Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Not only do I believe in Elon, but I’m stunned on how fast he is accomplishing everything. Put Elon’s own time projections aside, and he’s ahead of everyone else’s EV projections.

Elon’s time projections are not lies, nor fantasies. They are his honest belief of how fast things should happen.

When my wife asks me how long my meeting will run she takes my answer and doubles it. If I say I’ll be home in two hours, she knows I will be home in four. Works every time.

When Elon gives a time projection, I add six months. Works every time.

In our house if anyone is more than 5 minutes late we send out the National Guard and then have to listen to an hours long lecture about why that’s not acceptable behavior, followed by an exhaustive list of no less than 83 of the most horrifying possibilities that didn’t happen but could have in that five minutes. I have my doubts, though, that you can Scarface a body in that length of time.

 

[oneday]

In our house if anyone is more than 5 minutes late we send out the National Guard and then have to listen to an hours long lecture about why that’s not acceptable behavior, followed by an exhaustive list of no less than 83 of the most horrifying possibilities that didn’t happen but could have in that five minutes. I have my doubts, though, that you can Scarface a body in that length of time.

This sounds more like a dog person to me.

 

[Beltsbear]

The R1T is going to have 400+ real world mileage?

There is room. But the cost will be very high.

 

[Krugerrand]

This sounds more like a dog person to me.

Words like that get you disagrees. Consider this the first and last warning.

 

[EVNow]

I think he said fsd would be feature complete in 2019 and reliably so 1-2 years after. So he might be on time in this case (depending on autonomy event).

By the end of 2021 - Tesla will not have FSD. Yes, they may have Navigate on AutoPilot in non-highways. But that is not FSD. They won't have a robo taxi service.

IMO.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The mainstream financial media will LIE about the Q1 report no matter what it contains. Remember how in early October they falsely reported 2018Q3 production numbers as a 'miss' when in fact it was a 'beat', dropping the SP? Corrected hours or days later? But not before being reprinted in syndication by hundreds of media outlets. Those outlets do the damage, and they never print the retraction.

Then on Oct 26 at 2:00 pm (one day after the big beat on the 2018Q3 ER), and with TSLA up $31 intraday, the WSJ posted a fraudulent 'hit piece' that dropped the SP $20 in a few minutes. And the SP only slowly recovered, closing up only $16 for the day. That is two billion seven hundred sixty-eight million dollars ($2.768b) in Shareholder value destroyed in 2 hours by the fraudulent reporting by the WSJ.

Here is the daily chart from Oct 26, 2018:

View attachment 398402


2018Q3 ER was a surprise 'beat' so WSJ knowingly published a false story to 'engineer a dip' to help unnamed shortz exit their positions. This is fraud. The SEC remained silent.

Wall St is corrupt. The Wall St Urinal is their wholey pwned subsidiary. They have others.

Despicable behavior all around. The 1st Amendment right of "Freedom of the Press" should offer no more cover to WSJ criminals than "Freedom of Religion" protects predator priests.

Where is the DOJ? Enforce the law. Lock them up. Do we need to call the Hague? Or do we need to move TSLA off the US exchanges?

This criminality and racketeering can not be tolerated indefinately. The mission is too important.

I concur, so what's the smart play for some small gains on the stock next week? (Scary thought... this is well known and so people sell ahead of the fraudulent news, in turn causing even more damage... until the big pop.)
My strategy is unchanged. ~80% hold, and play the rest. But I blew all my powder recently (all in). So sell a few after Autonomy Day or just before?
I think DocZ is just warming up with mention of the 2016 video. Bet that will be the hit piece "No better after 3 yrs"
Do these people even have kids?

 

[oneday]

I concur, so what's the smart play for some small gains on the stock next week? (Scary thought... this is well known and so people sell ahead of the fraudulent news, in turn causing even more damage... until the big pop.)
My strategy is unchanged. ~80% hold, and play the rest. But I blew all my powder recently (all in). So sell a few after Autonomy Day or just before?
I think DocZ is just warming up with mention of the 2016 video. Bet that will be the hit piece "No better after 3 yrs"
Do these people even have kids?

