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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'd wager over half of America is still clueless about EV's in general, Tesla included.

Pretty much all of my right leaning friends totally believe the following:

- The US government is trying to force us all into EV's.
- Tesla has only survived this long due to government hand outs.
- Tesla cars are junk.
- If EV's sell a lot they will crash our power grid and doom us all.
- EV's are less green than ICE due to coal and oil powering the grid.
- EV's are a left wing fad and we'll all be back to ICE soon enough.

I will say this though, a few of my right leaning friends who have dared to look at my Model Y and go for rides in it have started to question the FUD feed they regularly hear about EV's and Tesla. So there is some hope yet for the clueless.

Every time I do a road trip in my Tesla I get questions from strangers about my car, and I'm always shocked how many of them know nothing at all about EV's. Some of the questions I get are hilarious.

A few months ago I was at the local grocery store and I was putting bags in the frunk when a stranger two cars over asked me if I needed help. I told him I was fine as I put another bag in the frunk. He looked puzzled and asked my why I was putting groceries under the hood? I told him that's where I always put my groceries, then I closed the frunk, got in the MY and drove away. A few minutes later I realized that the stranger probably thought I was having engine trouble, that's why he asked me if I "needed help"!!!! :p

There are still a lot of clueless people about...
This is so true. I had lunch with some relatives recently. I am clearly the only person they know who has an EV. They were convinced that there was no resale value in an old EV (despite me telling them I literally just sold my 7 year old S), that the batteries likely only last 2 years (See previous comment :D) and that the batteries are dangerous and explosive.

One of the issues I think is related to cost. The people I spoke to have never bought a car new, let alone a relatively expensive EV. Right now we have a lot of wealthy people cruising around in amazing EVs. I think minds will change quite rapidly once there is a cheaper tesla (bare-bones model 3, or a new model 2). People tend not to believe anything has changed until they see it. Once EVERYOEN knows someone with an EV, the FUD will likely collapse.

I take heart in the belief that right now the FUD is only working on people who are *not in the market for an EV anyway*.

With any luck, 2023 is the year of the big Texas/Berlin ramp, and the huge uptick in peoples exposure to the reality of what tesla make. We are very early in this process now.
 
Yes, that's the time when the previous day's TSLA Open Interest (OI) is published. Look how the SP reacted by 07:10 a.m.

NOTE: OI is updated just once per day at 07:00 ET

View attachment 894482

Options represent ~20x the trading volume of TSLA shares (and half of all the Options traded in the entire Market).

People don't pay enough attention to Options, especially to intraday Options Volume (which is updated about once per hour at the link above during the main session).

The tail does indeed wag the dog, at least when it comes to TSLA Options.

Cheers!

If that’s the reason for the premarket spike, it’s basically speculators speculating on speculators. The volume is tiny compared with intraday trading. Let’s see if FOMO is sparked…
 
and now we’ve got people rumoring final details of an Indonesian plant?
No! Halt the expansion and do a buyback…
i sure would not invest in a new fund from such whiners

it all comes back to what they said on battery day.

and the comment about 4T mkt cap
bigger than Apple Aramco
No offense...and perhaps English is not your native language....but your posts are very hard to read....or understand.
 
and now we’ve got people rumoring final details of an Indonesian plant?
No! Halt the expansion and do a buyback…
i sure would not invest in a new fund from such whiners

it all comes back to what they said on battery day.

and the comment about 4T mkt cap
bigger than Apple Aramco

Tesla is spending as fast(but wise) as it can ...
most buyback proponents said give precedence to new GF etc, and to only do buyback with the extra cash
Elon's vote is for buyback
Q4 is supposed to add another 5B to cash balance ...

cheers!!
 
They were convinced that there was no resale value in an old EV (despite me telling them I literally just sold my 7 year old S), that the batteries likely only last 2 years (See previous comment :D) and that the batteries are dangerous and explosive.
They’re 99.999999% right if talking about a Bolt.
 
When drag from Berlin and Austin goes away, it will be replaced by other ramping production lines. So long as we have 50% growth and 1 year long ramps that dictates that at any point in time (on average) 50% of the production lines will be in an inefficient state of ramping.
This has been stated by other poster(s) but I will restate their position with my words for hopefully added clarity.
As a company grows in size, new factories have less and less impact on margins.

