Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ricohman]

Pierre or Justin?

Both! LOL!

 

[Unpilot]

While I think I have more than "zero basis for an informed opinion" I share your sentiment about betting against Elon. Back when I first heard about SpaceX and their ridiculous idea to land and re-use rockets... I was not kind. In fairness to myself, I was not alone.

Nevertheless, I think the moral of the story isn't that Elon achieved "the impossible" but that he proved the feasibility. I'm not sure how many people with knowledge of the subject thought it was impossible but rather that it was pointless because it was both difficult and unprofitable. And now SpaceX is beating the competitors because it is both achievable and profitable.

With FSD I think it is more about timelines and approach than about difficulty and utility. Tesla is not asserting the problem is easier, they are taking a different approach. And everyone agrees on the utility. I think the risky proposition here is not doubting Elon's optimistic FSD timeline, but doubting that Tesla's approach will not result in a usable FSD (for some definition of practical FSD).

This is a nice summation of how I veiw Tesla and EM.
He looks at problems and looks at possible outcomes. Tesla and SpaceX are both companies that "conventional wisdom" said were "impossible".

And yet here we are.

 

[humbaba]

@humbaba
obviously not a long term Science Fiction fan. (since late 1950's)
How are you gonna travel to other planets w/o the capability?
Chesley Bonestell had lots of paintings when humanity was more hopeful, now the pendulum has swung back
(and technology is catching up with where the dreamers imagined, and surpassing a wee bit)View attachment 398560

Hey, I'm good on classic scifi and have read Doc Smith (now that's classic stuff) -- where's our inertial drive? I actually found the cyberpunk approach refreshing because the "no limit" of classic scifi was wearing thin. But now that dystopian futures with anti-heroes are normal those tropes are also worn out. Good fiction isn't just having a compelling story, its also positing an interesting setting (and characters).

Please note there's a difference between the economics of putting satellites up and the requirements for doing interplanetary travel. Many folks said what Musk was proposing for SpaceX was absurd. He proved them wrong. The point is the danger of betting against Musk, and I was refining it to the situation it was applied to.

 

[Rarity]

So why am I so happy with Tesla's autopilot? Because it doesn't need to be "full autonomy" to have real utility for drivers. A useful subset adds value and NoA is an already available example of such a subset.

. . .

Regardless of semantics games I expect Tesla's FSD to progress and improve into the foreseeable future.

Every day, Tesla is adding value for drivers and investors through AP/FSD. And it is collecting cash on the barrelhead for it. This can't be bad.

 

[FreqFlyer]

If this quarter is going to take a profit hit because there were hundreds of millions dollars of product in transit to Europe and China, would not same issue take place in Q2?

 

[Doggydogworld]

In the extreme you have the Waymo/GM Cruise approach where you restrict the solution to a geographical box with specific routes.

Specific routes? Where did you see that?

 

[mongo]

If this quarter is going to take a profit hit because there were hundreds of millions dollars of product in transit to Europe and China, would not same issue take place in Q2?

If the in transit value stays constant, then the profit is unaffected. Otherwise, there would be an infinite cumulative effect. Think of it like stocking a new store, you need to buy inventory, which hits your bottom line, but after that your profit is driven by sales - wholesale cost.

 

[Zaxxon]

OT:

It looks like an excellent app and does what I was asking for and more. Its not the developer's fault that Tesla's API is the way it is. I'd like Tesla to refine their API so that it allowed finer grained control than all-or-nothing.

FWIW, Tesla's API isn't quite all-or-nothing, though your point is largely intact. You can get two types of API keys--with control and without. For example, TeslaFi will let you grab an API key (or provide it one yourself) that grants it read access to gather your stats, etc, but will not allow it to control locks, etc.

 

[HG Wells]

And while you are voting, consider this: Bernie Sanders Calls For An End To Fossil Fuels | CleanTechnica

Anybody remember the Energy Dollar ? Hint Hint

H.G. Wells, The World Set Free
But it seems that the earliest instance I can find is from H.G. Wells in The World Set Free, published in 1914. The dedication is to Frederick Soddy, physicist and radiochemist, who's done his own work on money.
Tracing the concept of money as backed by energy: H.G. Wells, 1914 : dredmorbius

 

[humbaba]

OT:



FWIW, Tesla's API isn't quite all-or-nothing, though your point is largely intact. You can get two types of API keys--with control and without. For example, TeslaFi will let you grab an API key (or provide it one yourself) that grants it read access to gather your stats, etc, but will not allow it to control locks, etc.

Hmmm... I must've missed that when I was looking at the API. Thanks!

[edit: I'm stilling not seeing it -- the docs are dated, but what I found is at Authentication]

 

[DocZ]

DocX, seems I was straying off the issue. It does boil down to trusting Tesla or not. I don't see lies, and maybe your def'n of a lie is simply his being late. I have very stong faith in FSD based on progress/experience, while others have lost faith because he is late and it's a seemingly impossible task. I also shared your same frustration a year ago at time of purchase, as stated. I'm way past that now; the ball is in motion and it's massive!
Meanwhile, with slamming comments like what I read, and continue to read by nay sayers and FUD alike, it's hard to separate FUD from honest skeptisizm which you may be having. But a hard pill when you have that many shares and talk like FUD. When I see FUD, I try and call it out and it is unfortunately emotional because, since you asked, I own 1050 shares and the rest is in ARKQ. I over bought a bit. Plus the planet...

