Lastly, short term demand is going to be down for S/X but long term there is a natural cycle for luxury cars being replaced over 6-7 years. 7 years ago the model S was a dream and now it dominates and in places like Germany and China S wasnt available to even compete for another year or more before volumes showed up. Model S will start a replacement cycle in ernest in 2021 where 50k/Y will need to be replaced.
Ah and then there is this little network effect thing accelerating market penetration. Most people with a business-leased BMW 7-series etc don't even know yet how much better a Model S P100D or just 100D would be.
A friend of mine that knew I had the Model X since 2016 and who drives BMW 7-series just now starts test driving Model X in earnest.
This may start accelerating now that more Model S/3/X are visible on the streets and in peoples personal network. So a softening in demand on S and X is definitely temporary, and partially caused by people that didn't actually want a Model S or X but didnt have the Model 3 and Y as a choice. People like me that paid kickstarter pricing early in 2016 for a Model X both to support tesla and be part of the electrical revolution as a private person are less likely to do that now, still waiting on that super payoff from the imaginary short squeeze that this time comes for sure
![Smile :) :)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
It is unlocking the rest of the market that will create the bigger demand waves, not early adopters replacing vehicles.
One more lastly, given the FCA deal, answer this question. Who is going to buy compliance PHEV/BEV and hybrids in a world with model 3 dominating and model Y coming and S/X refreshed as noted above? FCA is the only one who realizes just how screwed they are.
Which is interesting because they actually have a subsidized (compliance car) Fiat 500e AND the only (or first anyways) Plugin Hybrid minivan Chrysler Pacifica which both are sold in small numbers for ZEV credit. Really what they should do is partner with Tesla and buy components and partial designs.
Who is buying a bolt over an SR+? Read a story about a nightmare bolt road trip with no SC network. Who is buying a 200mi eturd it an ipace at 2x the price of a model 3? GF3 is placed nicely at maximize China ZEV credits as well. Who is going to buy crappy compliance cars in China with the SR bring mass produced locally?
All your compliance are belong to us!
Believe it or not, not one shoe fits all.
Two car families with the second car being a local towncar where the hatchback aspect is more important than range/supercharging may very well like cars like the Fiiat 500e and Bolt and VW eGolf more than a jetfighter in 2D style sedan from the future aka Model 3.
Would you put your teenager into a tesla as their first car? For safety maybe but on the other hand the power is just too tempting. Tesla is answering some to that by allowing parental limits on max speed, but accelerating into an intersection at the wrong time when a straggler thinks it is safe to plow though the intersection because they have certain expectations about how fast gas cars have been accelerating in the past that are no longer valid.
Once the real electric driving demand hits, the tesla gigafactories will be at max all the time and wait time for new cars will go up.
Lastly, some just love Audi and where cost is not a primary objective, they get the eTron, same with Jaguar, which I heard is actually quite fun to drive, just not as practical as the tesla (range, power efficiency, charging network, frunk storage...) But at least it comes in cobalt blue instead of california environmentally friendly soft colors.