Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

Wonder if MMD can keep stock price below Max Pain (180) at the open today.

 

[15Peter20]

Did you spend much time hashing this over to come up with such a writing style, or is this the first draft of some high school student just getting all the diarrhea out at once all at once at one time the first time?

why not sit on this for a day longer, flesh it out get it proofread, then repost?
charts?
examples you looked at?
proof of 9-11x?
get rid of any wackadoodle stuff like bipolar psychiatric as it only points to the inner workings of such a chaotic scramble over the keyboard writer

Who took the jam out of your doughnut?

There are loads of ‘Reasons to be cheerful’ posts in this thread, this is just another. I’m happy for a bit of blind optimism in amongst more analytical posts. All seem to have similar worth with the current state of things.

 

[Mengy]

this is definitely not investing advice and very likely to be proven wrong. i am putting it here because i study charts and historical precedents and right now i am comparing tesla to apple, amazon and nvidia in various time frames like 2008, 2018 etc and over 50% drops in 12 to 13 months timeframes. Unless we are in a 1999 to 2002 time period, most drops of similar magnitude have been followed by 9X to 11X stock price appreciations over next 3 years.
this is a very crude back of envelope working hypothesis but i am struck by fact that we have 3 very symmetric drawdowns over 13 months in current downturn which started in november 2021. last 4 months down for tesla and amazon only. pretty unusual to get 4 months down months in a row.
this is very big picture on monthly and weekly charts and not intended as any prognostication. In any case it has zero to little effect on short term market trends but more psychological benefit of serving as light at end of tunnel. Of course, if this bear run happens to be an exception and we end up in a 2014 through 2019 timeframe then we probably wouldn’t know it until after the fact (like everything else in markets) but even in that time frame , we had significant rallies and great trading opportunities. I understand the futures are down and China Covid deal is looking bad, but I have a really hard time understanding how we will keep on going down and down in face of Tesla‘s extremely strong fundamentals and the fact we have had a textbook 60% downturn over 13 months
i assume i will be constantly wrong but will continue to refine my research
very interesting stuff especially for those of us who believe Tesla stock in short term is extremely manipulated. So, why so much symmetry. I don’t know but historical perspective seems to be a fairly decent way to place long term bets
At the risk of making this post long, if I look at all this from psychiatric standpoint, then you have external Bipolar like psychopathology in face of strong fundamentals. That combination is unlikely to persist forever. Either you have a very sick patient with multiple relapses or here in case of Tesla a very strong growth story with Bipolar traders who appear to make it look worse than it actually may be. There is a certain degree of utility in applying psychiatric principles to stock market, because traders behave in a very bipolar fashion which can be used to one’s advantage provided you can successfully monitor and control your own emotional responses. So from a practical standpoint, those of us who are holding onto Tesla long term with or without trading are not really fazed because it is a matter of time before the stock recovers but still it’s not fun to be in the very last part of a severe 13 month melancholic depressive episode with only temporary relief. Like all mood disorders, this is bound to end, because bipolar traders cannot help, but become eventually manic with very little reason
This is all Sunday night armchair speculation, tbh

I don't buy into blending psychiatry with investing, nor do I believe in TA so reasoning by analogy isn't something I normally do.

HOWEVER, you are correct that TSLA has been consistently walked down over the past year while it's fundamentals have gotten stronger quarter over quarter. The PE has fallen hard while the bottom line has improved drastically. At some point this behavior will change, it's a mathematical certainty the PE can not fall continuously while the company grows at this pace.

Now, the PE might never go up again either, it might hit a level and stay relatively flat for many years. This would of course result in the share price skyrocketing every quarte while the financials go up and away. Or the PE might climb too alongside the financials going up. Either way, the SP will go up someday, and with all this compression it's likely to go WAY up.

Someday. Could be next month, could be next year, could be we trade sideways until 2026. BUT, it WILL go up in time.

Like always, just hold and enjoy the ride.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597163176797229056

.6th AUS ship and 5 more to come
.The recent passage of AUS EV bill, which was retroactive(after July 22) means no stalling by customers.
.22 Ships in Mr. Franco's list
.there is supposed to be another Baltimore/EU S/X shipment per Mr. Miserables thread.
.Japan/Gulf ships etc not in list
.Mr WU Wa has no new ship sightings and the lots in the docks are empty(no activity)

.. Waiting on Troy's delivery updates

cheers!!

 

[Discoducky]

This person usually is spot on...might be something, maybe the revamp is a robotaxi interior?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597215994124042241

 

[Max Plaid]

This person usually is spot on...might be something, maybe the revamp is a robotaxi interior?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597215994124042241

As far as I know just copy-pastes the Bloomberg Terminal feed

Which is very, very helpful indeed, he was away for a few weeks and sorely missed

 

[Chenkers]

This person usually is spot on...might be something, maybe the revamp is a robotaxi interior?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597215994124042241

Possibly reducing the cost low enough to have more model 3s compliant under the IRA threshold.