Certainly can’t tell you what the smart play is, my short term plays have been wrong 50% of the time.

I am going to pick up some weeklies Monday morning, most likely atm or slightly otm, and sell them Wednesday before earnings drop, I figure if the stock stays flat, the increase in IV might offset the time decay.

 

[CaliBear1]

Are those the naughty bits?

You have to look at the software change and see how many of the bits are ones and how many are zeroes. The ones obviously weigh more.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Tesla pulls off FSD without MobileEye, then the split was worth it. Tesla can keep all those profits instead of sharing with MobileEye.

MobileEye was never going to achieve FSD. There would have been no FSD profifts to share. In fact their public reason for the split is because Tesla wanted to move too fast for them, and they had liability risks.

TL;dr MobileEye == SAE Level 2 autonomy at best.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Q2 ‘18?

Yeah, climbed $38 during the After-hrs session on Aug 1, 2018. Nobody is expecting that kind of a surprise on Apr 24, 2019.

Here's the Aug 1st chart:

 

[RobStark]

O.T. For those that wanted a Top 10 Countries CO2 emissions per capita vid

 

[adiggs]

Multiple step jumps in half that time based on my diving experience. The acceleration of FSD progress (that Elon spoke of in the podcast) should track quite closely to number of cars using EAP today which just keeps growing. I'm still freaking out at freeway diving, including HOV lane inclusion, all in a single update.
In reality, it may be years before it will be allowed by law to go without driver, but believing is what will drive sales and $TSLA SP. We've already seen someone thinking that 2x safety records is not enough and they'd need 10x. ...
...

2x, 10x. The competition better hope that the regulators are ok with something closer to 2x safer than 10x safer. And how many miles are the regulators going to require to certify a solution to turn it loose? What I'm seeing, and I think you're the same soulpedl, is that whatever the bar is that Tesla has to clear, it's going to be harder for everybody else to clear for the reasons that Elon's been talking about recently - Tesla has 99% of the data.

If it takes 10B miles that are 10x safer, how is anybody going to get 10B miles of any safety any other way than how Tesla's doing it? Every other company pursuing autonomy is going to have to augment their strategy and find a fleet they can deploy driver assist in to customers and get miles watching over regular people's shoulder, as Tesla's been doing, and offering them autopilot.

Except when Tesla has autonomy ok'd and in production, why are new consumers en masse going to settle for autopilot when they can have a car that drives them, is 2x-10x safer than them driving themselves, and they just bought back that commuting time to do at least some other stuff.


Of all the big markets I see Tesla disrupting, or indicating interest in disrupting:
- luxury sedans
- premium sedans
- luxury SUVs
- premium SUV/CUV
- retail pickup truck
- commercial truck (class 3-8 eventually, starting at the top)
- utility power storage
- solar power generation
- retail power storage
- autonomous personal vehicles
- autonomous commercial vehicles

The market disruption that I think is arriving fastest and soonest and most completely is autonomous personal vehicles. And it also happens to be about the closest to a software disruption of all of them, at least to get started and while it's sweeping through the capable existing Tesla fleet.


I also think that unintentionally, the regulators are going to make it so hard for the first one through the gate, it's going to be nearly impossible for there to be a #2 unless #2 is VERY close behind #1 in being ready to come to market. Consumers will simply shift their autonomous purchases to #1 when they're available, and there won't be money flowing to competition that isn't very close on the heels of #1.

(All MHO)

 

[SOULPEDL]

If it takes 10B miles that are 10x safer, how is anybody going to get 10B miles of any safety any other way than how Tesla's doing it? Every other company pursuing autonomy is going to have to augment their strategy and find a fleet they can deploy driver assist in to customers and get miles watching over regular people's shoulder, as Tesla's been doing, and offering them autopilot.

