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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Big question is whether we FSD competition? Or will this be more like Windows where Tesla licenses out FSD and gets 95% of the ADAS market? Will carmakers start selling cars with "FSD Ready"?
Seems like Apple and Google (and maybe Amazon?) are working on this problem and... years? behind. Musk seems to think this is incredibly difficult to solve without billions of miles sensor input. If he's right (and I suspect he is), that means almost every other effort to date is doomed to fail.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Yeah, but it's all relative. Perhaps I'm too optimistic(ha!), but I see the feeding frenzy from last week as a glimpse at how far the wider market is willing to let this thing drop in a bear market before buying. Sure it was $680-750, which is a joke, but it was a legit frenzy that required a ton of capping to cool it off.Considering TSLA is now down 7-8X the macros, there's really no point in even entertaining that hypothetical
Obviously when selling pressure/negative sentiment flips, it will rally hard. But there's no way around how it's traded for the past two weeks, severely underperforming day after day and to me, it's pretty clear that the stock is very vulnerable to a quick 20-25% drop if the macro's take another leg lower.
Wall St a crystal clear roadmap to how to trade TSLA for the next two weeks at least, if not the next month and a half. There's no real catalyst for the stock until news comes out that Shanghai is back to full production. Until then, it's open season for dropping the stock on any given day......or if the past two weeks are any indication......every day.
I would like to think that Thursday was in fact the bottom, but if you're on margin, you definitely cannot be confident in the stock given the Friday and today.
Everyone's standing around pretending they don't need any TSLA shares because right now they can. No one's really looking to buy anything, but the microsecond that sentiment turns, it's zoom time. All these clowns know the big returns are coming from the top GOOG/TSLA/AAPL/QQQ names. It's just a game of chicken right now.
Keep your chin up.....Putin could die literally tomorrow!
The day-to-day noise really isn't that impactful to me. We've seen even very recently that Tesla can be capped and hit very negatively compared to the wider market... then far outpace on a big rally. IE on Jan 3 the Nasdaq hit 15,800 and Tesla was at 1200. Tesla had a low of 756 on March 14th. A ~37% draw down compared a ~20% drawdown for the Nasdaq. Tesla then peaked at 1150 3 weeks later a ~52% jump while the Nasdaq peaked (a few days earlier) at a ~17% jump.
Here's another thing that points to a rally soon... the Nasdaq has been below the 20 week mid point of the Bollinger band for the whole year. That is 20 straight weeks. Covid drop had 8 weeks to revisit mid BB. 2018 had 16 weeks. 2016 had 10. 2008 had 24 (there was another 8 week drop after... but that was the bottom). So you could really call that 32. 02 had a 33 week period. It is also interesting that out of these, only 2016 didn't revisit the top edges of the BB band within 10 weeks (it got about 75% of the way there and it did visit the top in 14 weeks though).
There could always be another leg down, but we are due for a rally. With where we have been the last two weeks it should start a week or two after. This week is monthly expirations that have some negative pressure on the market, but the rally could easily start this week too and signs are there it could. Next week has very high odds of a strong rally. When it goes, it should hit the mid point of the 20 week BB (sitting 13,400 for Nasdaq though strong resistance will be around 12,400). If we get a continuation a move to an upper of 14,800 isn't out of the question in the following 6-10 weeks.
I think there is also a very strong chance that if the rally starts this week, we could see a gamma squeeze up that takes about a month to six weeks to unwind. There are a lot of bearish bets out there and I think we know Tesla has a higher impact than the rest of the market.
Here's another thing that points to a rally soon... the Nasdaq has been below the 20 week mid point of the Bollinger band for the whole year. That is 20 straight weeks. Covid drop had 8 weeks to revisit mid BB. 2018 had 16 weeks. 2016 had 10. 2008 had 24 (there was another 8 week drop after... but that was the bottom). So you could really call that 32. 02 had a 33 week period. It is also interesting that out of these, only 2016 didn't revisit the top edges of the BB band within 10 weeks (it got about 75% of the way there and it did visit the top in 14 weeks though).
