Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

Rivian reported earnings. Revenue is flat, however huge improvements on COGS which dropped their negative gross income by almost half a billion QOQ. Step in the right direction, but still half a billion dollars away from breaking even prior to operating expenses.

Elon told 'em in public... "don't build the 2nd factory until you have optimised the 1st factory." But did Rivian listen? Oh, no...

 

[nativewolf]

Rivian reported earnings. Revenue is flat, however huge improvements on COGS which dropped their negative gross income by almost half a billion QOQ. Step in the right direction, but still half a billion dollars away from breaking even prior to operating expenses.

I find that enormously positive. Now if they can increase revenues while continuing to cut the cogs they'd be on track to at least survive. These other two here will disappear and they may have been competitors for Rivian sales.

The Rivian SUV is a very professional looking vehicle. I mean...very nice. Looks like a true luxury SUV. I'd love to gut out the Porsche, BMW, and Merc SUV buyers somehow.

 

[nativewolf]

Elon told 'em in public... "don't build the 2nd factory until you have optimised the 1st factory." But did Rivian listen? Oh, no...

Rivians CEO really seems lost. Oh well

 

[Max Plaid]

Rivian up 5.5% on losing less money than expected!

 

[wws]

To Rivians credit, I've been seeing a decent number of them on the roads here in Silicon Valley. Both R1T and R1S. But they, and Ford and GM, only have a few more months before the Cybertruck hits the road. Then the fun begins. If I were Rivian, I'd get those Amazon delivery vans in volume production ASAP.

Lucids are a much rarer sight.

 

[Singuy]

I find that enormously positive. Now if they can increase revenues while continuing to cut the cogs they'd be on track to at least survive. These other two here will disappear and they may have been competitors for Rivian sales.

The Rivian SUV is a very professional looking vehicle. I mean...very nice. Looks like a true luxury SUV. I'd love to gut out the Porsche, BMW, and Merc SUV buyers somehow.

We shall see. Looks like they are offsetting the 1.8B cash burn with 1.5B worth of convertible debt in a high interest environment. Yes they are buying good time, but that cash burn is not sustainable as interest starts chewing up their already distressed balance sheet.

 

[hobbes]

When was the last time Options didn't control TSLA? 2021?

Last Friday ... Max pain was 162.50 as per Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts and we closed at 170.06...

Max pain is glued to 162.50 again. Strike 160 is a tall put wall, 165 is a mid-height call wall, and 170 is Mt. Everest high call wall.

At least there is some variance around max pain depending on where put/call walls are.

 

[bkp_duke]

Right, Pepsi was the equivalent to employee/influencer...then Elon dropped that mass production term for Semis.

That's how many see the CT ramp going, but I hope not. We all know the Semi has less orders and takes a lot more batteries.

I have a feeling we won't know much until September.

You should think of the Semi in different terms. One Semi delivery is the equivalent of taking 20-50 traditional autos off the road. Tesla has made it clear that's how "dirty" traditional semitrucks are.

No one expected thousands of these things to come out in the first year. That wasn't promised.

 

[bkp_duke]

Rivian reported earnings. Revenue is flat, however huge improvements on COGS which dropped their negative gross income by almost half a billion QOQ. Step in the right direction, but still half a billion dollars away from breaking even prior to operating expenses.

Wonder how much of that was Munro and Assoc's help. In one of their YT vids they said Rivian had hired them to find and remove production inefficiencies.

 

[CorneliusXX]

We shall see. Looks like they are offsetting the 1.8B cash burn with 1.5B worth of convertible debt in a high interest environment. Yes they are buying good time, but that cash burn is not sustainable as interest starts chewing up their already distressed balance sheet.

There's a few other funny things in their cashflow statement.

• Inventory writedowns appear to be an add back from the net loss - is that exacerbating COGS? Or some of their vehicles are sold below production cost.
• Inventory used $780m of cash - expected to increase in a growing company but that sounds excessive - more than the $661m of total revenues. Planning rapid production growth? Perhaps Rivian are unwinding their wave.
• CapEx dropped substantially - Unusual given their big plans for a new factory

 

[Singuy]

Wonder how much of that was Munro and Assoc's help. In one of their YT vids they said Rivian had hired them to find and remove production inefficiencies.

