Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

How much inventory did Tesla have in end of Q2?

Even if production drops in Q3.. there is a chance of higher deliveries with the price cuts and inventory clear up...

Tesla reported 16 days of Inventory in their last 10-Q, and that is based on an industry standard 75-days of sales in a quarter. Supply-chain consultant Jeff Lutz said on "Brighter with Herbert" channel a few days ago that about 8 days of that inventory is "in-transit" either on ships or car carriers, but likely already sold and pending delivery. Jeff concludes that Tesla had 7 days or less of extra "sellable" inventory, which at Q2 production rates inplies about ~45K cars.

We've seen some estimates already for reduced August production in Shanghai during the switch-over to Model 3 "Highland", but it seems to have be on the order of 20K (and now production is higher going forward). Model Y at Giga Texas potentially is down for 2 weeks for production line upgrades according to Joe Tegtmeyer, but that's only 10K total Models Y. So, net-net, available inventory (~45K) is very close to enough vs the fewer cars produced (~30K) as Elon told us during the Q2 Conf. Call.

The more interesting situation is with Giga Shanghai. It seems that initial "Highland" production was mostly put on ships bound for Europe to facilitate a Oct 1st roll-out of the new product in both China and Europe. That means that those shiploads may remain in inventory for the end of Q3, and deliveries would pad Q4. However, it might be only 2-3 ships, so it's likely the remaining 10K from available inventory. BTW, Fremont needs to crank out the cars to build inventory for Jan 1st, in preparation for the IRA "instant rebate".

What Folks ARE NOT talking about is that Tesla could claim an extra $500M in FSD deferred revenue in Q3 due to shipping "Navigate on City Streets". Also, we should expect a steady and significant increase in revenue from Tesla Energy from megapack deliveries. Finally, while Model S/X did get significant price cuts mid-quarter, this will help volume (which lowers cost-per-unit) and the FSD price cut from $15K to $12K may increase the FSD take-rate enough to offset the selling price (ie: if the take rate goes from 10% to 20% then the ASP remains the same for S/X and the price cuts pay for themselves!)

Cheers to the Price cutters!

 

[Tronguy]

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Getting this today. So this is happening. Do we know started from when?

It started back in July. And I'm currently mildly grinding my teeth.

For various retiree/IRA conversion follies, I thought that the $7500 rebate didn't apply to the SO and I. In a bit of a pique, I happened to check the irs.gov web site.

There was a change. The first time I looked at it a month and some ago it pointed out that if one's MAGI was too high, then No Rebate For You, period.

Now it says, "If your MAGI is below The Threshold in This Year or Last Year, you're in." So, we're in, and currently scrambling to see if we can pick up a M3 LR AWD by 9/30. Whee!

 

[dhanson865]

So there is a cybertruck reservation tracker spreadsheet, you may have seen

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--6OR9ECwSwZdkOtWkuslJVCyAAfQv1eJal1fdngfsk/edit#gid=982860347

Over 2,000,000 reservations estimated. Just rolled past 2M recently.

67.2% (over 2/3) of the reservations added FSD.

The vast majority of the FSD reservations are from the Dual Motor/Tri motor trims in the middle of the price range with very few single motor or quad motor reservations choosing FSD.

Keep in mind that reservations are listed by the original entry even if the number of motors for that trim isn't expected to happen at this point or going forward.

71.47% (well over 2/3) of the reservations are from people that identify themselves as never owning a Tesla vehicle prior to the reservation.

I'd suggest ignoring the total revenue line for multiple reasons.

 

[MC3OZ]

67.2% (over 2/3) of the reservations added FSD.

Some considered at CT reservation as a hedge against a future FSD price rise.

I think FSD and the CT will both do very well, but a certain percentage of these reservations will not follow though, However, with some many reservations queued up it doesn't matter, production will be the limiting factor for sometime.

 

[dhanson865]

Some considered at CT reservation as a hedge against a future FSD price rise.

