Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Starsheeps were meant to fly

Rams up, and touch the sky.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

All I stated was that Musk's word isn't always final

Yeah. No. That’s not what you said.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think nobody believes Elon anymore. His bold claims have come back to bite him in the ass. And Tesla is going so far against the grain from a technology standpoint for FSD, a strategy literally no one else is adopting, that it just isn’t believable that they’re going to accomplish FSD.

Even as a long term shareholder and Tesla fanboy, autopilot is cool and everything but I don’t think they can do FSD. The system is still fairly rudimentary and the experience has not been compelling enough to warrant FSD discussion. Just the promise that it might one day make it there via software. I have my doubts.

Then someone broke the speed of sound and now everyone does it. Either open your eyes or take your ball and go home.

 

[Krugerrand]

Those are the projected specifications according to the official website: Electric Adventure is here.

Okay, then. I’d give some serious odds against on that but it’s against forum rules.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anybody have any insights about when and in what classification these obligations will appear in the Income Statement?

Yes. Rounding Errors: $3.5 M

(Except that's the retail price of 14 roadsters. Telsa will deduct their markup)

 

[AlMc]

If they cannot agree by now, why will they agree by the 25th? Call the Judge.

This is exactly what the judge indicated they 'should' do. They were required to spend a minimum of one hour within two weeks of the hearing to try to come to a resolution and IF they were making progress the judge would extend the deadline.

Makes total sense to me. Neither side wants the judge to rule. The SEC because they will lose (IMO), EM's side because the SEC will appeal OR find another tweet to file another contempt charge. They both know the original agreement is too vague. It needs to be fixed. Fixed, but not totally thrown out.

 

[MP3Mike]

Those are the projected specifications according to the official website: Electric Adventure is here.

Projected real world range or EPA range?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don’t, I think each strategy has its pros and cons. But for example Elon’s claim of “we have more data than anyone” isn’t really valid to me because all that data has not translated to a truly compelling product offering. Even WITH all that data....it’s still a pretty basic system that can kill you if you’re not careful. So I just don’t see this FSD narrative that he’s pushing. To me that’s unlikely to change even after the investor day on autopilot because I’m sure they’ll show off some previously recorded or pre mapped demo and go into future hypotheticals without actual real world tangible effects.

You would benifit from taking a statistics class. Data is King! But you probably already know that and just spreading doubt because?
This thread has suddenly gone FUD rich with FSD attacks. Two months ago, silence. To me, a clear indication of Tesla success and evidence of fear from those about to lose something.
What do you stand to lose DocZ?

 

[Krugerrand]

If they cannot agree by now, why will they agree by the 25th? Call the Judge.

They only talked for over an hour (read less than two). Everyone grabs coffee, a danish, chit chats about the weather, awkward silence, and that’s 20 minutes gone already.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Artful Dodger]

What prevents the 2170 battery chemistry from being used in the 18650 cans? Those are just little bottles, what's inside can (and is) changed any time. What am I missing here?
Panasonic makes the 18650 cans in Japan apparently in sufficient quantities for ~ 100,000 S & X so, why not continue, just fill the bottle with the new sauce.

What makes you think they haven't? Panasonic switched chemistries in the Japanese 18650s when Telsa replaced the S85 with the S90. Same number of battery cells; more energy.

The S100 has a new pack design with more of the same 18650 cells.

Jack Rickard proved that current 18650s and 2170s have exactly the same gravimetric and volumentric energy density in his teardown test last month on Youtube.

TL;dr Panasonic switched chemistries years ago.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think there is going to be a large step jump in the technology over the next 18 months.

Multiple step jumps in half that time based on my diving experience. The acceleration of FSD progress (that Elon spoke of in the podcast) should track quite closely to number of cars using EAP today which just keeps growing. I'm still freaking out at freeway diving, including HOV lane inclusion, all in a single update.
In reality, it may be years before it will be allowed by law to go without driver, but believing is what will drive sales and $TSLA SP. We've already seen someone thinking that 2x safety records is not enough and they'd need 10x. Although BS and I expect that FUD argument to get fierce by year end, it still won't affect Tesla growth because it will be so obviously real this year. What a gift watching this unfold. And my Dad thought TVs where big...
My choice in the Model 3 Tesla was specifically motivated because of FSD potential back in 2016. My only dissapointments stem from delays, but Elon's doing way better than I at keeping R&D on schedule so I completely understand. History will look back at how fast it all happened, seemingly out of nowhere... Voila, FSD!

 

[DocZ]

You would benifit from taking a statistics class. Data is King! But you probably already know that and just spreading doubt because?
This thread has suddenly gone FUD rich with FSD attacks. Two months ago, silence. To me, a clear indication of Tesla success and evidence of fear from those about to lose something.
What do you stand to lose DocZ?

Ridiculous. I’ve owned TSLA since 2013 and also have a Model X. Bought more shares in the last 2 weeks. Buying the new refreshed Model S when it comes out.

Of course, any attempt to have a reasonable discussion on here about real world translation of Elon promises is met with comments like this.

“Spreading doubt” because AP is not yet compelling and Elon promises a lot. See FSD AP demo from 2016.

 

[scaesare]

But you understand the point.

Indeed.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ridiculous. I’ve owned TSLA since 2013 and also have a Model X. Bought more shares in the last 2 weeks. Buying the new refreshed Model S when it comes out.

