Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Thank you! So at the current lithium carbonate price of $80/kg, the processed lithium in a Tesla probably costs $1k-2k? If so, even a 50% drop in lithium prices would make a Tesla only 1k less to build.

Maybe less than that. @mongo, can you add anything to this inquiry?

Here is another useful link

How Much Lithium is in a Li-Ion Vehicle Battery? - LinkedIn​

https://www.linkedin.com › pulse › how-much-lithium-li-i...


850 grams Li-carbonate per kWh battery storage
The Model Y LR is ~ 82 kWh

Current spot price for Li-Carbonate is 437 Yuan per Kg,
So Li component in Model Y LR is 437*87 Yuan = $5309 USD

In spot prices. I have no idea how much Tesla pays

At 100% utilization, a 75kWh pack needs 5kg of Lithium.
Concentrated spodumene is 7% Li2O. (I screwed up the module [molecule] in a June post)
Li2O is 46.5% Li by mass.
5 kg/0.465/0.07 = 154kg of high proof spodumene.
$7,181 per tonne
154*7.181= $1,106

Lithium carbonate is Li2CO3, 18.8% lithium by mass
5 kg/.188 = 26.6kg * 437 = 11,630 yuan = $1,700 USD

But a little more than that due to cell inefficiencies.

 

[wipster]

At 100% utilization, a 75kWh pack needs 5kg of Lithium.
Concentrated spodumene is 7% Li2O. (I screwed up the module in a June post)
Li2O is 46.5% Li by mass.
5 kg/0.465/0.07 = 154kg of high proof spodumene.
$7,181 per tonne
154*7.181= $1,106

Lithium carbonate is Li2CO3, 18.8% lithium by mass
5 kg/.188 = 26.6kg * 437 = 11,630 yuan = $1,700 USD

But a little more than that due to cell inefficiencies.

Thanks mate, I figured you knew the answer.

 

[philw1776]

I'm just concerned that I won't have enough lithium for my daily medical needs.

 

[wipster]

That is way too simplistic. Day trading speculator bought on the tweet, and lost money when the deal collapsed and they sold. <<<shrug>>>

I personally also bought on the tweet. The only difference between me and the aggrieved speculators was that I held on to the stock.

Ditto. Bought on the tweet as well, but HODLed (for the most part).

 

[ZeApelido]

V11 coming… at some point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622000995323748352

 

[traxila]

This is not good.

I assume you mean from the perspective of the SP. I agree. I would imagine the FED is planning relentless hikes until unemployment starts going up. Granted this could happen fast. But right now it is not happening.

From the perspective of Main Street; Party on, baby!

 

[TesslaBull]

Business expense?

Meh....I still think a lease only makes sense for those bad at math, even for a business. Rent is a 100% expense. Owning the same car is also a business expense but one can claim depreciation, and have a useable asset once paid for. Buying a car, AFAIK, is always a better value than renting. It's why companies love pushing leases. It's the most expensive way to drive a car, and hence the most profitable way car companies can trick get people to drive them.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

V11 coming… at some point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622000995323748352

There goes Elon again...responding to his own tweets

 

[rolfrenz]

Meh....I still think a lease only makes sense for those bad at math, even for a business. Rent is a 100% expense. Owning the same car is also a business expense but one can claim depreciation, and have a useable asset once paid for. Buying a car, AFAIK, is always a better value than renting. It's why companies love pushing leases. It's the most expensive way to drive a car, and hence the most profitable way car companies can trick get people to drive them.

It depends. If I had invested my money 2019 in a M3 instead of leasing it and use the money to invest in TSLA it would have cost me many other M3. Now I drive the car and own money for another 4-5 of them. So I can quite live with my math.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I haven't seen this posted & the Tesla angle is how much anger will be directed towards Tesla/Elon/EVs/China in those countries dependent on ICE car production. With anger, associated anti-EV policies might flow. There's a line in the article saying something like Japan is a one company country (Toyota) and Toyota flexes its advertising spend and I'm sure its political clout to mould the narrative and policies. My guess is that Toyota will be a bad influence in Japan for a long time, unless new CEO really can and will make changes to Toyota & its influence on Japan as a whole.

I sometimes watch the Japanese EV racing & Tesla Model 3 seems to dominate, Taycans seem to overheat on longer races. I wonder how much attention this gets in Japan.

