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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla wrote a 500 page briefing for shareholders and created a separate website on the subject. You've visited it already haven't you?

They conveniently left out how much of a tax burden Texas will be
 
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Tesla are stupid so ofc they will make stupid decisions such as throwing away money. Pick your point of view.

I think the truth is that nobody knows for sure. There are companies that have such an unlimited mountain of cash and so few ideas that they need to put money into anything that seems like it has future potential. Tesla is not really in that camp, especially with an auto manufacturing side that needs to grow, refresh models etc. I think Elon's message a few days ago that they're literally betting the company on FSD/AI can be taken literally. They need to go all in, but in nobody knows:
1. If the slope at which AI improves is enough to make a commercial autonomous driving service.
2. If it's even possible to make FSD work with the current technology / sensor stack.
 
Why is everyone so excited about the robotaxi platform itself? In my mind, the game has always been FSD. The car in which you run it is almost inconsequential, given that Tesla already has a huge fleet of "partner" cars and can also build an inventory by raising sale prices. I don't see the point of investing "expensive" money into building the car, when that money can be put to better use in FSD. Once FSD is approved/ready to roam, the stock price will increase dramatically enough to make the required capital for the robotaxi platform almost "free". Surely the value of their current limited capital is higher. A dedicated robotaxi platform can only bring minor efficiency improvements in the cost per unit.

What if there are things you haven't considered that would make this theory appear ill-founded?

Like, perhaps, the fellow who is running the show has in his mind a system like those portrayed in movies like Blade Runner, or Demolition Man where a car is your robot pal that takes you where you want to be.

Consider the advantages of a task-specific design, like the London Cab, that has been perpetuated for decades, because it works. What is it that makes it more appealing to customers than using a standard sedan? Ease of access, interior room to accommodate persons or parcels, consistency in the quality of the experience and the expectations all figure into what makes it successful.

Who are the target users, and, who are the target buyers of a Robotaxi?

What advantages would a vehicle produced in significant quantities with no controls for humans have over normal cars in applications where the majority of customers consider a service preferable to ownership?

Look into information on Robotaxis from sources like Ark Invest, and Tony Seba for what to expect and why to expect it as part of the future.