Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

so TSLA is going down and down. For those of you picking up share, what is your logic to buy more in times of all the noises?

When good stocks are beat up, the chances for large gains increase.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

To tha ..... !!!

 

[ZachF]

The Nasdaq holding 11,100 (again so far) might be a sign of bottom too. On the 20th we shot below, but stabilized at 11,100 before rallying in power hour. On the 12th, we hit a low of 11,108. We have hit this number 3 times in less than 2 weeks without breaking down so far. Now the more times support is tested, it tends to weaken. That could easily be going on here and the market could break to the next level down.

Now is this a triple bottom? We are clearly in a downtrend. So check there. The lows are basically flat. Check there. The rebound here really needs to get to 11,500 to show the resistance. 2/3 it has hit there with a false breakout. Lastly, there needs to be decreasing volume. The Nasdaq on the 12th had ~6.7b in volume. On the 20th 5.4b in volume. Now today's volume thus far is slightly outpacing the 20th's, but is dying off now. If we end up under 5b in volume (and I think there is a good chance), we might be seeing the formation.

11,100 is basically the 2019 peak adjusted for inflation.

 

[Nocturnal]

Good news. The bottom is in.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

so TSLA is going down and down. For those of you picking up share, what is your logic to buy more in times of all the noises?

...um, the fact that Tesla is now a money-printing machine as proven in Q1 which doesn't care about the macro-economy or supply issues since they've pre-sold every car they can make clear thru 2023 and they did the hard work to get long term contracts on their raw materials.

 

[ZachF]

...um, the fact that Tesla is now a money-printing machine as proven in Q1 which doesn't care about the macro-economy or supply issues since they've pre-sold every car they can make clear thru 2023 and they did the hard work to get long term contracts on their raw materials.

I don’t think many dumb analysts appreciate the following:

1. Tesla makes ~$10,000 of profit now on every car it makes.

2. Tesla already has enough capacity built to ~double current production.

3. Tesla has basically already sold out the production during the time needed to ramp this capacity.

4. On top of this, Tesla has no debt.

 

[henchman24]

11,100 is basically the 2019 peak adjusted for inflation.

It is also (roughly) the August 2020 resistance then breakout that held and consolidated until the Nov 2020 breakout that started the long run.

All of this said... TA is astrology for men.

 

[replicant]

I see no problem responding to Qs and care bears. I am not here to change his mind, nor is he here to change ours. But lurkers or new members may not fully understand what is going on and we sure don't want the Q to dictate the narrative on red days.

Wait, how is Elon hiring or not hiring (and abusing or not abusing) a flight attendant at SpaceX a problem for Tesla?! If this is an issue, maybe Elon should learn to better separate his life with the public companies he's leading. I'm getting tired of his political opinions, which makes Tesla and its mission a bigger target everyday.

Why can't just have @tesla tweet things about the company (future products, roadmap, FSD releases, etc), which he can then freely retweet (within millisecond if he pleases)?

I'm starting to believe he actually likes being attacked (fairly or not) and he doesn't really care his companies are affected. He could certainly do better if we didn't encourage him to be a cult leader.

 

[ZachF]

Seriously?

Look at @ZachF post just a bit earlier. All the logic you need

Society will crumble if 17yos need to switch over to Instagram stories from Snapchat to share their best beer pong shots with their friends. Obv.

 

[Nocturnal]

It is also (roughly) the August 2020 resistance then breakout that held and consolidated until the Nov 2020 breakout that started the long run.

All of this said... TA is astrology for men.

Generally agree, I will say that it has some value in that it is an approximation of general human psychology. "this stock is lower than the lowest price it was at last month so that's bad". People won't admit they think this way, but I think they do. "support" is basically a less stupid way of saying "it is lower than it was before".

 

[cricketman]

I don’t think many dumb analysts appreciate the following:

1. Tesla makes ~$10,000 of profit now on every car it makes.

2. Tesla already has enough capacity built to ~double current production.

3. Tesla has basically already sold out the production during the time needed to ramp this capacity.

4. On top of this, Tesla has no debt.

Google is currently trading at a multiple of 18 times 2021 earnings. And Google is growing around 20% each year (actually 40% in 2021)

TSLA is being whacked down with the macro. Even if they did $20bn profit this year (higher end estimates) at a rate of 50% yoy growth. This gives a multiple at today's share price of 32.5. Which relative to Google seems about right

Basically don't panic. Both Tesla and Google are great places to keep your money in the mid to long term but it may be 3-5 years until we see multiples of 50-100 again

 

[Accident]

More evidence of Berlin ramping up. Model Y deliveries increasing at a steady pace, and now some early reports of exports to Israel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528832773359910912

 

[capster]

so TSLA is going down and down. For those of you picking up share, what is your logic to buy more in times of all the noises?

Because, historically, the best time to buy TSLA is in times of all the noises.