I think FSD and the CT will both do very well, but a certain percentage of these reservations will not follow though, However, with some many reservations queued up it doesn't matter, production will be the limiting factor for sometime.

I honestly think if only 10% of the old reservations follow through there will be enough new customers after first delivery to keep up with production for a long time to come.

I expect demand to be very high, I also expect most reservations to fall through (literal definiton of most = more than 50%).

 

[2daMoon]

I expect demand to be very high, I also expect most reservations to fall through (literal definition of most = more than 50%).

I'm jiggy with a 50% fall through rate. It would bring my place in line down from somewhere over a million to half that.

But, it's still several years away before getting mine no matter how you slice it.

I'll just keep thinking about what the SP will be doing as I wait , while hoping that Cathy Wood is actually a pessimist with her outlook for a 1500-2000 SP by 2027.

 

[Knightshade]

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Getting this today. So this is happening. Do we know started from when?

This has been happening for a while now, was announced mid-July for any new vehicle delivered between July 20 and Sept 30.

https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-transfer#:~:text=You%20can%20transfer%20an%20FSD,from%20one%20vehicle%20to%20another.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Canadian here. In my Tesla app, under Account/Charging, there’s a item that says Membership for Non-Teslas. Clicking on that gets me to the following page:

View attachment 975670

Hey, me too! (Canadian) And we just got my partner a Bolt! (Why? it's cheaper, smaller, and has a less intimidating interface than my Model 3 - yes, these are issues before a Tesla will be the right car for everyone. Bring on Model 2!)

And CA$17 works out to about US$12.50. (Like many things we buy here, what's the US equivalent? which is why so many of our foods are sold in packages of 454 grams which is 1 lbs. Ah, living next to the biggest economy in the world!)

 

[EVMeister]

less intimidating interface than my Model 3

Funny thought. To younger people the Model 3 has a much more natural and less intimidating interface than most cars. It's much more similar to touchscreen devices such as smartphones that they're intimately familiar with.

 

[jerry33]

Funny thought. To younger people the Model 3 has a much more natural and less intimidating interface than most cars. It's much more similar to touchscreen devices such as smartphones that they're very intimately with.

For us older folks too. I looked at the Bolt and the massive array of buttons was more than I could handle

 

[Cobbler]

 

[JusRelax]

View attachment 975857

In the comments, this is calculated to almost a 19% increase in energy density. Was the standard range model Y 279 miles before being taken down? If so, once it comes back, we can expect it to be ~330 miles range. Easy drop-in for the current long range MY.

 

[cliff harris]

Funny thought. To younger people the Model 3 has a much more natural and less intimidating interface than most cars. It's much more similar to touchscreen devices such as smartphones that they're intimately familiar with.

1000% this. SO many stock analysts are of an age now where they have no idea what young people want, demand or will accept. All their golfing buddies are still talking about V8 engines and valves. Unless they have teenage kids, they have no idea how perfectly aligned the Tesla design ethos is with the next generation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In the comments, this is calculated to almost a 19% increase in energy density. Was the standard range model Y 279 miles before being taken down? If so, once it comes back, we can expect it to be ~330 miles range. Easy drop-in for the current long range MY.

Those cybercells are likely all going to Cybertruck. Model Y LR performs just fine w. its 2170-based pack. When there's some competition, then it'll be time to upgrade the Y.

Does beg the question though if Telsa is using a silicon anode to achieve that energy density. Would be nice if Jeff Dahn's NMC 5-3-2 recipe w. proven 16K-cycles lifespan was part of that... cells haven't aged out at 16K cycles, it's just that's how many they've been able to perform in the lab in the number of years the cell has been under test. Hi-Ho!

Cheers to the long-rangers!

 

[JusRelax]

Those cybercells are likely all going to Cybertruck. Model Y LR performs just fine w. its 2170-based pack. When there's some competition, then it'll be time to upgrade the Y.