Need someone to dig into the 10Q. I feel like a lot of this is probably accounting related vs COGs being cut in half in one quarter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

a quick trip to 150 to close the gap?

Yeah, the gap to Jan 25, 2023 isn't $150 (try $146.41)

jus' sayin'... that's how wedgies think (care even less).

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[jerry33]

Elon told 'em in public... "don't build the 2nd factory until you have optimised the 1st factory." But did Rivian listen? Oh, no...

That sounds eerily familiar.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Someone sent me this while driving off the I-5 in Santa Fe Springs, I thought he was trolling for a second but it's actually true ["Now Selling NIKOLA" sign]
View attachment 936263

CUSTOMER*: What is the maximum range of your electric semi truck?

SALESMAN: How high is your mountain?

*implied 'cat joke'.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I do not hate Lucid, i just think they were way over their heads in believing all the 'fluff' that the smooth talking person with the English accent was selling them and their 'investors'

I rest my case:

Circa 2021: $5.5B projected revenue in 2023....Reality: $149.4M in Q1

 

[EVMeister]

5000 Model Ys per week from Giga Texas officially confirmed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656069773245947907

 

[EVWatcher]

Others having similar issue with this.

Tesla investor relations is awful. I’ve signed up get emails at EoQ of shareholder documents, signed up for the lottery to attend events etc and I’ve NEVER gotten any correspondence in any form from tesla. I wrote to tesla investor relations directly by email and never heard anything back either.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla investor relations is awful. I’ve signed up get emails at EoQ of shareholder documents, signed up for the lottery to attend events etc and I’ve NEVER gotten any correspondence in any form from tesla. I wrote to tesla investor relations directly by email and never heard anything back either.

I don't think they are staffed to run big events. Lots of people want to go to Tesla shareholder meetings who would have never gone to an annual shareholders meeting in their lives. It's like a circus. They should just hire a third party to manage their shareholder meetings or make them so boring nobody wants to go.

 

[nativewolf]

Right, Pepsi was the equivalent to employee/influencer...then Elon dropped that mass production term for Semis.

That's how many see the CT ramp going, but I hope not. We all know the Semi has less orders and takes a lot more batteries.

I have a feeling we won't know much until September.

The potential impact of the Tesla Semi is hard to describe to those without a background understanding of the trucking industry. It's huge, just huge. First off, the truck industry is small, a few million units are on the road. Of those 90% are local routes meaning they are home for dinner or breakfast. Tesla Semi competes in that space, local rigs. The range is more than adequate for those jobs. The performance, if delivered as described, is superior for many users. Fuel costs are a huge driver for truckers- they can spend $300-500 a day for diesel.

So we have a small industry with an outsize impact from each single unit produced. Fuel costs goes from almost a dollar a mile to $0.10 per mile. The trucks are not more expensive than ICE trucks. The synergy with Megapack installations and other energy products is huge. Unit sales in the industry are usually less than 200k per year, sometimes much less. So the 50k/year run rate will take out 50/200 (10% being long haul) of the total US fleet. That would be far more of the market than we have in the managed to replace in over a decade of EV production focused on retail cars. Each year having an impact similar to removing over 2mln automobiles.

The Semi is the killer save the earth, create unit synergy with Tesla Energy, huge scale potential business product. I think the CT will be successful but frankly I fear it will be a 3rd or 4th car for many and will in fact due little to reduce global warming. To save the earth and make money- the Tesla Semi.

There are risks and issues= reliability is huge and Tesla has to do far more trouble shooting with a class 8 truck than a car. If a car breaks someone is late for dinner. If a truck breaks it can not only kill others but supply chains are disrupted and people who make money managing logistics notice. They need to work and work mostly flawlessly. So the first clients will all be beta testers. That knowledge incorporated into build processes before the main assembly plant is completed next year. Very cautious and well done. It will be 2026 before we really see Semi hitting it's stride but as soon as orders open back up we'll buy 2.

 

[bigsmooth125]

Tesla investor relations is awful. I’ve signed up get emails at EoQ of shareholder documents, signed up for the lottery to attend events etc and I’ve NEVER gotten any correspondence in any form from tesla. I wrote to tesla investor relations directly by email and never heard anything back either.

Sounds like their customer service.