Whatever happens, its just one country and one company (Toyota) - so can't affect things too much but it's a pity that it might slow things down. Tesla has faced worse & won.

Is Toyota Circling The Drain? Will It Take Japan With It? - CleanTechnica

Toyota appears to be circling the drain and the worry is that Toyota's reluctance to go EV will damage the Japanese economy.

cleantechnica.com

 

[MikeC]

I assume you mean from the perspective of the SP. I agree. I would imagine the FED is planning relentless hikes until unemployment starts going up. Granted this could happen fast. But right now it is not happening.

From the perspective of Main Street; Party on, baby!

The Fed has two mandates: maximum employment and price stability.

So they don’t specifically want people to lose jobs, but low unemployment does free them up to raise rates as needed for price stability. Conversely, if unemployment was high, it would complicate their ability to raise rates to cool inflation because it would raise unemployment further.

But if inflation continues to cool, they’re not going to raise rates just to increase unemployment as that is directly against one of their mandates.

 

[Sofie]

Someone at work asked me today what I think TSLA would be worth by 2030. I said that I have seen most updated targets at $1,000.
Is this the general consensus? What do you all think?

 

[SageBrush]

At 100% utilization, a 75kWh pack needs 5kg of Lithium.

By the link you reposted, there is 160 grams of elemental Li per kWh in a pack.
75 Kwh * 0.16 Kg Li per kWh = 12 Kg

 

[SageBrush]

My guess is that Toyota will be a bad influence in Japan for a long time, unless new CEO really can and will make changes to Toyota & its influence on Japan as a whole.

Japan is an important, but in the end end, small part of Toyota's business. Toyota cannot ignore the rest of the world.

 

[traxila]

The Fed has two mandates: maximum employment and price stability.

So they don’t specifically want people to lose jobs, but low unemployment does free them up to raise rates as needed for price stability. Conversely, if unemployment was high, it would complicate their ability to raise rates to cool inflation because it would raise unemployment further.

But if inflation continues to cool, they’re not going to raise rates just to increase unemployment as that is directly against one of their mandates.

I disagree.

They will argue that with unemployment at basically unprecedented lows, and inflationary, that their mandate is clear: raise interest rates until the labor market softens.

The main point of your post: low unemployment does free them up to raise rates.

The pause that the market has already priced in may be off the table.

The pivot that the market is pricing in the past six weeks taking place six to eight months from now is the stuff of dreams short of an economic collapse.

Talk me out of this because I hate the whole idea.

 

[Cosmacelf]

On the CT finish, Franz, the head designer, was on a recent podcast and he said that it was some kind of intentional brushed like finish. I’ll have to dig up the podcast since my memory is imperfect, but it surely wasnt a mirror finish.

 

[Ogre]

They are probably working on things in parallel:-

• New improved cells and testing the cells.
• Line speed and yields.
• Ramping additional lines and training staff
• Cathode plant
• Raw materials.

They have said CT in low volumes in 2023, and 2024 should be volume 4680 production.

The 2023 CTs will probably be higher trim models, or they will pick the best options.
Having enough motors for 3 or 4 motor versions seems possible.

I think it’s possible the slip in some dual motors, particularly if they are battery constrained.

Otherwise yeah.

 

[WattsHappening]

Someone at work asked me today what I think TSLA would be worth by 2030. I said that I have seen most updated targets at $1,000.
Is this the general consensus? What do you all think?

I don't know what general consensus is, but I for one will be very disappointed if TSLA is only at $1,000 in 2030.

 

[jerry33]

Someone at work asked me today what I think TSLA would be worth by 2030. I said that I have seen most updated targets at $1,000.
Is this the general consensus? What do you all think?

$1000 in 2030 is way too low. Every estimate underestimates Tesla's manufacturing advantage and doesn't consider Tesla's other business lines at all.

 

[wipster]

Someone at work asked me today what I think TSLA would be worth by 2030. I said that I have seen most updated targets at $1,000.
Is this the general consensus? What do you all think?

If the SP splits several times perhaps. If they reach their goals I think it will be much higher than $1,000, maybe $5,000. But the market and the world are fickle things... who knows what may happen to Tesla if the US and China go to war... they may be in a very precarious position.