Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

We are in an exciting decade. And this is the slow version, where the others don't keep up with Tesla. It goes even faster if they do.

View attachment 890164

Your own work I assume?

 

[Stretch2727]

So, I would summarize it like that:

Model/Seats	Base Price End 2022 USD	IRA - Applicable MSRP Limit USD	My guess for Battery for 2023 Model Year
3 RWD / 5	46‘990	55‘000	LFP from CATL at least until March 2023
3 LR / 5	- (possibly 55‘990 before discontinuiation, I am not sure)	55‘000	2170 from GIGA Nevada
3 P / 5	62‘990	Not eligible	2170 from GIGA Nevada or overseas or model will be discontinued
Y AWD / 5	-	55‘000 - will be possibly exceeded	2170 from GIGA Nevada until 4680 production is ramped. Not sure if this configuration will be introduced
Y LR / 5	65‘990	55‘000 - will be possibly exceeded	2170 from GIGA Nevada or possibly also from overseas if MSRP Limit is exceeded. Configuration could also be discontiunued
Y P / 5	69‘990	55‘000 - will be possibly exceeded	2170 from GIGA Nevada or possibly also from overseas if MSRP Limit is exceeded. Configuration could also be discontiunued
Y AWD / 7	-	80‘000	4680 from Kato Road or Austin or 2170 from GIGA Nevada
Y LR / 7	68‘990	80‘000	2170 from GIGA Nevada
Y P / 7	-	80‘000	2170 from GIGA Nevada

I don‘t expect significant price cuts for exisiting models. Only the prices for the reintroduced 3 LR and for the new Y AWD 5 seater (if introduced) will be lower than without the IRA.

Or a RWD Y 5 seater with the 4680 under $55K.

They will probably just make the 7 seat standard on the AWD LR Y as this is what everyone will order as you net $4500. A few seats is probably $400-500 cost. Our government at work.

 

[wipster]

My dude, those (the latter) are the very initalisms to which I alluded that reside alongside acronyms under the umbrella of abbreviations (along with things like St., vs. and Rd. which I natively macro expand).
*at least that's how some define them Abbreviations vs. Acronyms vs. Initialisms - The Blue Book of Grammar and Punctuation

Abbreviation vs. Acronym vs. Initialism (Grammar Rules)

After reading that @mongo, my brain hurts..

 

[Cattledog]

So name a few thing you are unhappy with Elon's execution at Tesla?

Are you unhappy with production? Profit margins? Future investments? Direction Tesla is taking the next few years? Like what Elon signs off as a CEO you think he is going the wrong direction and thinks he should be voted out?

Also can you name a few CEOs who tweeted their stock price up? AMD is down 70%, have Lisa Su done anything on tweeter that have rescued the share price or should we vote her out too?

She's pretty great, I say keep her and someone pay the $11/month to get her a Twitter checkmark.

 

[dhanson865]

You’re welcome.

PS: WYSIWYG (or ..P) , SNAFU, FUD are acronyms: each can be pronounced as a standalone word.

GM (in any of its meanings), AAA, MSRP, WTF, PS itself - those are abbreviations: one has to say each letter.

Initialism.

Oh and fwiw I consider URL an initialism, if you pronounce it similar to earl with a U in place of ea then I disagree it's U R L every time for me.

 

[Captkerosene]

Encouraging confirmation.

Or … end of tax loss selling?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Or a RWD Y 5 seater with the 4680 under $55K.

They will probably just make the 7 seat standard on the AWD LR Y as this is what everyone will order as you net $4500. A few seats is probably $400-500 cost. Our government at work.

If only Tesla used a supplier for seats. I’d invest in them!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yep.

70% down this year but we need 300%+ up next year to get back to where we were.

TSLA: "Hold my Teslaquila."

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Have been reading about Tesla Energy lately.

In one of today's tweets, Tesla indicates "Opened Megafactory, our new Megapack factory in Lathrop, CA—capable of producing 10k Megapack units/year"

Seems promising, but does Tesla currently have the cell supply to reach the factory capacity of 10k Megapacks?

 

[AndrewZ]

Or a RWD Y 5 seater with the 4680 under $55K.