Does beg the question though if Telsa is using a silicon anode to achieve that energy density. Would be nice if Jeff Dahn's NMC 5-3-2 recipe w. 16K cycles was part of that...

Cheers to the long-rangers!

Ah, good point - I did a quick read of the X/Twitter post and somehow assumed that it was stating that the Model Y would come back with a new version of the 4680 pack. This, however, is not the case and it's possible that the new 4680 cells will be used exclusively for the Cybertruck as Cybercells.

 

[Todd Burch]

Is there an official source for the 4680 improvements or is this all just rumor at this point?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I'm jiggy with a 50% fall through rate. It would bring my place in line down from somewhere over a million to half that.

But, it's still several years away before getting mine no matter how you slice it.

I'll just keep thinking about what the SP will be doing as I wait , while hoping that Cathy Wood is actually a pessimist with her outlook for a 1500-2000 SP by 2027.

Well I don't think in dollars or pounds any more, but I hope my CT costs less than 100 $TSLA

 

[Singuy]

So there is a cybertruck reservation tracker spreadsheet, you may have seen

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--6OR9ECwSwZdkOtWkuslJVCyAAfQv1eJal1fdngfsk/edit#gid=982860347

Over 2,000,000 reservations estimated. Just rolled past 2M recently.

67.2% (over 2/3) of the reservations added FSD.

The vast majority of the FSD reservations are from the Dual Motor/Tri motor trims in the middle of the price range with very few single motor or quad motor reservations choosing FSD.

Keep in mind that reservations are listed by the original entry even if the number of motors for that trim isn't expected to happen at this point or going forward.

71.47% (well over 2/3) of the reservations are from people that identify themselves as never owning a Tesla vehicle prior to the reservation.

I'd suggest ignoring the total revenue line for multiple reasons.

View attachment 975750

As a disclaimer, there were around 1.2m reservations for CT prior to Tesla pulling the ability to choose, so these surveyed numbers are misleading. It's actually impossible that 67% of the people has fsd when 60% of the people had the ability to pick if they want it. So survey may suggest like 100% of the people who answered had reservations before Oct 2021.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Further to the NMC cells now under development at Dr. Jeff Dahn's laboratory in Halifax, the latest published test results show no degradation of the cells over the last several thousand cycles: That's right: the cells appear effectively to have stopped aging, and are cycling 4x daily with well over 90% of their Day-0 capacity.

Further, due to additonal research done by a grad student at this lab, these cells may have a shelf-life of 100 years: (no parasitic side-reactions are occurring)

• Dal researchers' chance discovery could help extend battery life by replacing tape that causes self‑discharge | Dalhousie University (Jan 16, 2023)

In fact, newly-hired scientists at Dr. Dahn lab have recently added new test equipment at the cell-test facility to monitor 'out-gassing' of cells, which seems to be a directly-measurable by-product of the side-reactions associated with cell degradation. Significantly, the NMC 5-3-2 cells now under test don't show this off-gassing:

• EXCLUSIVE: Inside the Tesla-funded Jeff Dahn Research Group labs | electricautonomy.ca (2023-08-29)

Fast-forward to the end-game: what if Tesla announced a 20-year warranty on it's new Cybertruck battery packs? What if it announced a hundred?! (well, seriously...) Or how about a 4-million mile warranty on Semi batteries? The economic implications for the logistics industry are mind-bogglingly good. Perhaps half the cost of a diesel semi? Or is it 1/4?

Cheers to the Scientists!

 

[winfield100]

Some considered at CT reservation as a hedge against a future FSD price rise.

I think FSD and the CT will both do very well, but a certain percentage of these reservations will not follow though, However, with some many reservations queued up it doesn't matter, production will be the limiting factor for sometime.

OT
my reasoning for CT single motor was

CT > 5.5 power walls energy storage
CT cost < 5 power walls
CT = ~5.5 power walls PLUS free wheels plus extraneous plugs plus inverters plus OTA updates, etc