Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Why would Elon go anywhere NEAR the topic of how many cars Tesla will make this year?

Very much so. There are 2.5B cars & trucks on Earth. Even replacing 1% of that fleet would require making 25M vehicles per year. Tesla will make over 500k cars in next 12 months, but that’s a mere 2% of 25M or 0.02% of global vehicle fleet. Car industry slow -> demand >> supply.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019

 

[EVNow]

TSLA has now gone up >$5 today...
Low of 258.63, currently 264.20, $5.57

Oh well - I'm still not trading. Today will be 30 days from the fateful Mar 15th call expiring. So, I guess I can start trading again today.

I wanted to make sure atleast I can declare my Mar 15 call losses - so didn't trade 30 days before & 30 days after.

 

[lklundin]

If they're trying to decide driving policy with a bunch of Silicon Valley types who haven't even been able to look up the different registration rules for different jurisdictions (yes, this is still a problem), they're not really serious about it.

Granted, the argument about hiring expert driving instructors is convincing.

However, when I see how an AI can be explained what it takes to win five-player dota, then I feel that something that a human can be taught in a dozen lessons can't be too far away.

 

[EVNow]

Why would Elon go anywhere NEAR the topic of how many cars Tesla will make this year?

Very much so. There are 2.5B cars & trucks on Earth. Even replacing 1% of that fleet would require making 25M vehicles per year. Tesla will make over 500k cars in next 12 months, but that’s a mere 2% of 25M or 0.02% of global vehicle fleet. Car industry slow -> demand >> supply.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019

Because he had to explain why the price car value would go up.

Also, he must be having a pretty good idea how the talks with SEC are progressing.

 

[mongo]

Oh well - I'm still not trading. Today will be 30 days from the fateful Mar 15th call expiring. So, I guess I can start trading again today.

I wanted to make sure atleast I can declare my Mar 15 call losses - so didn't trade 30 days before & 30 days after.

As long as you weren't also trading with an IRA or such, you could track the loss as a basis change and claim that loss in the future, or hopefully offset your gains.

 

[KSilver2000]

Not to be pedantic, but he didn't say 500k deliveries. He said "Tesla will make over 500k cars in next 12 months"

Either way, the 500k is another super optimistic tweet that was unnecessary. Forget deliveries, at this point, it will be a miracle even getting to production of that amount. This is the kind of tweets, as with the very vague tweet regarding $5-7K battery modules cost, that shorts use to eat this thing up.

 

[AlMc]

Why would Elon go anywhere NEAR the topic of how many cars Tesla will make this year?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019

I have no @$@##@ idea and can't $%$#^@ believe he did. (Edited by my wife)

 

[JRP3]

Everyone knows Podunk is in Iowa!

I grew up a few miles from Podunk, NY, and did a lot of cross country skiing there.

 

[JRP3]

I have no @$@##@ idea and can't $%$#^@ believe he did. (Edited by my wife)

Because he's Elon The judge pretty much spanked the SEC and Elon knows it.

 

[Causalien]

Did you forget about the China Gigafactory hopefully coming online and pumping out cars later in the year? I mean, that's a whole new Gigafactory coming online.

I am assuming that the current line has reached its max output from the stalemate in q1. This is bear thesis.

So china giga is the new line expansion that is needed for the 50% improvement. 3000/6000 =50%

 

[Causalien]

Seems really high to me too. I think all of your numbers actually look optimistic except for next Q1, and they still aren't close. The wildcard is Shanghai, and your numbers assume Shanghai is already producing 3k/wk in Q3. How likely is that???

Not til maybe oct

 

[Causalien]

Took the words out of my mouth, and your correction was hardly pedantic -- it's an important distinction.

I didn't make any distinction. Delivery for me is solved. Except for new countries that just opened up. So I am assuming delivery = production from now on.

 

[Zaxxon]

Your wish is my command.

Tesla Gigafactory 3 Shanghai Update Via Local Onlookers And Drone

That's from Thursday. Ancient history.

On a positive note, I had Mobile Service out this morning to swap out my winter wheel/tire set and put the all-season set back on. They arrived on-time (to the minute), finished the job in < 30 minutes, and were polite and professional. I did not interact with a human to set this up until they were literally on my doorstep. Requested the appointment via the Tesla app, received a text and email that mobile service was available, self-scheduled this appointment with mobile via their provided link.

 

[RobStark]

All nonsense atm. This kind of half-full thinking is what kills small investors right now.
And many people may prefer riding in a Tesla, but not at a premium. People riding Uber/Lyft just want to get to their next destination as cheap as possible.

 

[lascavarian]

No, previous decree still in place, they are currently hashing out what that agreement was...

Seems to me if they are not sure what the agreement was, then EMs interpretation cannot be in contempt during this period of clarification therefore his interpretation remains equally valid until the judge endorses a new more clear agreement after the 18th.

Maybe that is why we are hearing a bit more from him lately. It could be said that he is a celebrity/influencer as much as a CEO since he comments as much on non-tesla topics as he does.

 

[mongo]

Seems to me if they are not sure what the agreement was, then EMs interpretation cannot be in contempt during this period of clarification therefore his interpretation remains equally valid until the judge endorses a new more clear agreement after the 18th.

Maybe that is why we are hearing a bit more from him lately. It could be said that he is a celebrity/influencer as much as a CEO since he comments as much on non-tesla topics as he does.

Yah, if he had been in contempt, the judge would have said so...
Doubt that (the court case) is why he is Tweeting more though...

 

[Nocturnal]

Because he's Elon The judge pretty much spanked the SEC and Elon knows it.

That's fun for him but I'm trying to make sure I can retire someday.

 

[EVNow]

As long as you weren't also trading with an IRA or such, you could track the loss as a basis change and claim that loss in the future, or hopefully offset your gains.

I was careful not to touch anything TSLA in any account for 61 days.

 

[Nocturnal]

Model 3 doesn't quite fit the Uber Black idea IMO. I think of town cars and I think most do the same.

 

[JRP3]

That's fun for him but I'm trying to make sure I can retire someday.

Then buy when Elon provides discounts