When Shanghai was ramping - we had 1 efficient site (Fremont) and 1 inefficient site (Shanghai)
With Berlin/Austin ramping, we now have 2 efficient sites and 2 inefficient sites.
By Dec of this year, we will have 4 efficient sites, unless Tesla ramps 4 new site at once, the drag of 1 or 2 new sites will be less as we now have 4 efficient sites producing 2M cars.

Keep in mind that much of the 50% growth year on year is expansion at existing efficient sites where there is virtually no drag on margins.
Look at Shanghai, it produced about 480m cars in 2021 and 725m in 2022 -There was no drag on margins from Shanghai in 2021 and 2022 from what I can see.
 

Please don’t sell but buy Tesla shares now when it is cheap. What are you waiting for? Received 61,000 more shares today 2 million more shares will be assigned @ $160 this month
What does Leo mean:

"shares will be assigned @ $160 this month"??

TSLA isn't $160... I've been here a long time, yet I still never quite understand what's going on.
_________________
EDIT- Thank you @juanmedina , @MikeC and @Mengy , for answering:
"Puts that he sold are getting assigned." and "...obligating him to buy at $160 at a future date regardless of where the stock is trading.".

So he's complaining about his poor speculations, not as a credible long term investor? Heck, my LEAPS withered away terribly, but I don't complain because I knew what I was getting into (risk) -and I knew my level of speculative understanding was rudimentary, but I couldn't resist the lure of options, so I did it anyway.
 
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What does Leo mean:

"shares will be assigned @ $160 this month"??

TSLA isn't $160... I've been here a long time, yet I still never quite understand what's going on.

He sold puts with $160 strike price, obligating him to buy at $160 at a future date regardless of where the stock is trading.
 
What does Leo mean:

"shares will be assigned @ $160 this month"??

TSLA isn't $160... I've been here a long time, yet I still never quite understand what's going on.

It's options stuff. I'm too simple of an investor to understand what he's doing, I simply buy shares and hold onto them for years or even decades. It's worked well for me so far....
 

hepefully got the time stamp link correct
give it 5 minutes of your time starting about 37 minutes in
Goal One: TWh scale battery production (100X growth for electric vehicles).
  • Need 10TWhs to transition the global fleet to electric.
  • 150TWhs need to transition all vehicles of all types to electric (average vehicle lasts 15 years)
Goal Two: More affordable cells.
  • Cut the cost/cell in half. Necessary prerequisite to get to a more affordable car.
Goal Three: Profit (ok, I made that up, but that is what is happening)

Seriously - Main takeaway is that when Tesla has line of sight to a TWh run rate, we'll see the "more affordable car" and next Giga Factories announcement (maybe investor day on March 1st)
 
Goal One: TWh scale battery production (100X growth for electric vehicles).
  • Need 10TWhs to transition the global fleet to electric.
  • 150TWhs need to transition all vehicles of all types to electric (average vehicle lasts 15 years)
Goal Two: More affordable cells.
  • Cut the cost/cell in half. Necessary prerequisite to get to a more affordable car.
Goal Three: Profit (ok, I made that up, but that is what is happening)

Seriously - Main takeaway is that when Tesla has line of sight to a TWh run rate, we'll see the "more affordable car" and next Giga Factories announcement (maybe investor day on March 1st)
no, main takeaway is everyone is being too short sighted
 
In case anybody's casually wondering why the SP is being capped at $123.17, the Closing SP on Dec 30, 2022 was $123.18 (yes, hedgies are THAT A.R.)

So any move above that SP puts TSLA into positive territoy for the year... Then David Faber et.al can't croon about it being 'down for the year'. :p

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2023-01-11.10-05.png


Let's GO! :D

EDIT: BUSTED!

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2023-01-11.10-25.png
 
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What does Leo mean:

"shares will be assigned @ $160 this month"??

TSLA isn't $160... I've been here a long time, yet I still never quite understand what's going on.
_________________
EDIT- Thank you @juanmedina , @MikeC and @Mengy , for answering:
"Puts that he sold are getting assigned." and "...obligating him to buy at $160 at a future date regardless of where the stock is trading.".

So he's complaining about his poor speculations, not as a credible long term investor? Heck, my LEAPS withered away terribly, but I don't complain because I knew what I was getting into (risk) -and I knew my level of speculative understanding was rudimentary, but I couldn't resist the lure of options, so I did it anyway.

I don't see it as complaining, I think he is saying that, even with getting assigned a bunch at $160, he is still buying more at the current price. Total additional accumulation of 2.6 Million shares.