Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FSDtester#1]

TSLA hit a two-year low this morning, during the session with the heaviest trading volume within that period. Then it proceeded to close up by 3.3% amid no significant Tesla news, while the popular averages closed well down. TSLA continued to rise nicely in after-hours trading. It appears that capitulation was completed this morning. Today’s trading may have started to trumpet all-clear for TSLA. We should know better in the coming days.

How does today’s SP and volume translate into your forward expectations?

 

[thx1139]

Wrong. It is the MSRP, it has nothing to do with the sales price: Topic B — Frequently Asked Questions About Income and Price Limitations for the New Clean Vehicle Credit | Internal Revenue Service

Hmmm. Wonder a couple things.

Could Tesla offer to buyers a short term lock of current EAP/FSD price for a certain period of time so people purchase under threshold and then upgrade.
Could Tesla offer to buy back the 3rd row seats? So you pay $3000 extra now and then ask the delivery center to buy them back.

 

[Optimeer]

Alrighty

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608543122170036225

So, I would summarize it like that:

Model/Seats	Base Price End 2022 USD	IRA - Applicable MSRP Limit USD	My guess for Battery for 2023 Model Year
3 RWD / 5	46‘990	55‘000	LFP from CATL at least until March 2023
3 LR / 5	- (possibly 55‘990 before discontinuiation, I am not sure)	55‘000	2170 from GIGA Nevada
3 P / 5	62‘990	Not eligible	2170 from GIGA Nevada or overseas or model will be discontinued
Y AWD / 5	-	55‘000 - will be possibly exceeded	2170 from GIGA Nevada until 4680 production is ramped. Not sure if this configuration will be introduced
Y LR / 5	65‘990	55‘000 - will be possibly exceeded	2170 from GIGA Nevada or possibly also from overseas if MSRP Limit is exceeded. Configuration could also be discontiunued
Y P / 5	69‘990	55‘000 - will be possibly exceeded	2170 from GIGA Nevada or possibly also from overseas if MSRP Limit is exceeded. Configuration could also be discontiunued
Y AWD / 7	-	80‘000	4680 from Kato Road or Austin or 2170 from GIGA Nevada
Y LR / 7	68‘990	80‘000	2170 from GIGA Nevada
Y P / 7	-	80‘000	2170 from GIGA Nevada

I don‘t expect significant price cuts for exisiting models. Only the prices for the reintroduced 3 LR and for the new Y AWD 5 seater (if introduced) will be lower than without the IRA.

 

[mongo]

Hmmm. Wonder a couple things.

Could Tesla offer to buyers a short term lock of current EAP/FSD price for a certain period of time so people purchase under threshold and then upgrade.
Could Tesla offer to buy back the 3rd row seats? So you pay $3000 extra now and then ask the delivery center to buy them back.

Easier, build the car without the second row. Buy and have them installed after purchase.

Edit: buy FSD at delivery center, not from factory?

 

[MP3Mike]

Could Tesla offer to buyers a short term lock of current EAP/FSD price for a certain period of time so people purchase under threshold and then upgrade.

I wonder if FSD/EAP count? The FAQ says "plus the retail price suggested by the manufacturer for each accessory or item of optional equipment physically attached to the vehicle at the time of delivery to the dealer." EAP/FSD isn't an accessary/equipment and isn't physically attached....

But it is probably safer to just buy them after the fact.

 

[AndrewZ]

Well, they'd just have to keep changing the MSRP, rather than discount. It would affect sales of demos though.

It's a good thing for buyers in a number of states, including Maine, because we have a property tax on vehicles that is based on MSRP.

I'm more wondering about other implications for loans and the used market since the discount/incentive feels more temporary in nature versus a MSRP cut

 

[thesmokingman]

Santa was late this year??

 

[MP3Mike]

Easier, build the car without the second row. Buy and have them installed after purchase.

That would have crash test and air bag considerations.

 

[mongo]

I wonder if FSD/EAP count. The FAQ says "plus the retail price suggested by the manufacturer for each accessory or item of optional equipment physically attached to the vehicle at the time of delivery to the dealer." EAP/FSD isn't an accessary, or equipment, and aren't physically attached.

But it is probably safer to just buy them after the fact.

Well, the flash memory is attached, but it seems like if it was not enabled when it left the factory (original Monroney sticker), it would not be in the price.

 

[MP3Mike]

Couldn't they offer 1 model Y 5 seater that is range limited to 100 miles for $54999 or does the IRA mention it's not the MSRP put out by the manufacturer, but the actual price of each individual transaction?

It is the MSRP of each specific vehicle... No gaming of the system like was done in Canada.

 

[FSDtester#1]

It is the MSRP of each specific vehicle... No gaming of the system like was done in Canada.

Thanks, just read your explanation in prior posts. Deleted the prior post.