This unusually bullish sounding article from Reuters below gives more details. Says the new simplified Model 3 will go into production at the Shanghai Gigafactory in the third quarter of 2023 with a start date for Fremont unclear.
Exclusive: Tesla readies revamped Model 3 with project 'Highland' -sources

 

[Singuy]

This person usually is spot on...might be something, maybe the revamp is a robotaxi interior?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597215994124042241

But the original source is Reuters, and their sources are people familiar with the matter..

Also revamping interior, reducing cost...could be two separate statements. Revamping interior and finally transitioning m3 to gigacasting is most likely

 

[Nocturnal]

Possibly reducing the cost low enough to have more model 3s compliant under the IRA threshold.

This unusually bullish sounding article from Reuters below gives more details. Says the new simplified Model 3 will go into production at the Shanghai Gigafactory in the third quarter of 2023 with Fremont later.
Exclusive: Tesla readies revamped Model 3 with project 'Highland' -sources

Highland?

There can be only one. One piece casting. Done deal, you heard it here first.

 

[nativewolf]

Possibly reducing the cost low enough to have more model 3s compliant under the IRA threshold.

This unusually bullish sounding article from Reuters below gives more details. Says the new simplified Model 3 will go into production at the Shanghai Gigafactory in the third quarter of 2023 with a start date for Fremont unclear.
Exclusive: Tesla readies revamped Model 3 with project 'Highland' -sources

Cost pressure in China

 

[Discoducky]

Highland?

There can be only one. One piece casting. Done deal, you heard it here first.

HA, I was thinking along the same lines, but in terms of 'cutting the head off', this version removes the human from the driving experience (aka Robotaxi)

 

[nativewolf]

Highland?

There can be only one. One piece casting. Done deal, you heard it here first.

Since there is a highland vehicle already I doubt the name sticks

 

[jerry33]

Possibly reducing the cost low enough to have more model 3s compliant under the IRA threshold.

This unusually bullish sounding article from Reuters below gives more details. Says the new simplified Model 3 will go into production at the Shanghai Gigafactory in the third quarter of 2023 with a start date for Fremont unclear.
Exclusive: Tesla readies revamped Model 3 with project 'Highland' -sources

Because it's from Reuters, I wouldn't trust it till it's official. Might just be Reuters' way to reduce Model 3 sales while people hold off for the supposed new version.

 

[JRP3]

This person usually is spot on...might be something, maybe the revamp is a robotaxi interior?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597215994124042241

You think there is any real chance of an autonomous robotaxi on the road for 2023? I say no chance at all.

 

[juanmedina]

You think there is any real chance of an autonomous robotaxi on the road for 2023? I say no chance at all.

geofenced just like Cruise or Waymo I don't see why not.

 

[JRP3]

geofenced just like Cruise or Waymo I don't see why not.

Doesn't need a new interior if it's that limited.

 

[Cobbler]

This person usually is spot on...might be something, maybe the revamp is a robotaxi interior?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597215994124042241

That codename popped up some months ago. Estimated release date moved up. This news could be a rehash of that leaked table.
Or it validates it even more.

 

[willow_hiller]

Because it's from Reuters, I wouldn't trust it till it's official. Might just be Reuters' way to reduce Model 3 sales while people hold off for the supposed new version.

It's not a new rumor either. Has everyone forgotten this "leak" of Tesla's product roadmap from April? The news at the time was focused on the hypothetical cyber-van, but under Gen III, it also had the "Highland" Model 3 revision.

But it turned out not to be an internal leak, but an automotive industry forecaster: http://www.globalautoforecasts.com/afs_pm/addons/ProgramDirNAm.pdf

 

[Discoducky]

You think there is any real chance of an autonomous robotaxi on the road for 2023? I say no chance at all.

My 2 cents...With the AI day architecture, they'll either get there within about 6 to 9 months, or hit yet another local maxima and have to re-architect. Why? They have all the pieces, but each has tolerances, when you stack those, it ends up making mistakes. Each team is trying to start the march of 9's and they think they are now walking that path, that is why they've increased the beta. That is the only way to get the remaining 'edge case' data needed (one great training clip is worth thousands of bad clips)

 

[hobbes]

Highland?

There can be only one. One piece casting. Done deal, you heard it here first.

Context for other movie-illiterates like me:

There can be only one

"There can be only one" is the belief and motto among the immortals in the original Highlander film, its sequels and spin-offs. It implies that all immortals must fight and kill one another until only one remains standing; this "one" shall receive The Prize. Connor MacLeod first heard these...

highlander.fandom.com