Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

What a difference a few minutes make.

 

[NicoV]

Yeah, I really like this.... take what already works, add anything since they were designed they already know how to do (48v, drive by wire, etc) that pulls out costs, and get another million cars produced and sold.... while you take your time figuring out the unboxed kinks for a robotaxi that isn't ready to be driverless anytime soon anyway

And maybe introduce a version with an even smaller battery. There are now in many places so much superchargers that some people may prefer charging more than paying more for the car. Would also make sense for a second or third car.

 

[Opus BC fan]

And just like that the shadows disappear and the fear subsides...

 

[DarkandStormy]

Even the massive naysayers will consider this a smart thing, right, @DarkandStormy? Using the existing lines and even some of the existing models to produce other models is the smart move.

It can also help manage demand peaks and valleys on the existing 3/Y when they alternate making other vehicles.

Ah, sounds like the Reuters story is being confirmed true then, eh?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Ah, sounds like the Reuters story is being confirmed true then, eh?

As I said, likely partly, but they didn't know the whole story. The lower cost/non-RT models aren't cancelled or even shelved. They are coming sooner, but the line was probably shut down.

 

[MP3Mike]

If he gets his compensation plan, does Tesla not still have to pay the lawyers?

I assume they would not. I think the "fully informed" shareholder vote would be used in the appeal to overturn the original decision, and award to the plantiff and their attorneys.

 

[H Mak]

After hours volume 12m already

 

[NicoV]

Driven by 2.7B$ inventory increase and 1B$ AI compute.
Not a bad reason IMO. It would have been much worse if it was caused by selling cars below cost.

And still 200M$ free cash flow. If Tesla had decided to somehow match the production with the consumption and not invest in extra AI compute, they would have had 3.9B$ free cash flow.

EDIT: I have to correct myself, free cash flow was negative -2.5B$. So without those items free cash flow could have been 1.2B$.

 

[t153]

Driven by 2.7B$ inventory increase and 1B$ AI compute.
Not a bad reason IMO. It would have been much worse if it was caused by selling cars below cost.

And if the earlier report somebody posted today about them signing a deal with LG for 4.3B worth of electrode material is true then there will be that too.

 

[Sudre]

Well, it's nice to be excited again! I don't want to get anyone's hopes up but it would be really interesting if after the call they update the site and we can order a model 2.3 (modified 3) or 2.Y (modified Y). "Well yah, we laid everyone off because the design is done and ready to roll!"

and NO! That's not going to happen but I can dream. My wife's Toyota Echo is over 20 years old and she's waiting for a smallish electric that has descent range. ~200 miles. That car the Europeans keep wanting.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Even the massive naysayers will consider this a smart thing, right, @DarkandStormy? Using the existing lines and even some of the existing models to produce other models is the smart move.

I think it's smart. Other OEMs have long built many different "models" from the same basic car. If they use different model names it could knock Model Y from the #1 spot, though.

Polished body dies take a long time, that's why I think any new model that starts production before 2H25 as announced on page 10 will have the same basic 3/Y bodies. But a 3-Hatch or Boxy-Y could appear shortly thereafter.

 

[2daMoon]

I would say delayed rather than dead,

But a fairly significant delay, probably around 2-3 years perhaps longer, they probably don't have a definite schedule.

I'd temper this with the fact that they have a prototype Unboxed line in Texas they had been working on for a year or so. Tesla may be further along on it than you think. Pausing development for the moment until it is closer to time to build GigaMexico.

It would be nice to see a casting-based Model 3/NextGen line deployed in Texas. Take up the slack for US sales so Fremont might be able to make some major upgrades.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Tesla wrote a 500 page briefing for shareholders and created a separate website on the subject. You've visited it already haven't you?

Tesla - Protecting Your Investment and Tesla’s Future

At this year’s Annual General Meeting of Stockholders, we will be asking you to help support the continuation of Tesla’s extraordinary growth by approving two important proposals unanimously recommended by the Tesla Board.

www.supportteslavalue.com

Thanks, but didn’t need your typical snark………

 

[SOULPEDL]

FYI, this quote was from the year 2020 so the concept goes back a ways. You wouldn't believe the flack I got from this and a couple more along the way.

