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My take on the wording is that the unboxed next gen $25k model 2 is totally still a thing, and thats what mexico is for.
In the interim, we will get model 2.5, built on the same line as 3/Y (or at least in the same factory), that probably shares SOME components with 3/Y.
But I don't think they would make a big deal out of just offering a model 3 with a smaller battery or even a hatchback model 3.
Also from a branding POV, it would make sense to have model 2.5 entry level compact, then 3/Y crossover and S/X full size.
My model Y has so much luggage space its actually inconvenient. Even a weekly grocery shop just rattles around back there :D
The SMALL SUV segment (like the HRV vs. the larger CRV from Honda or XC40 vs. the larger XC60 from Volvo) is one of the hottest growing sales segments.
 
Could this explain the push back of Model Y update? It will more thorough than the Model 3 refresh, with possible 48V architecture.
Maybe, I don't have a good feel for that.

I would say delayed rather than dead,

But a fairly significant delay, probably around 2-3 years perhaps longer, they probably don't have a definite schedule.
Yeah, I probably should have said "mothballed".

I take it to mean the "Model 2" has changed, not died. Sounds like it's going to be a mixture of current designs and the unboxed design but built on existing (or modified) M3/MY lines. This utilizes existing infrastructure which will allow the "Model 2" to enter production earlier than they said before, so early to mid 2025 maybe?
They can call anything a Model 2, of course. But IMHO they won't build the Model 2 they spent the last couple years designing in 2025 (or 2026). Their 3/Y manufacturing lines are pretty hardwired. It'll be a stretch for them to build multiple variants of 3/Y on these lines, much less a completely different class of vehicle.

The good news is Musk got the message from the falling share price. He realized he can't completely neglect vehicle sales growth and focus solely on Robotaxi. The 50% narrative may be dead, but maybe he can sell a 20% + Robotaxi narrative.
 
In some ways this pivot seems very un-Elon-like ( to adopt a more traditional manufacturer's approach to new models), but it could be any number of things like:

1. The 3 and Y already share a lot so this is just an extension of that idea
2. Maybe folks were telling Elon what they "thought" he wanted to hear in terms of progress on unboxed and existing sales and when he determined the truth, he took action...in a big way.
3. Elon gets to have his cake (RoboTaxi) and eat it too (new models....just not unboxed) now
4. CAB is wrong and is just speculating.....like everyone else

Good times.

My guess is they want to focus in on consolidating their current products and focus on Autonomy/costs etc especially with the economic climate, prudent and WS will love it. The unboxed/cheaper car will come in time I believe but the race to FSD is the key driving force. Hopefully the CC gives more answers.
 
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Very well worded deck, the part about the 2.5 generation will put a nice stop on the bleeding for now and provide some momentum going into the vote in June. There's some bad news coming from China right now (very bad sales in the first few weeks of Q2), but the news about this intermediate generation should put a stop to sales having a serious influence on the stock price.

I think that the company (at least judging from the deck) did an amazing job to re-align on the best possible trajectory for growth. Reduce investments in cars, but still create new models with the existing platform, while pushing all of their energy into FSD, their true differentiator once everyone and their dog will start building a BEV. I've already exited half of my short position before closing time today and will exit the rest tomorrow, presuming the call doesn't reverse the trend.
 
Vehicle and Other Software
We rolled out FSD (Supervised) with a 30-day free trial to eligible cars in U.S. and Canada. FSD (Supervised) can change lanes, select forks to follow routes, navigate around vehicles and objects and make turns. We released Autopark to existing eligible FSD (Supervised) and Enhanced Autopilot customers. We are currently working on ride-hailing functionality that will be available in the future. We believe the Tesla software experience is best-in-class across all our products, and plan to seamlessly layer ride-hailing into the Tesla App.

So theoretically robotaxi could be only be a piece of software and prioritizing it might mean putting capex into compute now and setting up production of next generation platform (which is still mentioned in the Q1 24 letter btw, and no talk about robotaxi there - though on the other hand next gen platform could mean robotaxi hardware, but calling it a platform implies multiple models and that still makes it likely to at least also have a manual drive car in there)
 
If these new, more affordable models are coming in the next 6-18 months, why would anyone buy a 3 or Y? And why hasn't Tesla started taking deposits for the new models?

Because people want a Tesla now or soon. The new models haven't been revealed yet, why would you put a deposit down when you have no idea what you are buying?
 
Why is everyone so excited about the robotaxi platform itself? In my mind, the game has always been FSD. The car in which you run it is almost inconsequential, given that Tesla already has a huge fleet of "partner" cars and can also build an inventory by raising sale prices. I don't see the point of investing "expensive" money into building the car, when that money can be put to better use in FSD. Once FSD is approved/ready to roam, the stock price will increase dramatically enough to make the required capital for the robotaxi platform almost "free". Surely the value of their current limited capital is higher. A dedicated robotaxi platform can only bring minor efficiency improvements in the cost per unit.
 
130% QoQ compute growth. If we extrapolate it, that's 28x/year. Well above the 10x/year that seems to be standard nowadays. But it came a pretty hefty price. But the reason Tesla decided to do that was because they thought the decision to do it had a positive EV. Given the uncertainty the requirement to do the investment was likely a very high ROI. I would not be surprised if Elon is estimating the EV of the decision to spend $1B on compute was on the order of +$10B. Bears will disagree, Tesla are stupid so ofc they will make stupid decisions such as throwing away money. Pick your point of view.
 
The MY won't be #1 this year by the looks of things. Does that really matter? If they sell more cars, they sell more cars, even if it's a mix.
Of course it doesn’t really matter. Just like all the hand wringing didn’t and doesn’t matter. But SOMEBODY is going to try to tell me, you, us, them, everyone else that it does matter. That’s the whole point of it all. It matters because so and so says it does and if you don’t listen and agree; echo chamber blah, blah, blah, blah.