My sincere appologies if I pegged you wrongly. Calling a truce and recommend reading that reddit article. It's an opinion piece, but sometimes you can just see logic presented and totally get it.
You will get FSD, given Tesla's current trajectory IMHO. Have a little faith and know that others on the fence could sell the stock based on what you wrote and that affects both of us.
At this point, I am leaning toward Tesla owning self driving, not just leading the way. Unless someone shows me that Google search suddenly has a real competitor like AltaVista or the financial system is so corrupt that Tesla fails as a company and is sued into the dirt, stock prices should sky rocket. If you don't have EAP or FSD, I highly recommend it.
There is a big difference between a "lie" and being delayed. No lie, the stock will likely hit 1,000 this decade IMO. When, is likely later than it should, so I am patient.

Fair enough. I don’t have any intention to spread FUD, just honest skepticism as you called it. I truly hope they get to FSD, and my Model S purchase will certainly include the FSD option. Just hard for me to be hopeful when current real world results seems nowhere near ready. Obviously software updates will hopefully change that, how dramatic those updates will be remains to be seen. But hey if they make it happen, and especially if your $1000 share price projection happens, that would be amazing!!

 

[scaesare]

If the in transit value stays constant, then the profit is unaffected. Otherwise, there would be an infinite cumulative effect. Think of it like stocking a new store, you need to buy inventory, which hits your bottom line, but after that your profit is driven by sales - wholesale cost.

Indeed.

This is known as "filling the pipeline". Once the pipeline is full, product is delivered at the remote end as you were filling it from the supply end, hence the only hit is the initial filling, or any increase in rate on the supply side. Conversely a decrease in supply rate actually is a net increase in profit while the pipeline drains to match.

 

[keydiver]

OT Sad news:

my Model S was hit in a parking lot today(other driver apparently drove off and didn’t leave a note or anything.

Its things like this that make me try to remember to put my wife's Model 3 in Sentry Mode every time I park lately. It gives me a little more peace of mind, especially seeing videos lately where the Sentry Mode caught the perps. I hope they add the voice activation I have heard rumored. What other car has this???

 

[VValleyEV]

Thanks again for pointing the app out. Sadly, I think I'll have to pass. Reading the description it appears that it would necessarily have to have access to the account/API which at present I'm not comfortable with, though that could change. Chalk it up to paranoia instilled from a career in security.

It looks like an excellent app and does what I was asking for and more. Its not the developer's fault that Tesla's API is the way it is. I'd like Tesla to refine their API so that it allowed finer grained control than all-or-nothing.

TeslaFi is a good choice IMHO. TeslaFi is web-based, so no matter how many times you log into the site, there is just one regular poll to your vehicle through Tesla servers. Others like Tesla Stats invoke the polling directly from the mobile app - so if you install one on your phone and one on your wife’s phone, that is two different polling cycles to keep your vehicle awake. If you have a table, well, that is another. That completely rules out anything but TeslaFi for me.

I would love to see Tesla acquire TeslaFi, and merge its statistics gathering capabilities into Tesla’s servers and the standard Tesla app, with no additional security risk. In the meantime I will put up with the risk (TeslaFI stores a token but not my credentials, if that is any consolation) to get the excellent statistics.

 

[AlMc]

Positive piece shared with me by DaveT: Elon Musk Poised to Declare Victory over the Legacy Automotive Industry at Tesla Autonomy Day

 

[Causalien]

Blame Trudeau. If the Canadian dollar wasn't so bad, Tesla would qualify. In 2009ish the Canadian dollar was worth more than the US dollar.

Cad used to be valued like oil. Trudeau manages to pull enough trucks to make tge market disassociate it with oil.

One of which was surprisingly his ability to influence bank of canada's interest rate decisions. And our inflation measures that exclude housing and gasoline cost is a joke.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Its things like this that make me try to remember to put my wife's Model 3 in Sentry Mode every time I park lately. It gives me a little more peace of mind, especially seeing videos lately where the Sentry Mode caught the perps. I hope they add the voice activation I have heard rumored. What other car has this???

Ya, wish I had it. The other business nearby got a video of it happening, but can’t make out the plates since the camera is so far away. Going to try to get the time stamp of when it shows them walking out of a restaurant and see if we/the police can get info on who paid just before then.

 

[RFernatt]

Only downside is unless it were windy, you wouldn't get any "idling" exhaust

Dry ice?

 

[KarenRei]

Specific routes? Where did you see that?

Waymo uses specific pickup and dropoff points and routes between them. It does not take arbitrary routes.

You can't just call a Waymo car to your house and tell it to go to your friend's house. The routes it takes between dropoff points, according to passengers (Waymo doesn't publish an official map), are often longer than necessary to avoid tricky situations, like left turns.

We finally talked to an actual Waymo passenger—here’s what he told us

Waymo, ever the masters of PR, bound all of their customers to non-disclosure agreements. The above ArsTechnica article only happened because a Waymo customer misunderstood and thought he'd been freed from his NDA - Waymo tried to muzzle him, ArsTechnica said that if they did then they'd write an article about how it's impossible to talk to anyone about whether Waymo actually works, so they relented.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Check Out This Amazing Look Inside The Tesla Fremont Factory

Always cool and interesting to see the manufacturing process at Freemont.