Let's think about the context. In 2019 S/X declined about 29% to 63k units. Meanwhile, Model 3 climbed about 42% to 215k unit, and Model Y and Shanghai were just ramping up. Model S/X was still a significant at about 23% of total units produced.
The question at this point was how Tesla could keep growing if S/X sales were in serious decline. Naturally, Musk would want to downplay the importance Model S/X production to the future of the company. Saying that's a halo car produced for sentimental reasons are nice talking points for trying to pivot away from a 29% y/y decline. Indeed the much bigger opportunity for Tesla at that time was to ramp up Model 3 in Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont.
The present context is different. In Q2 2022, Model S/X are only 6% to total auto production. The annual run rate this quarter is about 64k units per year, well below 100k capacity. It is clear that growing unit sales of S/X is not critical for Tesla to grow total 50% per year and could even be a distraction in climate of widespread supply chain problems. Moreover, Tesla seems to be throwing almost all of its growth ambition on ramping Model Y. Right now the Model Y is more efficient to manufacture than the Model 3, and the S/X are even less efficient to manufacture than the Model 3. So it is a very different situation now.
If Model S/X production were to fall 30% to just 45k in 2023, would anyone care? Would Musk need to downplay it? At a mere 3% of unit production, analysts my rather ask, why Tesla even bothers to continue the lines. We'll have to wait and see how Musk spins these issues in the future. All I'm saying is that the issues were different when S/X where 23% of production than they will be in a few years when its just 3% of production. In my experience, Musk is quite capable of changing his words as contexts change.