At that time, I was quoting Wrights Law as being the main driver of cost reduction in Manufacturing. I did not foresee Optimus which would make this analysis even more likely.

IMO, Cathie Wood did not make a error in judgement when she stated this prediction as well (Model 3 is the "$25K vehicle"). I don't have the reference handy, but it's on this thread right after Battery Day; I came to this same conclusion independently.

For the EU sake (I hear ya, I've driven there enough to know your pain), I'm hoping for the smaller version as well. However, that would take much more change and add to costs. So a smaller version might need to wait a bit longer else Tesla could be in trouble from any delays due to big changes in vehicle designs. Again IMO.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I think it's smart. Other OEMs have long built many different "models" from the same basic car. If they use different model names it could knock Model Y from the #1 spot, though.

Polished body dies take a long time, that's why I think any new model that starts production before 2H25 as announced on page 10 will have the same basic 3/Y bodies. But a 3-Hatch or Boxy-Y could appear shortly thereafter.

The MY won't be #1 this year by the looks of things. Does that really matter? If they sell more cars, they sell more cars, even if it's a mix.

 

[MC3OZ]

I do not think this means model 2 is dead. In fact, the opposite. Model 2 (or whatever you want to call it) will be manufactured in a more compromised way than originally planned but it will be available sooner.

Tesla absolutely needs a lower priced variant for 2 main reasons

1) one does NOT need that much range, especially in europe

2) model 3 is even a large car for European roads.

Imho

Looking forward to CC

I can't see the width of Model 3/Y being reduced..

IMO the most logical smaller form is the same width and a slightly shorter and lighter body,

Just changing to 48V/800V/etherloop will remove a lot of weight and cost, allowing smaller battery sizes.

It might be possible to use the same front and rear castings with a shorter structural battery pack,

So the models may be 2-door with compromised rear seating.

it is also possible they are able to use the cheaper lighter Gen3 motors.

 

[Ellec]

Good clarification on the direction Tesla is going in. They are cutting costs, being sensible about next products and focusing on autonomy, teasing the ride hailing app (looks very slick). Numbers were a bit better than expected hence the SP spike, sell the rumour buy the news textbook example.

Q1 is often the worst quarter of the year so things should get better and better from here. Very excited about the future of this company and happy to be a long term investor!

 

[skybluecgreen]

The only "negatives" with this approach are:
a.) it won't generate the margins the unboxed process promised
b.) not the moonshot leap that was hoped for over what every other manufacturer does

It is really a pragmatic nod to the environment they/we are currently in and puts to bed the "only robotaxi!" fears even before the call...provided Elon doesn't well, you know. They already have one moonshot (the Cybertruck) right now so that's fine

Sorry about the 25k car not coming soon but trying not to get too hung up on it. I think the new 'variants' are a net positive. They will revive growth and also, exciting to me, is they should include improved FSD hardware which will enable improvements in autonomy- maybe level 3.

 

[cab]

In some ways this pivot seems very un-Elon-like ( to adopt a more traditional manufacturer's approach to new models), but it could be any number of things like:

1. The 3 and Y already share a lot so this is just an extension of that idea
2. Maybe folks were telling Elon what they "thought" he wanted to hear in terms of progress on unboxed and existing sales and when he determined the truth, he took action...in a big way.
3. Elon gets to have his cake (RoboTaxi) and eat it too (new models....just not unboxed) now
4. CAB is wrong and is just speculating.....like everyone else

Good times.

 

[cliff harris]

My take on the wording is that the unboxed next gen $25k model 2 is totally still a thing, and thats what mexico is for.
In the interim, we will get model 2.5, built on the same line as 3/Y (or at least in the same factory), that probably shares SOME components with 3/Y.
But I don't think they would make a big deal out of just offering a model 3 with a smaller battery or even a hatchback model 3.
Also from a branding POV, it would make sense to have model 2.5 entry level compact, then 3/Y crossover and S/X full size.
My model Y has so much luggage space its actually inconvenient. Even a weekly grocery shop just rattles around back there