They will probably just make the 7 seat standard on the AWD LR Y as this is what everyone will order as you net $4500. A few seats is probably $400-500 cost. Our government at work.

A few seats is probably $400-500 cost right now but just wait until the upholstery industry catches wind of this, third-row seat futures will explode to the upside

 

[Curt Renz]

Or … end of tax loss selling?

For tax purposes, a stock sale is made on the trade date, not the settlement date. Therefore, 2022 tax loss harvesting can continue through tomorrow.

Stock is considered purchased or sold for tax purposes on its trade date,

 

[ElectricIAC]

A few seats is probably $400-500 cost right now but just wait until the upholstery industry catches wind of this, third-row seat futures will explode to the upside

Look for stock ticker under TRSH. I’d buy it.

This is not financial advise.

 

[Prunesquallor]

My dude, those (the latter) are the very initalisms to which I alluded that reside alongside acronyms under the umbrella of abbreviations (along with things like St., vs. and Rd. which I natively macro expand).
*at least that's how some define them Abbreviations vs. Acronyms vs. Initialisms - The Blue Book of Grammar and Punctuation

Abbreviation vs. Acronym vs. Initialism (Grammar Rules)

SMDH

 

[ggr]

You’re welcome.

PS: WYSIWYG (or ..P) , SNAFU, FUD are acronyms: each can be pronounced as a standalone word.

GM (in any of its meanings), AAA, MSRP, WTF, PS itself - those are abbreviations: one has to say each letter.

Not if you're Australian, we can pronounce anything.

Edit: Had this discussion with people at Bell Labs about "fsck" (File System Consistency checK) back around '77. They didn't understand what we were saying. Pronounced somewhat like Andre the Giant's character in the Princess Bride.

 

[mongo]

Have been reading about Tesla Energy lately.

In one of today's tweets, Tesla indicates "Opened Megafactory, our new Megapack factory in Lathrop, CA—capable of producing 10k Megapack units/year"

Seems promising, but does Tesla currently have the cell supply to reach the factory capacity of 10k Megapacks?

Wouldn't doubt it via outside suppliers. They use large format LFP, not 2170 or 4680s.

 

[Singuy]

A few seats is probably $400-500 cost right now but just wait until the upholstery industry catches wind of this, third-row seat futures will explode to the upside

This law just increases seat count by about 25% of one particular trim in the U.S only which equates to like 50k more seats. In the grand scheme of things where hundreds of millions of seats are made per year, this is a drop in the bucket and I wouldn't trade based on this news.

 

[ggr]

I must have partaken of those stiff ones I’d mentioned, as I’ve no idea what TLA is supposed to mean.

It's a nicer version of FFLA. Three Letter Acronym. IBM documentation used to refer to an AMD (Air Movement Device) to cool their computers, more commonly known as a "fan".

 

[StealthP3D]

Al Root just lost a huge amount of journalistic credibility. Writing a whole article on a mistaken impression with no actual research - then, when called out and corrected on Twitter this morning, said he was looking into it - but still no retraction yet.

So, this must mean Barron's has a demand problem now. And Reuters is coming out with a story worrying about demand for Barron's. Right? /s

 

[Optimeer]

Have been reading about Tesla Energy lately.

In one of today's tweets, Tesla indicates "Opened Megafactory, our new Megapack factory in Lathrop, CA—capable of producing 10k Megapack units/year"

Seems promising, but does Tesla currently have the cell supply to reach the factory capacity of 10k Megapacks?

Yes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605813167698808833

It is reasonable to expect a ramp-up over several quarters.

 

[hobbes]

Have been reading about Tesla Energy lately.

In one of today's tweets, Tesla indicates "Opened Megafactory, our new Megapack factory in Lathrop, CA—capable of producing 10k Megapack units/year"

Seems promising, but does Tesla currently have the cell supply to reach the factory capacity of 10k Megapacks?

Not an answer to your question, but interesting data collection I just found while surfing the tesla-twittersphere:

Tesla Megapack Tracker

Map of Tesla and other big battery installations. And more info around battery storage...

lorenz-g.github.io

Has among other goodies yearly estimates of percentage of storage cell capacity of total Tesla (automotive+storage).