There could always be another leg down, but we are due for a rally. With where we have been the last two weeks it should start a week or two after. This week is monthly expirations that have some negative pressure on the market, but the rally could easily start this week too and signs are there it could. Next week has very high odds of a strong rally. When it goes, it should hit the mid point of the 20 week BB (sitting 13,400 for Nasdaq though strong resistance will be around 12,400). If we get a continuation a move to an upper of 14,800 isn't out of the question in the following 6-10 weeks.
I think there is also a very strong chance that if the rally starts this week, we could see a gamma squeeze up that takes about a month to six weeks to unwind. There are a lot of bearish bets out there and I think we know Tesla has a higher impact than the rest of the market.
Great find!
Elon has said several times that "they have no ideal what's coming" and I belive that we don't have the proper idea either.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I don't understand it enough to even have an opinion, but my gut tells me FSD won't be some magic recipe TSLA is going to be able to purely license and profit from exclusively.
From the start this whole FSD effort reminded me of Karl Friston and Free Energy Principle. Less a technology and more a new way of thinking about transportation. If Elon and team can solve FSD and mine the data, they'll naturally need to integrate with as much of the environment as possible. That means sharing software and data.
I'm also of the opinion that once TSLA hits around $10T market cap, society will be ready for some big leaps forward and we won't be worried as much about marketshare. Live long and prosper.
I'm cool with the 700s before the stock split. Just don't let Tsla go to 4 digits again or else Elon may just end up buying Coke to put the cocaine back in.
This Twitter deal is going to be called off any day now.... there will be legal battle noise, but it will be dying soon.
Makes sense, Prum is the home of Grohmann, an automation company Tesla bought around 6 years ago.
Tesla Automation | Accelerating a Sustainable Energy Future
Now down 10x macros.
Not that it matters since I'm planning to just HODL, but I am perplexed and annoyed with current sentiment and trading of TSLA as it relates to macros.
And volume is not anemic, which would provide a sensible reason.
Not that it matters since I'm planning to just HODL, but I am perplexed and annoyed with current sentiment and trading of TSLA as it relates to macros.
And volume is not anemic, which would provide a sensible reason.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Because the FUD machine may try to make something of the cells in the scrap bin they are most likely empty cell cans for assembly testing. Vent holes are not capped and complete cells would probably not be put in with other materials.
Yes, I was just about to point this out myself
Tesla Über Alles:
The car sharing service Uber with a tweet: Say “Yesla” to Tesla! Comfort Electric — a shockingly cool, elevated experience. Request a premium EV to move sustainably and in style. Together we can be part of the climate solution. #GoGet
The car sharing service Uber with a tweet: Say “Yesla” to Tesla! Comfort Electric — a shockingly cool, elevated experience. Request a premium EV to move sustainably and in style. Together we can be part of the climate solution. #GoGet
Could be because markets don't like uncertainty. And Elon is discussing with Twitter boss Parag how to determine the amount of bots on Twitter. The discussion being done using Twitter (of course) so that everyone can follow. Giving ammo to the Twitter vs Tesla FUD crowd.
IMHO this too will pass. So HODL.
It really has nothing to do with Twitter.
It's Wall St making the most of what is likely to be their last chance at getting shares at such a discount. They're going to create as much FUD about the twitter drama, Shanghai shutdowns, TSLA's growth story being over, TSLA's Q2 earnings being a disaster....hell we'll probably going to see plenty of articles speculating that Tesla will post a loss for Q2.
Wall St got gifted a golden goose for Q2 with the China covid shutdowns combined with the macro's going down. They're going to make the absolute most of this opportunity. They're going to beat this stock over the head with selling pressure nonstop for the next month and a half and spoof non stop to cap any rallies. The last hour of trading being a perfect example today.
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CyberDutchie
Active Member
TSLA stock is a disaster right now, I’m not one of those here who is happy and saying buying opportunity. If this continues I probably get a maintenance call resulting forced selling. I really hate all the FUD and manipulation that’s happening right now…
Don't be too quick too sell some like I did. In retrospect should have waited for the actual call.
Have made it a mission to get those shares back via LEAPs.
Perhaps buying some cheap puts is enough to hold you over?
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