Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dutchie]

Reading here about things like autonomous cars are still a decade away or that semi convoys are still at least five years away, makes me realize that some people here still have difficulty of understanding the concept of exponential growth.

 

[Mengy]

Btw, Starlink is now down worldwide.

My logs say: 15 minutes almost on the dot.

That's strange, my Starlink never went down here in PA. We were streaming YT vids on the TV, no interruption that we could tell...

Congrats on a good TSLA day everyone, feels good to see some positive action for a change!

 

[betstarship]

That's strange, my Starlink never went down here in PA. We were streaming YT vids on the TV, no interruption that we could tell...

Congrats on a good TSLA day everyone, feels good to see some positive action for a change!

You're lucky then! It was verified across multiple countries on Twitter...

 

[Mengy]

Ramping past 5,000. If they end Q4 at 5,000 per week, they could be ramping to 7000 per week by end of Q1.

Quick @Gigapress @StarFoxisDown! give me an updated uber-bullish production / earnings estimate for 2023.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598077332169773056

I must admit I find that number hard to believe, but if Tesla does manage 75K MY's out of Austin in Q1 2023 then HOLY MOLLY!!!!!!



That would be a tad bullish.

 

[lascavarian]

You're lucky then! It was verified across multiple countries on Twitter...

Down for 20 minutes starting at 3:56. Wise to be able to trade on a phone app in such cases. By far longest duration loss of service in my experience with the service which I have found reliable.

 

[Discoducky]

Down for 20 minutes starting at 3:56. Wise to be able to trade on a phone app in such cases. By far longest duration loss of service in my experience with the service which I have found reliable.

Same here, I thought it was the heavy snowfall, but the snow was melting off the terminal when I checked it.

Nearly missed selling some calls at the

 

[elasalle]

I must admit I find that number hard to believe, but if Tesla does manage 75K MY's out of Austin in Q1 2023 then HOLY MOLLY!!!!!!



That would be a tad bullish.

Is TSLA trying to get the IRA cancelled.
@ this rate, Mary/Union/Competition will insist it be cancelled

 

[JimS]

To put it in terms of shares before the 2020 split: Today's move was +$208.05 per share ($13.87 x 15) which is more than I paid for most of my shares in 2019!

I look forward to the day when retail investors who are in at a split adjusted $4XX a share, make a similar post to this one.

In the meantime, I’m looking forward to @Curt Renz posting those Musical Tesla Coils playing the William Tell Overture. (Actually, I couldn’t wait for that. I just re-visited his 11/4/2021 post just to remind me of the experience!)

 

[Prunesquallor]

Demand issues.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598083335905243138

 

[ElectricIAC]

Demand issues.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598083335905243138

Damn, I wish I had trunk cash like that to move metal.

Looks like it might be an outgoing configuration as well so that doesn’t help.

 

[Hock1]

Several forums have that capability. I'm not advocating it be changed to that format, just that one would have the option of viewing it that way if they chose to.

When one really thinks about it, this TMC board---"Tesla and the Investment World", is sorta like a miniature Twitter 1.0

 

[CorneliusXX]

I agree. Even though we appear to be on the cusp of a recession, worker shortages could very well continue. Our current unemployment rate (3.7%) is basically a historical low. It spiked during Covid, of course, but if Covid had never happened, this would be the longest low unemployment stretch since the time series I found was being tracked starting in 1948.

Baby Boomers are the largest demographic bulge we’ve had in 100 years and their absence from the workforce will be keenly felt for the next 20 or so years. The replacement generations are either not large enough (Gen-X), or haven’t accumulated enough work experience to be as productive (Millennials). You might have noticed that workers in general aren’t quite as on the ball as they were in the past – no it isn’t only your crotchety old-timer imagination, the young replacement workers are being thrust into jobs that more experienced people used to do since there aren’t enough experienced workers to go around. It isn’t young people’s fault, we were all similarly in-experienced when we were 20 years old.

As if Baby Boomer retirement wasn’t bad enough, another huge global trend is underway: The re-shoring of manufacturing into North America. Just like Germany recently discovered the problem of relying on Russian natural gas, US based companies are realizing that relying on China as the world’s manufacturer is also a bad idea.

China’s recent belligerence isn’t really the issue (although US sanctions against China can’t be discounted), it is that they have become unreliable. Between the state’s crackdown on its own tech industry and seemingly random and increasingly draconian Covid shutdowns even as the rest of the world has moved on, China has shown itself to be an unreliable manufacturing partner. It doesn’t help that Chinese wages have skyrocketed making them expensive as well. Even Apple is diversifying its manufacturing out of China.