Except when Tesla has autonomy ok'd and in production, why are new consumers en masse going to settle for autopilot when they can have a car that drives them, is 2x-10x safer than them driving themselves, and they just bought back that commuting time to do at least some other stuff.


Of all the big markets I see Tesla disrupting, or indicating interest in disrupting:
- luxury sedans
- premium sedans
- luxury SUVs
- premium SUV/CUV
- retail pickup truck
- commercial truck (class 3-8 eventually, starting at the top)
- utility power storage
- solar power generation
- retail power storage
- autonomous personal vehicles
- autonomous commercial vehicles

The market disruption that I think is arriving fastest and soonest and most completely is autonomous personal vehicles. And it also happens to be about the closest to a software disruption of all of them, at least to get started and while it's sweeping through the capable existing Tesla

Great point! Stock just went up in my mind.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Musk met with Modi? Confirmed that they'll enter India in 2019? Well, that's news, if this is accurate... Unsourced, just a picture:

नमो on Twitter

Lol, yeah that's a still grabbed from a video published on Sep 27, 2015 when Modi toured the Fremont factory with Elon (view on YouTube starting at 1:05).

Here's a frame grab from a few seconds before the picture above:

Notice how the Tweet cleverly crops the image so that you can JUST BARELY see the top of the nosecone on a PRE-REFRESH Model S?

Jolly Jokers. India's not getting Tesla anytime soon. Watch for a change in their local manufacturing laws before Tesla builds anything there.

Watch the whole video here:

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am a bit behind. But this is not accurate. Some vehicles let you upgrade the gas tank size. My 2011 F150 came with a 28 gallon tank. I upgraded to the 35 gallon tank.

Lol, Mad Max upgrade? Diesel-grate? Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

I just read something on reddit, but can't figure out how to link it here. Help?

Under r/teslamotors, "Interesting insight on the state of autonomy from the founder of Creative Destruction Labs and AI Expert" Starts out pessimistic, but read what the guru says deeper in! 12 hrs ago now.

Paraphrasing... Basically, on FSD, first to the data owns it ALL just like Google owns the search engine. Between Waymo and Tesla, Tesla likely wins. "Waymo's approach is limited both in use cases and volume of data." There is more...

Now I get why this is game, set, match - as Musk puts it. Very clear why. This is a must read, (especially for DocZ).

Definitely holding until after Apr 22. Next week, 300+ (barring fraudulent stories).

 

[Artful Dodger]

If they cannot agree by now, why will they agree by the 25th? Call the Judge.

The advantage to extension is the reply to the Court is now due on or before the 1st day of trading after the 2019Q1 ER and CC (April 25, 2019).

If news of a settlement comes out, watch for a bump. If rumours of a settlement come out, watch for increased Options action.

Overall, I think this benefits TSLA.

Cheers!

 

[EVMeister]

“Simulated engine noise”? Really?

Yes, one of the first thing I did with the I-PACE (before even driving) was turn that off. It is separate from the noise emitted outside the vehicle under 15mph or whatever it is. It's purely for the displeasure of the vehicle occupants.

 

[kyzhk]

I think EM really got major improvement in autopilot to show off this time: the neural net architected from scratch by Karpathy which can only run off hw 3.0 nn chip, as mentioned in Q3/Q4 ER.

His recent tweet is not making guesses about when it will be done, he just can't wait to show off what has been achieved already. He is in a really good mood as seen on twitter - so good that the horrible S&X delivery number did not seem to bother him one bit. My guess? They hit a major milestone in FSD development recently.

re: autonomy investor day being scheduled right before Q1 ER -
They will have major plans announced in Q1 ER (well, has to be Tesla network) which requires proofs of FSD progress from the autonomy day.

 

[Carl Raymond]

By the end of 2021 - Tesla will not have FSD. Yes, they may have Navigate on AutoPilot in non-highways. But that is not FSD. They won't have a robo taxi service.

IMO.

Not in the USA. But quite likely in one of 194 other countries.