Of course, any attempt to have a reasonable discussion on here about real world translation of Elon promises is met with comments like this.

“Spreading doubt” because AP is not yet compelling and Elon promises a lot. See FSD AP demo from 2016.

I can't square this then. You bash Tesla on lack of trust while claiming you bought Tesla stock two weeks ago and own their vehicles? Who does that?
Do you have and use all features of EAP and did you pay for FSD?
Yes I saw the 2016 video and yes I was bummed it wasn't ready when my car was. But I bought it anyway for the full rebate and still invested in EAP + FSD up front knowing all this. Again, I cannot square your statements.

 

[Sancho]

Yes, the bold claim that Tesla will show the world an EV is not simply a glorified golf cart.

Yes, the bold claim Tesla would make compelling EVs that beat all comers in performance metrics.

Yes, the bold claim Tesla would make a really good car that could be had for 35k US and have no less than 200 miles of range and 0-60 faster than you can burn toast and be the safest vehicle and capable if supercharging and, and.

Yes, the bold claim they’d build their own GF and it would produce more batteries than the test of the world combined.

Yes, the bold claim that Tesla would build its own charging network all over the globe.

Yes, all have come back to bite Elon in the arse. Shame on him!

They’ll do FSD. I’ve not a clue when and frankly doesn’t matter in the scheme of things. That guy is the most determined individual to ever walk this planet. I’ve zero doubt because I’ve been paying attention to the amazing accomplishments to date, not whether they finished on a specific date or not. Seems to me the accomplishments should be the focus not the timeline. Seems to me the accomplishments should be what determines future possibilities not the timeline.

Yes, I believe Elon. Next week, next month, next year, next decade. Don’t care.

Not only do I believe in Elon, but I’m stunned on how fast he is accomplishing everything. Put Elon’s own time projections aside, and he’s ahead of everyone else’s EV projections.

Elon’s time projections are not lies, nor fantasies. They are his honest belief of how fast things should happen.

When my wife asks me how long my meeting will run she takes my answer and doubles it. If I say I’ll be home in two hours, she knows I will be home in four. Works every time.

When Elon gives a time projection, I add six months. Works every time.

 

[TradingInvest]

Ridiculous. I’ve owned TSLA since 2013 and also have a Model X. Bought more shares in the last 2 weeks. Buying the new refreshed Model S when it comes out.

Of course, any attempt to have a reasonable discussion on here about real world translation of Elon promises is met with comments like this.

“Spreading doubt” because AP is not yet compelling and Elon promises a lot. See FSD AP demo from 2016.

Elon made a lot of predictions in the past 15 years. Based on my observation, most of his promises and predictions materialize in the end. Though many of them are late than originally predicted. Name one he said he will do, but in the end he said sorry, we can't do it.

There were 3 instances I thought for sure he would fail, but turns out I was wrong: reuse rocket, Model X falcon door, building 100% Tesla owned factory in China.

I don't remember when he first predicted FSD. I remember he said to achieve FSD in 2 years, after another year people can sleep in the back. I'm sure it has been late than originally predicted, if it's achieved next year, the delay is not too bad from my point of view. Considering how difficult FSD is, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes longer.

 

[Carl Raymond]

This thread has suddenly gone FUD rich with FSD attacks. Two months ago, silence. To me, a clear indication of Tesla success and evidence of fear from those about to lose something.

Time for an updated list of those who fear Tesla:
Uber. Waymo. Lyft.
Taxi drivers.
Oil.
Coal.
Auto makers.
Auto dealers.
Auto repairers.
Auto insurers.
Media (one quarter of revenue comes from Auto).

Extend to SpaceX and Boring and the list gets longer.

 

[powertoold]

I think he said fsd would be feature complete in 2019 and reliably so 1-2 years after. So he might be on time in this case (depending on autonomy event).

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have a strong belief it will dip with the Q1 report. Nothing that I’ve seen or read leads me to believe there will be a surprise positive. Not that it’s not possible, just that the scenario for a dip is more likely.

The mainstream financial media will LIE about the Q1 report no matter what it contains. Remember how in early October they falsely reported 2018Q3 production numbers as a 'miss' when in fact it was a 'beat', dropping the SP? Corrected hours or days later? But not before being reprinted in syndication by hundreds of media outlets. Those outlets do the damage, and they never print the retraction.

Then on Oct 26 at 2:00 pm (one day after the big beat on the 2018Q3 ER), and with TSLA up $31 intraday, the WSJ posted a fraudulent 'hit piece' that dropped the SP $20 in a few minutes. And the SP only slowly recovered, closing up only $16 for the day. That is two billion seven hundred sixty-eight million dollars ($2.768b) in Shareholder value destroyed in 2 hours by the fraudulent reporting by the WSJ.

Here is the daily chart from Oct 26, 2018:

2018Q3 ER was a surprise 'beat' so WSJ knowingly published a false story to 'engineer a dip' to help unnamed shortz exit their positions. This is fraud. The SEC remained silent.

Wall St is corrupt. The Wall St Urinal is their wholey pwned subsidiary. They have others.

Despicable behavior all around. The 1st Amendment right of "Freedom of the Press" should offer no more cover to WSJ criminals than "Freedom of Religion" protects predator priests.

Where is the DOJ? Enforce the law. Lock them up. Do we need to call the Hague? Or do we need to move TSLA off the US exchanges?

This criminality and racketeering can not be tolerated indefinately. The mission is too important.