So we will be seeing a lot of companies setting up shop in Mexico, Texas, Arizona, and (to a lesser extent) California in the next ten years exacerbating our already tight labor supply.

I'm not sure this matters a whole heck of a lot to Tesla though. Tesla is in the same boat working to attract a similar labor pool as their competitors. Tesla already has a fairly globally diversified manufacturing footprint, and in a few years, it'll be even more diversified.

The oldest millennial is now 40 - I see no evidence that the relatively inexperienced are receiving disproportionate wealth or power. That would only potentially happen once the boomers start ageing out. Biden is the generation before the boomers and even Trump only scraped in - It doesn't seem like a lot of power sharing with the real youth (30s and below) to me.

 

[thx1139]

I agree. Even though we appear to be on the cusp of a recession, worker shortages could very well continue. Our current unemployment rate (3.7%) is basically a historical low. It spiked during Covid, of course, but if Covid had never happened, this would be the longest low unemployment stretch since the time series I found was being tracked starting in 1948.

Baby Boomers are the largest demographic bulge we’ve had in 100 years and their absence from the workforce will be keenly felt for the next 20 or so years. The replacement generations are either not large enough (Gen-X), or haven’t accumulated enough work experience to be as productive (Millennials). You might have noticed that workers in general aren’t quite as on the ball as they were in the past – no it isn’t only your crotchety old-timer imagination, the young replacement workers are being thrust into jobs that more experienced people used to do since there aren’t enough experienced workers to go around. It isn’t young people’s fault, we were all similarly in-experienced when we were 20 years old.

As if Baby Boomer retirement wasn’t bad enough, another huge global trend is underway: The re-shoring of manufacturing into North America. Just like Germany recently discovered the problem of relying on Russian natural gas, US based companies are realizing that relying on China as the world’s manufacturer is also a bad idea.

China’s recent belligerence isn’t really the issue (although US sanctions against China can’t be discounted), it is that they have become unreliable. Between the state’s crackdown on its own tech industry and seemingly random and increasingly draconian Covid shutdowns even as the rest of the world has moved on, China has shown itself to be an unreliable manufacturing partner. It doesn’t help that Chinese wages have skyrocketed making them expensive as well. Even Apple is diversifying its manufacturing out of China.

So we will be seeing a lot of companies setting up shop in Mexico, Texas, Arizona, and (to a lesser extent) California in the next ten years exacerbating our already tight labor supply.

I'm not sure this matters a whole heck of a lot to Tesla though. Tesla is in the same boat working to attract a similar labor pool as their competitors. Tesla already has a fairly globally diversified manufacturing footprint, and in a few years, it'll be even more diversified.

Another thing that happened with Baby Boomers and COVID. Many of them were part of an unreported work force. Many provided childcare for grand children. The deaths of many older people because of COVID caused people to leave the workforce because paying for childcare wasnt worth it and also child care went up because of stronger demand for childcare. In our social circle I know 2 families that this directly hit. Tragic really because the grandfathers that did this werent that old and they refused to get vaccinated. Both caught COVID from family members. One from his daughter and one from his grandson.

 

[unk45]

as already mentioned - 200 people a day for a month is a very good sample size.

Sure, if they control for repeats, ability to buy and intentions to buy . Such online polls often do not make those controls which explains in part their famously flawed results. It is very expensive and intrusive to add those controls. Without them the value is about zero.
The logical equivalent is polling among members here and using that to generalize on Tesla attitudes. Fun fir us, perhaps, but useless.

 

[thesmokingman]

Demand issues.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598083335905243138

Yea, not surprised.

 

[SmokyPeat]

To the moon!!!

SpaceX set to launch two spacecraft to the Moon tonight – Ars Technica

arstechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[Krugerrand]

Green is nice but I'm not as easily impressed as cats are. I will raise an eyebrow when tsla is at a new all time high, not down 54%

Secretly the cat is not impressed even a little bit. However, the cat has learned that sometimes standards must be lowered. Full body lift for today’s action - and a yawn.

 

[unk45]

It has been so long since every single position in our portfolios has finished in the green - and most of them very handsomely - that I cannot recall it ever happening before. Not Ever. I keep some two score holdings across a very diverse spectrum.

And at the end of a month? That is some potent window dressing! Almost makes me not shudder to think of our upcoming monthly statements.

I’m in awe. There are many issues, but I looked a couple hours ago. For us everything, everywhere. We’re still down for the year.

 

[Cosmacelf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598090996281413638

The corpo wars have been called off.

 

[AudubonB]

Ha! I've got four stocks that were red today! Wait a minute, is that a good thing or bad?

It depends. Are those the ones you're short?