A day or two ago, I had a neighbor who is a money manager, affiliated with one of the big NY investment houses, badger me about getting out of TSLA by making the usual ‘the sky is falling’ noises.

He was a bit steamed by my complete dismissal of his fearmongering and, perhaps more so, by my serenity—this last due to my thinking "Bullish" and something else bull related.

In my experience, having the Street reach out and try to lean on folks personally (the last time for me was emails from a ‘personal banker’ from my bank) is a good sign especially with all the noises from elsewhere.

 

[Iain]

I don’t think many dumb analysts appreciate the following:

1. Tesla makes ~$10,000 of profit now on every car it makes.

2. Tesla already has enough capacity built to ~double current production.

3. Tesla has basically already sold out the production during the time needed to ramp this capacity.

4. On top of this, Tesla has no debt.

All facts but you have analysts on TV saying they would never buy the stock because it's valuation is based on a cult leader and he's unraveling. We can all see the obvious and hopefully sooner than later big money managers will be forced to.

 

[larmor]

so TSLA is going down and down. For those of you picking up share, what is your logic to buy more in times of all the noises?

Buy low and sell high. Despite macro headwinds, tesla has opened and is ramping production in two new factories, thus doubling output. Each car that is made is all ready sold. Lithium extraction and ways to do it cheaper were illustrated on battery day, some time ago. Nickel supply has been secured all ready. FSD is now a software problem, and continuing to learn. Macro headwinds do not impede AI learning process. Twitter is not the only place that algobots visit, just saying.

 

[Cherry Wine]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1529135843289473024

For those not familiar with Ackman:

'Hell is coming': how Bill Ackman's TV interview tanked the markets and made him $2.6bn | Hedge funds | The Guardian

US hedge fund manager’s doom-laden TV appearance about coronavirus crisis sparked frenzied selling

amp.theguardian.com

 

[capster]

Personally I believe the Q2 P&D numbers will indeed provide opportunities for the shorts to spin the (lower) production into a "Tesla has stopped growing" fairy tale.

On the other hand I am very optimistic regarding the Q2 earnings report, since it will IMO show very decent margins/profit/FCF given the held back production in the quarter. If Tesla provides us with solid updates on the Q2 call regarding current production levesl of Shanghai, Berlin and Austin (and they surprise to the upside), I think this will at least put a solid floor under the SP. More likely we should regain some ground.

IMO this compares to Q2 2020: Fremont was in lockdown from March 23rd until somewhere in Q2. Q2 P&D report resulted in an SP rally. Q2 ER slingshotted TSLA to the moon (with the help of later quarters which proved the numbers were not a fluke).

The set-up this time feels very similar. Q2 financials could show Wall Street that Tesla executes well even in an unstable macro environment. Add a stronger Q3 and Q4 (should be given Berlin and Austin) and we can pop the champagne by year end.

Do we know for sure that the production numbers will be lower?

I was under the impression that Tesla‘s production was rate limited by components (batteries, chips, …) and not necessarily by factory capacity. If so and in theory, they may be able to make up for lost ground this quarter.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Basically don't panic. Both Tesla and Google are great places to keep your money in the mid to long term but it may be 3-5 years until we see multiples of 50-100 again

It's more the opposite. We're growing earnings at an absurd rate today, but that ends around a year from now. 2Q21 earnings were $1.45 and will more than double in 2Q22, but are unlikely to double again in 2Q23.

Therefore the multiple should be at least 150 right now, and drift down from there as earnings get crazier. If TSLA has a 50-100 multiple in 3 years, thats a share price around $4,000 (6x today).

TSLA is usually much further "out in front" of future performance than that, so it's logical we'll see a 150 multiple in the near term and then perhaps never again after 2023.

 

[Ogre]

You need some more Zen training I am not talking about FSD for cars, but Tesla Bot navigation. Of course Tesla rules on FSD for cars and hopefully solve that problem.

But bots walking around in a warehouse is not cars driving in Los Angelas....so I was replying to someone's comment that Tesla was a leader in this because they have lots of training data and I am saying they don't...they don't have billions of walked miles by Tesla Bots controlled by humans to use to train their Neural Nets like they do for cars.

They have huge amounts of training in recognizing objects in real time in meatspace.

Once you can recognize objects, you can start predicting their paths and build concepts like object permanence into your models. Having a 3D model of the real world with path prediction means you can build out collision avoidance algorithms.

The actual navigation isn't the problem. The big problem is translating meatspace into vectors (with object permanence). Once you do that, getting from point A to point B isn't a huge problem. There are piles of robots which can navigate buildings and even streets already. Most of them with much simpler models (and limits) than what Tesla has.

 

[bkp_duke]

More evidence of Berlin ramping up. Model Y deliveries increasing at a steady pace, and now some early reports of exports to Israel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528832773359910912

View attachment 808200

Do we know how these got to Israel? Truck down to port in Italy/Croatia then put on a boat? Did someone look at a VIN, is that how we they are Berlin-made?