and then there are the quarters that end with e-mail encouraging White Zombie/ Drowning Pool levels of output or delivery by the EoQ deadline.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

TSLA is so being capped hard today.

Looking at all other EV players, at other tech stocks . . . they are all ZOOMING up. Not TSLA. Every time we get around $775, hard push down.

All this selling by Elon and others has probably reset the naked short position of MM's. I know that's what I'd do if I were a TSLA-crushing algobot.

So 2 months ago they might have had a massive naked short position, but are neutral today(yesterday morning). That means they can short again without too much concern.

I really think this is the essence of TSLA price movements. MM's effectively naked short for months on end with no problem. Then it eventually becomes a problem.

 

[Ogre]

I spent years working on farms where I used side loading often to reach tools and equipment. The other item I will miss is not being able to sit wide objects across the sides of the truck (e.g. fencing panels that are too wide for the bed - which might now need to be carried by a trailer). I'd also be interested to see how it works if you have working dogs that are normally chained to the bed at the rear of the cabin while driving at speed - possibly you'd need to climb into the back now to secure them. There will be some adaptation required and some tasks may well be worse.

But at the end of the day the Cybertruck works for the vast majority of people and is so popular that it doesn't matter if certain tasks not performed by many people are more difficult. It will be sold out for many, many years to come.

There's also a ton of benefits of the CT that will far exceed what current trucks can do. The ramp will make loading easier for many items, powering tools without a generator, the lockable rear, the carrying capacity, not having a radiator that clogs up with dirt/grass seed (hopefully), etc.)

I'm with you on pulling tools over the side of the bed, but we have a frunk and possibly sail pillar storage to help mitigate that issue.

For the dogs, why not just close the vault so they are safer, not chained up, and not a public nuisance? Doubly so if there is an openable window into the cabin.

Ultimately until the truck ships we won't know what the solutions are to this problem. But so long as Tesla ships them and the cost of ownership is competitive with ICE, it won't matter. They will sell like mad.

 

[GOVA]

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas breaks down shares of Tesla | CNBC (5:32)

Adam Jonas' opening statement:

Just look at the comments section under this video. Bots galore.

 

[Electroman]

If twitter mis represented the 5% fake stuff, perhaps Lord Musk need not pay 1B surrender fee.

Problem is what is considered as a Bot will vary between Twitter management and Musk. So it isn’t a straightforward slam dunk. A better option is to take the $1B hit and negotiate a lower bid by $10B less

 

[2Pearls]

This is the time for due diligence.

Raise your hand if you have done corporate purchases? I have. You spend a LOT of time digging into the nitty-gritty after you have reached a deal. And it is common to modify the deal if the original description doesn't match what is discovered.

I've specifically bought companies JUST for their customer base (buying out a competitor), and when you get into looking at the customers and find out that some may not be legit, you back those out from the paid lot proportionally.

Twitter wants this deal, they will be scrambling behind the scenes right now in order to validate how many bots they have on service.

I have no problem if THIS is the time to do Due Diligence (although normally, you do not make an offer till you have gone through everything), but, not public, do it private!

 

[Krugerrand]

Because people - I hope Elon drags this Twitter puppy around the block 80085 times, until all the opinions everyone just has to express bore them to death. Basically. Literally.

Have y’all ever been able to get through a single day, 24 whole hours, without flogging one of your opinions? Try it. It can be super enlightening, and wholly relieving for those around you to not have to listen to opinions.

No, I have no opinion one way or another about Elon’s purchase of Twitter, how it may or may not affect my TSLA shares or Tesla investment. I also don’t have an opinion about Johnny or Amber. ‍

AND, I will buy some platform shoes if I need to pull something from the back of my Cybertruck. These should work.

 

[thesmokingman]

Twitter should just name Elon it's CEO and get it over with, no sale just come fix our *sugar*.

 

[bkp_duke]

Someone's buying . . .

 

[thx1139]

Problem is what is considered as a Bot will vary between Twitter management and Musk. So it isn’t a straightforward slam dunk. A better option is to take the $1B hit and negotiate a lower bid by $10B less

Bot should be pretty easy. It is no human being behind the account. Trolls are different. Trolls are humans that have one or more account and they exist to stir up trouble and push misinformation.

 

[thesmokingman]

Someone's buying . . .

Oh snap, look at that pop!

 

[Ogre]

No, I have no opinion one way or another about Elon’s purchase of Twitter, how it may or may not affect my TSLA shares or Tesla investment. I also don’t have an opinion about Johnny or Amber. ‍

Is the dress blue or gold?

I mean did we ever really see the dress in proper lighting?