 

[MC3OZ]

Been seeing enough smoke on the 4680 analysis from Cleaner Watt and TLF to be calling it now, 4680 ramp is going to be the excuse for not hitting 50% growth next year. And shorts are going to FUD aggressively on this as signs of deteriorating demand.

Going to eat downvotes for this right now, and downvotes in 6 months ago when this is starting to materialize and everyone says "yes but Elon in 2021 telegraphed that 4680 was needed in 2023 to hit that goal." Which I am acknowledging. I'm just saying, looks like that danger zone is going to hit next year. I also suspect it's the reason for the delay in Master Plan part 3, because there's still some major hurdles left to publish that document.

I miss the days when 20 gwh output for 2022 was the stated goal, and we were debating whether that meant peak run-rate capacity or actual produced output for the year. Sigh.

For the record, this is actual valid Tesla criticism, not the BS we're reading about now in the media. I wish public debates around Tesla's stock price revolved around actually substantive content.

I don't think that what is happening now is a good prediction of what may be happening in 6 months time.

I am forming my opinion of the 4680 ramp in June 2023, and not before that date.

All ramps of new manufacturing processes and technologies can hit issues, especially battery cell production.

Raw materials and the cathode plant are probably needed for the steep part of the nickel cathode ramp and Cybertruck.

Tesla is sourcing raw materials for iron cathodes and so far has not explained why that is happening. I don't know if any iron cathode production will happen in 2023, I suspect that will be more like 2024.

 

[AudubonB]

Irrespective of MSRP shenanigans or lack thereof, and of FomoCo's very strong wordings to dealers who abuse the "S" in MSRP, I am in absolute belief that Ford's dealers will easily find ways to snag virtually all the benefits of the IRA's largesse. With Tesla, WYSIWYP rules. With all others - most particularly US manufacturers, MSRP is hardly even a guideline.

***Old-timers will be reeling from reading not just an acronym, but a new one, from Your Favorite Mod. Take a couple of stiff ones and consider it a New Year's gift***

 

[OrthoSurg]

December 29th 2022 will be commemorated as « The Day We All Needed »

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This is the first back to back green days since 11/22-11/23

The last streak of more than 2 days was a 4 day stretch from 10/25-10/28

 

[hobbes]

According to this data, Tesla is really close to hitting +50% deliveries yoy at least in the US, I think it would definitely help with the looks if they manage to achieve that goal in their largest market:

Tesla expected to near 50% sales growth target in the United States

Tesla is expected to near its 50% growth target in the United States, and there is reason to believe similar success is possible abroad.

www.teslarati.com

 

[hobbes]

@Troy published new data with market share of Tesla with regard to total passenger vehicle sales (not only EVs) - In the US Tesla had almost 4% in Q3, 2,5% worldwide! Wasn´t aware it was that much already. I still remember like it was yesterday when total EVs in Europe were sub 1%.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608516651879747586

 

[generalenthu]

@Troy published new data with market share of Tesla with regard to total passenger vehicle sales (not only EVs) - In the US Tesla had almost 4% in Q3, 2,5% worldwide! Wasn´t aware it was that much already. I still remember like it was yesterday when total EVs in Europe were sub 1%.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608516651879747586

I wont be satisfied until we get to 50% world wide. And then i wont stop beating the drum on demand issues (for the optimus bot).

 

[mongo]

Irrespective of MSRP shenanigans or lack thereof, and of FomoCo's very strong wordings to dealers who abuse the "S" in MSRP, I am in absolute belief that Ford's dealers will easily find ways to snag virtually all the benefits of the IRA's largesse. With Tesla, WYSIWYP rules. With all others - most particularly US manufacturers, MSRP is hardly even a guideline.

***Old-timers will be reeling from reading not just an acronym, but a new one, from Your Favorite Mod. Take a couple of stiff ones and consider it a New Year's gift***

Not sure if I'm an old timer, but I'm glad to see that is a pronouncable acronym versus a mere initialism.

 

[Mardak]

"Enabled anyone in North America who has purchased FSD to request FSD Beta, reaching 285k cars total."

Seems to be first time they produced a number on FSD Purchases

There could still be a difference between those who received FSD Beta and those with FSD Capability purchased/subscribed as the user experience of pushing the request button and agreeing to the terms from the Autopilot settings screen loses some percentage of users each step of the funnel. Although it seems like FSD Beta 10.69.25.1 has a tip/message that proactively shows up to increase discoverability of turning on FSD Beta potentially in preparation for getting even closer to the FSD purchases number.

Do people know if there have been any other FSD Beta population milestones reported by Tesla?

• October 2021 NHTSA recall: 12k
• January 2022 quarterly report: 60k
• April 2022 Elon TED interview: 100k
• September 2022 Elon tweet: 160k
• December 2022 Tesla tweet: 285k